The rate decision itself may be the easy part. The real market test starts when Powell speaks. With August core CPI rising 0.3% month-over-month and markets assigning a high probability to a 25bp hike, I’m less interested in debating whether the move happens and more focused on what the Fed signals afterward. A 25bp hike does not automatically mean “risk-off.” If the decision is already priced in, BTC and tech stocks could initially absorb the move and react more aggressively to guidance on future policy.
A hawkish path could strengthen the dollar and pressure liquidity-sensitive assets, while a less aggressive outlook could ease financial conditions. Gold will also be sensitive to real yields and dollar direction. My approach around FOMC is simple: I don’t want to chase the first candle. I’ll watch BTC’s reaction after the volatility settles, especially whether support holds or a breakout gets confirmed. The headline matters. The guidance matters more.
#FedRateWatch
$SYN
$LSK
$MARSCOIN
A hawkish path could strengthen the dollar and pressure liquidity-sensitive assets, while a less aggressive outlook could ease financial conditions. Gold will also be sensitive to real yields and dollar direction. My approach around FOMC is simple: I don’t want to chase the first candle. I’ll watch BTC’s reaction after the volatility settles, especially whether support holds or a breakout gets confirmed. The headline matters. The guidance matters more.
#FedRateWatch
$SYN
$LSK
$MARSCOIN
