Fed decision day — and the market's priced in a 90% chance of a hike.
Think about that for a second. Mixed economic data. Demand all over the place. Supply side still fragile. Several Fed officials sounding dovish. Chair Powell literally trying to stop the market from just mirroring itself.
And yet: 90%.
Meanwhile, traders are glued to the dot plot like it's some holy scripture — even as more people admit forward guidance has become a mess.
This is what happens after years of hand-holding. The Fed trained everyone to hang on every word, obsess over backward-looking data, and trust forecasts that turned out to be wildly wrong. Now breaking that habit? Nearly impossible.
The relationship between the Fed and markets has become codependent. And watching it try to evolve in real time is fascinating — and uncomfortable.
Think about that for a second. Mixed economic data. Demand all over the place. Supply side still fragile. Several Fed officials sounding dovish. Chair Powell literally trying to stop the market from just mirroring itself.
And yet: 90%.
Meanwhile, traders are glued to the dot plot like it's some holy scripture — even as more people admit forward guidance has become a mess.
This is what happens after years of hand-holding. The Fed trained everyone to hang on every word, obsess over backward-looking data, and trust forecasts that turned out to be wildly wrong. Now breaking that habit? Nearly impossible.
The relationship between the Fed and markets has become codependent. And watching it try to evolve in real time is fascinating — and uncomfortable.