LaoYao_crypto
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LaoYao_crypto
币圈心学践行者｜知行合一，摆脱FOMO与焦虑，在周期中稳健生存与增值
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LaoYao_crypto
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October 23: Nasdaq plunges, oil prices surge—global capital faces a stress test
Over the past 24 hours, global financial markets have diverged sharply:
U.S. tech stocks saw a steep pullback, Treasury yields fell rapidly, international oil prices surged against the trend, gold and silver came under pressure, and Japanese stocks extended their losses.
Markets are weighing two distinct narratives:
On one hand, capital expenditures by tech giants such as Meta and Tesla, along with returns on AI investments, have sparked renewed valuation concerns;
on the other, escalating tensions in the Middle East have pushed crude oil’s risk premium higher.
Uncertainty over returns on AI investments and energy shocks driven by geopolitics are jointly reshaping the risk pricing of global assets.
U.S. tech stocks saw a steep pullback, Treasury yields fell rapidly, international oil prices surged against the trend, gold and silver came under pressure, and Japanese stocks extended their losses.
Markets are weighing two distinct narratives:
On one hand, capital expenditures by tech giants such as Meta and Tesla, along with returns on AI investments, have sparked renewed valuation concerns;
on the other, escalating tensions in the Middle East have pushed crude oil’s risk premium higher.
Uncertainty over returns on AI investments and energy shocks driven by geopolitics are jointly reshaping the risk pricing of global assets.
LaoYao_crypto
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October 21: Musk’s directives roil the geopolitical chessboard; AI capital and global asset-pricing dynamics may be reshaped
Over the past 24 hours, global financial markets have stabilized and rebounded, but divergence among asset classes remains pronounced.
U.S. stocks are showing a “strong Dow, flat Nasdaq” pattern, with consumer and industrial sectors supporting the broader market, while tech stocks continue to face valuation pressure.
Tensions in the Middle East are weighing on expectations for energy supplies, keeping crude oil prices elevated;
U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated, and the cost of capital continues to be an important factor weighing on risk-asset valuations.
Meanwhile, SpaceX ($SPCX )'s performance has drawn market attention, while reports that Musk and Tesla's ($TSLA ) board are discussing a potential merger have also sparked debate.
U.S. stocks are showing a “strong Dow, flat Nasdaq” pattern, with consumer and industrial sectors supporting the broader market, while tech stocks continue to face valuation pressure.
Tensions in the Middle East are weighing on expectations for energy supplies, keeping crude oil prices elevated;
U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated, and the cost of capital continues to be an important factor weighing on risk-asset valuations.
Meanwhile, SpaceX ($SPCX )'s performance has drawn market attention, while reports that Musk and Tesla's ($TSLA ) board are discussing a potential merger have also sparked debate.
LaoYao_crypto
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October 8: Long-Term Treasury Yields Remain Elevated as Global Assets Enter a Valuation Reset
Over the past 24 hours, the central tension in global markets has become increasingly focused on one variable:
— long-term U.S. Treasury yields.
Yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasuries remain elevated, and rising long-term rates are beginning to ripple from the bond market into stocks, gold, the dollar, and crypto assets.
On the surface, this is a pullback in risk assets from elevated levels;
At a deeper level, capital markets are reassessing a question:
When the cost of capital remains elevated for an extended period,
How much longer can massive AI capital expenditures, corporate valuations, and global risk assets sustain their high prices?
— long-term U.S. Treasury yields.
Yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasuries remain elevated, and rising long-term rates are beginning to ripple from the bond market into stocks, gold, the dollar, and crypto assets.
On the surface, this is a pullback in risk assets from elevated levels;
At a deeper level, capital markets are reassessing a question:
When the cost of capital remains elevated for an extended period,
How much longer can massive AI capital expenditures, corporate valuations, and global risk assets sustain their high prices?
LaoYao_crypto
·
--
October 8: Long-Term Treasury Yields Remain Elevated as Global Assets Enter a Valuation Reset
Over the past 24 hours, the central tension in global markets has become increasingly focused on one variable:
— long-term U.S. Treasury yields.
Yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasuries remain elevated, and rising long-term rates are beginning to ripple from the bond market into stocks, gold, the dollar, and crypto assets.
On the surface, this is a pullback in risk assets from elevated levels;
At a deeper level, capital markets are reassessing a question:
When the cost of capital remains elevated for an extended period,
How much longer can massive AI capital expenditures, corporate valuations, and global risk assets sustain their high prices?
— long-term U.S. Treasury yields.
Yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasuries remain elevated, and rising long-term rates are beginning to ripple from the bond market into stocks, gold, the dollar, and crypto assets.
On the surface, this is a pullback in risk assets from elevated levels;
At a deeper level, capital markets are reassessing a question:
When the cost of capital remains elevated for an extended period,
How much longer can massive AI capital expenditures, corporate valuations, and global risk assets sustain their high prices?
LaoYao_crypto
·
--
20th of the month: rate hike delivered, U.S. Treasury yields edging toward 5%, and a Middle East diplomatic variable emerges—markets begin trading the “after the rate hike” scenario
This week, global financial markets continue to revolve around interest-rate hikes, inflation, and geopolitical risks.
The Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan both raised interest rates in succession.
On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, lifting the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75%–4.00%. This was the first rate hike in more than three years;
At the same time, policy signals indicate that there is still a possibility of further tightening later in the year.
On September 18, the Bank of Japan also raised its policy rate to 1.25%, reaching a 31-year high.
However, after the rate hike, the yen weakened instead. Two members voted against further hikes, and the market began to reassess Japan’s subsequent policy path.
The Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan both raised interest rates in succession.
On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, lifting the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75%–4.00%. This was the first rate hike in more than three years;
At the same time, policy signals indicate that there is still a possibility of further tightening later in the year.
On September 18, the Bank of Japan also raised its policy rate to 1.25%, reaching a 31-year high.
However, after the rate hike, the yen weakened instead. Two members voted against further hikes, and the market began to reassess Japan’s subsequent policy path.
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