Warsh gave a hawkish speech at Jackson Hole, now CPI comes in hot — and people are connecting the dots.

If you talk tough about inflation in front of the world's central bankers, you can't just shrug when the data backs you up. Markets are watching for consistency.

This is classic Fed credibility math: words + data = action. If they don't hike next meeting after that setup, the message gets muddy fast.

The bond market doesn't forgive mixed signals.