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Binance Square US Stock Daily｜8/24 US Market Focus: Nvidia and Jackson Hole Test Risk Appetite at the Same Time

US stocks rebounded last Friday, but the start to this week is relatively cautious. The S&P 500 closed at 7,674.37, the Nasdaq 100 at 29,308.86, and the Dow at 53,277.01. Ahead of the bell, futures slipped slightly: NQ is down about 0.34%. In crypto, BTC is at 77,047.28, up 1.43% over 24h; ETH is at 2,451.40, up 3.37% over 24h, and short-term risk appetite is still recovering.

On the Fed front, this week’s focus is Jackson Hole. Reuters reported that the market is waiting to see how incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will explain the policy framework at the 8/27–8/29 meeting—especially given that the Fed has toned down traditional forward guidance and long-end yields remain relatively high. The 30-year US Treasury yield once neared its highest level since 2007, and the 10-year yield is also around 4.74%, which will directly weigh on tech stock valuations.

The stress test for AI trading is Nvidia. The market expects it to release earnings on 8/26. A Reuters syndicated report said investors view it as a proxy for the entire AI capital expenditure cycle: data center demand, chip supply, financing platforms, and future guidance—all of which will influence the pricing of semiconductors and the Nasdaq. The question right now isn’t whether AI has demand, but whether—under a high-rate environment—the market is willing to keep awarding AI stocks high valuation multiples.

On risk events, Reuters reported today that Asian equities are mostly in a wait-and-see mode. Oil prices also pulled back in advance of the US releasing details of sanctions on Iran. Brent is still around $93, while WTI is about $85.6. If oil rises again, it will push inflation and long-end yield pressure back onto the trading desk. Separately, there are tariff frictions between Canada and the US, which is not particularly friendly for sentiment around industrials, autos, and cross-border supply chains.

For crypto, today’s BTC/ETH rebound looks more like a recovery in risk appetite rather than a completely independent行情. If the Nasdaq 100 can hold and Nvidia’s earnings don’t破壞 the AI narrative, ETH’s upside flexibility may continue; but if long-end yields rise again, BTC/ETH are still likely to be treated as high-beta assets and dragged down together when leverage comes off.

My view: In the short term, it’s reasonable to acknowledge that risk appetite is better than last week, but it’s not advisable to chase too aggressively. This week, we’ll start by watching Nvidia, PCE, and Jackson Hole. In terms of positioning, keeping flexibility matters more than betting one-way with heavy exposure.

佐哥 ZOHAN

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