🎯 TP1: $118.91 (+3.33%) │ TP2: $114.81 (+6.66%)
🛑 SL: $132.84 (-8.00%) │ R/R: 1 : 0.83
⚠️ The stop is wider than TP2 (R/R < 1) — the closer target is hit more often, but adjust your position size according to the stop
FUNDAMENTAL BACKGROUND
AAVE received a local driver with the announcement of Stable Vaults, but the market has already priced in the news, focusing on technicals. The overall crypto market is in a greed phase (index supports altcoins, including the DeFi sector), but overheating increases correction risks. Macro factors are neutral—no significant triggers are expected in the coming days.
TECHNICAL PICTURE
Strong bearish trend (ADX 27.1) with seller dominance. The price of $123.00 is below key EMAs (20/50) at $127.39 and $126.29, respectively, confirming the downward momentum. MACD is in the negative zone (-1.84) with diverging lines. VWAP $126.47 acts as dynamic resistance.
PROBABILITY MODEL
Bearish scenario dominates (41%) with potential to test lower levels. Probability of a bullish reversal—38%, flat—21%. High model confidence (75%) confirms the strength of the current trend.
DIRECTION
🔴 SELL — pressure below key EMAs with strong ADX reinforces the bearish momentum.
