šŗšø FOMC SEPTEMBER: THE HIKE ISNāT THE REAL TRADE
A 25bps Fed hike may already be priced in.
The real question is: what comes after it?
August core CPI came in hot at 0.3% month-over-month, keeping inflation firmly on the Fedās radar and pushing rate-hike expectations close to 90%. That makes a 25bps move look increasingly likely. But I donāt think traders should automatically assume this means the beginning of a long hiking cycle.
For me, the first rate hike is only half the story.
If the Fed delivers 25bps and signals that this is a one-off adjustment, risk assets could actually get a relief bounce. But if policymakers make it clear that inflation is still too sticky and additional hikes could follow, that changes the game completely.
BTC: My short-term bias is cautious. A hawkish Fed could push yields and the dollar higher, creating pressure on Bitcoin. But because the hike is already heavily anticipated, I would rather trade the reaction than blindly short the announcement.
Tech stocks: This is where I see another major risk. Higher rates usually hurt high-duration growth and technology stocks because future earnings become less attractive when yields rise. A hawkish message could therefore hit Nasdaq and AI-related names harder.
Gold: Higher yields and a stronger dollar can create near-term pressure on gold. But if the Fed signals a pause after this move and yields start falling, gold could quickly regain momentum.
My plan is simple: Iām not chasing the first FOMC candle. I want to see the decision, the Fedās guidance, and the marketās reaction before taking a position. If BTC loses key support after a hawkish surprise, Iāll look for a short setup. If the hike comes with a clear āone-and-doneā message and BTC reclaims resistance, Iāll consider the bullish side instead.
The hike may be predictable.
The reaction wonāt be.
What are you trading after FOMC ā BTC, tech stocks, or gold?
Follow me for more real-time macro and crypto market setups.
#FedRateWatch
$AKE
$AIN
A 25bps Fed hike may already be priced in.
The real question is: what comes after it?
August core CPI came in hot at 0.3% month-over-month, keeping inflation firmly on the Fedās radar and pushing rate-hike expectations close to 90%. That makes a 25bps move look increasingly likely. But I donāt think traders should automatically assume this means the beginning of a long hiking cycle.
For me, the first rate hike is only half the story.
If the Fed delivers 25bps and signals that this is a one-off adjustment, risk assets could actually get a relief bounce. But if policymakers make it clear that inflation is still too sticky and additional hikes could follow, that changes the game completely.
BTC: My short-term bias is cautious. A hawkish Fed could push yields and the dollar higher, creating pressure on Bitcoin. But because the hike is already heavily anticipated, I would rather trade the reaction than blindly short the announcement.
Tech stocks: This is where I see another major risk. Higher rates usually hurt high-duration growth and technology stocks because future earnings become less attractive when yields rise. A hawkish message could therefore hit Nasdaq and AI-related names harder.
Gold: Higher yields and a stronger dollar can create near-term pressure on gold. But if the Fed signals a pause after this move and yields start falling, gold could quickly regain momentum.
My plan is simple: Iām not chasing the first FOMC candle. I want to see the decision, the Fedās guidance, and the marketās reaction before taking a position. If BTC loses key support after a hawkish surprise, Iāll look for a short setup. If the hike comes with a clear āone-and-doneā message and BTC reclaims resistance, Iāll consider the bullish side instead.
The hike may be predictable.
The reaction wonāt be.
What are you trading after FOMC ā BTC, tech stocks, or gold?
Follow me for more real-time macro and crypto market setups.
#FedRateWatch
$AKE
$AIN
