I’ve been watching this Fed cycle closely, and September feels less about guessing the next headline and more about understanding what the data is forcing policymakers to confront.
The Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75% in July, but the vote was already split 9–3, with three officials preferring a 25bp hike. Since then, August CPI came in at 3.4% YoY, core CPI at 2.4%, while August payrolls rose 162K and unemployment stayed at 4.1%.
#FedRateWatch
So the tension is pretty clear: inflation is still above target, but the labor market isn’t showing the kind of deterioration that would make policy simple.
That’s why I’m watching the guidance as much as the decision itself.
Is today about one rate move, or about how long the Fed thinks restrictive policy may still be needed?
Sometimes the most important signal isn’t the rate. It’s what the Fed says it’s still worried about.
$AKE
$LSK
$SYN
The Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75% in July, but the vote was already split 9–3, with three officials preferring a 25bp hike. Since then, August CPI came in at 3.4% YoY, core CPI at 2.4%, while August payrolls rose 162K and unemployment stayed at 4.1%.
#FedRateWatch
So the tension is pretty clear: inflation is still above target, but the labor market isn’t showing the kind of deterioration that would make policy simple.
That’s why I’m watching the guidance as much as the decision itself.
Is today about one rate move, or about how long the Fed thinks restrictive policy may still be needed?
Sometimes the most important signal isn’t the rate. It’s what the Fed says it’s still worried about.
$AKE
$LSK
$SYN
