#FedRateWatch , &
FOMC Day: Is This the Start of a New Hiking Cycle?
August core CPI printed +0.3% month-over-month (hottest since April), and markets have priced a 25bp hike this week at nearly 90%. I’m expecting the Fed to deliver that hike today and lift the target range to 3.75%–4.00%.
This doesn’t feel like a one-and-done. Sticky services inflation, elevated energy prices, and a still-resilient labor market give the Committee cover to stay restrictive. The September SEP/dot plot will be the real tell — if the median path shows another hike by year-end, the market will treat this as the start of a new tightening cycle rather than a one-off insurance move.
Asset impact if the hike lands:
• $BTC : Near-term bearish. Higher real rates and a stronger dollar usually pressure risk assets. Watch the $ psychological levels closely; any dovish press-conference language could spark a sharp bounce.
• Tech stocks: Clearly bearish. Growth names hate higher discount rates. Expect multiple compression, especially in high-duration AI and software names.
• $GOLD.US : Mildly bearish in the short term (stronger + higher opportunity cost), but supportive longer term if the hike is framed as “data-dependent” and growth starts to slow.
My plan:
I’m holding my core $BTC position (no leverage) and will only add on a clean break above the post-FOMC high. On the equity side I’ve reduced tech exposure and rotated some capital into cash and short-duration instruments. Gold is a small tactical long that I’m willing to hold through volatility.
What are you doing into the decision? Drop your BTC / stocks / gold view below.
#FedRateWatch
FOMC Day: Is This the Start of a New Hiking Cycle?
August core CPI printed +0.3% month-over-month (hottest since April), and markets have priced a 25bp hike this week at nearly 90%. I’m expecting the Fed to deliver that hike today and lift the target range to 3.75%–4.00%.
This doesn’t feel like a one-and-done. Sticky services inflation, elevated energy prices, and a still-resilient labor market give the Committee cover to stay restrictive. The September SEP/dot plot will be the real tell — if the median path shows another hike by year-end, the market will treat this as the start of a new tightening cycle rather than a one-off insurance move.
Asset impact if the hike lands:
• $BTC : Near-term bearish. Higher real rates and a stronger dollar usually pressure risk assets. Watch the $ psychological levels closely; any dovish press-conference language could spark a sharp bounce.
• Tech stocks: Clearly bearish. Growth names hate higher discount rates. Expect multiple compression, especially in high-duration AI and software names.
• $GOLD.US : Mildly bearish in the short term (stronger + higher opportunity cost), but supportive longer term if the hike is framed as “data-dependent” and growth starts to slow.
My plan:
I’m holding my core $BTC position (no leverage) and will only add on a clean break above the post-FOMC high. On the equity side I’ve reduced tech exposure and rotated some capital into cash and short-duration instruments. Gold is a small tactical long that I’m willing to hold through volatility.
What are you doing into the decision? Drop your BTC / stocks / gold view below.
#FedRateWatch
