逐梦同行

The biggest takeaway today: Ethereum has hit pause on the Glamsterdam hard fork, which was scheduled to activate on the Hoodi testnet on October 26. $ETH

The problem isn’t a coding error; it’s a blind spot in the rules. EIP-8037 and EIP-8038 aim to optimize Gas pricing, but they could change how Gas is refunded after failed external calls. In an extreme scenario, a malicious caller could use just-not-enough Gas to trick a contract into permanently recording a failed operation—potentially locking users out of retrying a transaction or claiming what they’re owed.

ChainSecurity has already found 13 real-world cases in existing contracts and is working with the project teams on responsible disclosure. The names have not been made public yet. The Ethereum Foundation has also confirmed that replaying transactions on mainnet showed that a small number of contracts could be affected. Most can be fixed by raising the Gas limit, but contracts with hard-coded Gas assumptions won’t be so easy to fix.

The upgrade was originally planned for mainnet in early December; now the timeline is up in the air again. The plan to raise Hoodi’s Gas limit to 200 million has also been delayed. Nodes and validators should follow the update announcements; ordinary mainnet users and ETH holders don’t need to do anything for now.

My take: upgrades need to move faster, but not at the cost of the security of existing applications. Catching this kind of “rule-level side effect” during the testnet phase is far cheaper than dealing with a permanent failure after mainnet launch. Trading short-term uncertainty for fewer problems down the road is worth it.

#以太坊 #Glamsterdam #EIP8037 #安全前置 #MacroInsights

61,800 BTC linked to a $5.7 billion fraud case: confiscation does not mean compensation

Chinese prosecutors have applied to confiscate more than 61,800 units of $BTC , an asset linked to an alleged investment fraud case. The case involved more than 102,000 investors between 2014 and 2017, with over RMB 40.378 billion raised and investor losses of nearly RMB 20 billion. The funds were reportedly used to purchase assets including Bitcoin, real estate, and luxury goods.

Case developments:
• The alleged mastermind, Qian Zhimin, reportedly fled to the UK, where the relevant BTC was later seized by British authorities.
• A Chinese court has accepted prosecutors’ confiscation application and opened a six-month proceeding for victims and other interested parties to participate.
• Previously, the UK High Court ruled that Chinese law should apply to victims’ claims to the BTC in question.

Key reminder:
The start of confiscation proceedings ≠ automatic compensation for victims. Victims’ legal claims and entitlement to recover assets still need to be assessed and determined separately.

The central dispute in this case is no longer just the recovery of assets from fraud, but also the ownership of cross-border crypto assets, mechanisms for their return, and their legal classification. The ownership of 61,800 BTC will be an important case to watch in the judicial handling of cross-border crypto assets.

#BTC #加密资产 #跨境司法 #宏观

Two weeks now, and $BTC is still knocking on the same door: 83,500

Back and forth between 81,500 and 83,500. Buyers have charged at it several times, but still haven't pushed the door open.

My chart notes are just three lines:
• A clear 4-hour close above 83,500 → the door opens; watch 85,000, then 87,000
• A break below 81,500 → look back toward 79,500
• Right now: the lower end has held, but buyers still don't have the upper hand

The good news: the floor is still holding.
The bad news: we still don't have the key.

Until the range breaks, I'm not picking a side. I'll wait for the market to make the first move.

#BTC #比特币预测 #看盘笔记

Whales are accumulating BTC at a record pace—but what do they really “know”?

Santiment data: The number of wallets holding 10–10,000 BTC hit an all-time high of 20,338. They accumulated about 85,000 BTC over three weeks, while spot ETFs saw outflows of about $540 million over the same period.

The bullish case:
• The largest exchange outflows since March
• Binance funding rates turned negative for the first time since June
• Price is still near the average whale cost basis of 81.5K
A familiar short-squeeze playbook.

But don’t get carried away just yet. Four reasons to stay cautious:
1️⃣ Wallets ≠ whales. Custodians splitting addresses can inflate the count; entity-adjusted balances and exchange outflows matter more.
2️⃣ The numbers don’t add up: 85,000 BTC accumulated (about $6.8 billion) vs. only about 6,700 BTC sold by ETFs. Either big buyers are active elsewhere, or some of this is just address relabeling.
3️⃣ A short squeeze isn’t a bottom. It reflects position liquidations, not proof of sustained demand.
4️⃣ History cuts both ways: Whales accumulated before the April rally, but also before the 34% drop after November.

My take: Slightly positive in the medium term, but not enough to call a bottom. Whales don’t necessarily know more than you—they just have longer time horizons and can stomach more pain. More likely, we’ll see a sideways base, or even a sweep below 80K first.

Watch: entity-adjusted balances, ETF flows, whether 81.5K holds, open interest, and funding rates.

Building a base, or falling once more?

For informational purposes only; not investment advice.

#BTC #比特币 #鲸鱼 #加密市场 $NIL #NIL