"The Bitcoin bear cycle is over" — CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, yesterday 16:15Z, 198k views. We archive their feed, so let's pop the hood.
The gauge behind the call: their P&L Index (MVRV + NUPL + LTH/STH SOPR) ticking above its own 365-day average. In their own numbers, that tick fired bullish 6 times in 15 months — and died back into bear all 6. One of those bulls ran Oct 2-9 and covered the cycle top itself, 4 days before the slide. Before the current tick (Aug-23, after a bull-bear wobble on Aug 21-22) the gauge sat bear 315 straight days.
Their desk adds: Bull Score 30 → 80, "$83K is the only thing left standing in the way." On our tape that wall is price's own 365d MA at 83.0k — $BTC sits UNDER it at 78.8k. And the 200d reclaim is on close #8: every fake reclaim of this era died in 3-7 closes, the longest fake in history ran ~30. Real ones ran 146-385.
So the call has a near judge: close #30 lands Sep-17. Survive it and "over" earns the word. Lose the 200d earlier — fake #4, same bear, fresh headline.
The far ruler still disagrees: day 324 from the top, cycle lows land 364-406 days in — Oct-5 to Nov-16, still ahead. Near judge rules first: a hold through Sep-17 sends the clock itself to review. Your line to draw. NFA
The gauge behind the call: their P&L Index (MVRV + NUPL + LTH/STH SOPR) ticking above its own 365-day average. In their own numbers, that tick fired bullish 6 times in 15 months — and died back into bear all 6. One of those bulls ran Oct 2-9 and covered the cycle top itself, 4 days before the slide. Before the current tick (Aug-23, after a bull-bear wobble on Aug 21-22) the gauge sat bear 315 straight days.
Their desk adds: Bull Score 30 → 80, "$83K is the only thing left standing in the way." On our tape that wall is price's own 365d MA at 83.0k — $BTC sits UNDER it at 78.8k. And the 200d reclaim is on close #8: every fake reclaim of this era died in 3-7 closes, the longest fake in history ran ~30. Real ones ran 146-385.
So the call has a near judge: close #30 lands Sep-17. Survive it and "over" earns the word. Lose the 200d earlier — fake #4, same bear, fresh headline.
The far ruler still disagrees: day 324 from the top, cycle lows land 364-406 days in — Oct-5 to Nov-16, still ahead. Near judge rules first: a hold through Sep-17 sends the clock itself to review. Your line to draw. NFA
