I was analyzing my trade signals, and I realized that out of the 10 I sent this week, half worked well (they reached TP1 before SL), but only 2 made it to TP2. Here’s the complete breakdown:
the $INJ was the star - it not only reached TP1, but it kept flying to TP2 as if nothing happened. A 10% profit since the entry, not bad.
the $ETH from July 15 also fulfilled, passed TP1 and reached TP2 without issues. It seems that when ETH decides to move, it really moves.
the $HFT, $BNB and $XRP reached TP1 but ran out of gas for TP2. Like when you stop halfway to the gym - you did the basics but not the extra rep.
now for those that didn’t work... the #ETH from July 13 and the two $BTC I sent plummeted before reaching TP1. The market was a bit crazy those days.
the $DOGE and $XLM? Pfff... those were the ones that hurt to watch. They dropped quickly and didn’t give a chance for anything. But well, that’s how it is sometimes.
The interesting thing is to see that only 20% of the signals reached TP2. It makes me think if it’s worth putting TP2 so far or if I should adjust them to be a bit more realistic.
Another thing I noticed: when a signal works, it really works well (like $INJ ), but when it fails, it fails badly. That’s why SL is my best friend these days.
What do you think? Have you had something similar with your trades? How do you manage your TP2? Do you go full ambitious or prefer safer but smaller profits?
Oh, and if you want me to check any particular pair for next time, let me know. Right now I have my eye on SOL and ADA, but I’m interested to know what you are seeing.
*I would insert some cool TradingView charts here but Binance Square won't let me... imagine them mentally* 📈👀 #TradingStrategyMistakes
1. SIGNAL for $XLM - Bullish 🎯 Entry: 0.44845 - 0.45645 (key support and lower Bollinger band) 🎯 TP1: 0.47149 (UP Bollinger resistance) 🎯 TP2: 0.48079 (24h high) 💥 SL: 0.42937 (daily low and strong support) 📑 Ratio: 1:2.5
2. Technical Analysis - Current price: 0.45768 (-2.57%) - 24h range: 0.42937 - 0.48079 (high volatility) - Bollinger: Price near DN (0.45645), with MB at 0.46397. Likely rebound if it stays above DN - MACD: -0.00128 < DEA 0.00275, but histogram shows possible reversal if it crosses upward - Volume: 1.06B USDT (MA5 > MA10), accumulation at supports - RSI: Neutral (no overbought/sold), room for bullish movement
3. Key Fundamental Factors - Protocol Upgrade 23: Improvements in smart contracts (Soroban) and scalability, boosting DeFi adoption - Record TVL: +$100M in Stellar, with tokenization of traditional assets (e.g. Franklin Templeton funds) - Alliance with PayPal: Integration of PYUSD in Stellar for global payments, increasing utility of XLM - Institutions: Circle (USDC) and MoneyGram using the network, reinforcing credibility
4. Key Levels - Support 1: 0.44845 (psychological) - Support 2: 0.42937 (daily low) - Resistance 1: 0.47149 (UP Bollinger) - Resistance 2: 0.516 (recent high after 109% rally)
5. Scenarios and Recommendations - Bullish: If it rebounds at 0.44845 with volume, target 0.47149-0.516. Confirm with positive MACD and RSI >50 - Bearish: If it breaks 0.42937, possible drop to 0.364 (historical demand zone) - Neutral: Consolidation between 0.44845-0.47149, wait for breakout with volume - 🛑 SL mandatory due to recent volatility (109% increase followed by correction) - 👀 Monitor: News from PayPal and institutional adoption, BTC (correlation 0.82)
*Note: Analysis valid for a time frame of 1-3 days. For long-term investments, consider projections of $1-1.55 in 2025 according to DeFi adoption and technical upgrades.
4. Possible Scenarios - If it exceeds 3,067.61: rally to 3,100.00+ - If it falls below 2,940.41: correction towards 2,900.00 - Lateral movement between 2,940.41-3,067.61 without volume
5. Recommendations - 🛑 Mandatory SL at 2,940.41 - 📊 Take profits at TP1 (70%) and TP2 (30%) - 👀 Confirm MACD above zero to maintain position - ⚠️ Monitor BTC and ETH ETF news
🔥 GEAR 8/10 (High): - $BTC breaks ATH ($123K) but corrects to $119.8K (-2.6%). Key support at $118K. Rally driven by ETF inflows ($1.18B weekly) and expectations of Fed rate cuts. - $ETH at $3.08K (+3% weekly), supported by ETFs ($900M inflows). Resistance at $3.15K. - Mixed altcoins: $XLM (+6%) due to partnership with PayPal, but memecoins like $TRUMP fall (-3.4%).
💼 VIES 6/10 (Neutral-High): - Political risk: Trump pressures Powell (20% chance of removal). Anticipated rate cuts could drive further rally. - Crypto legislation in the U.S. ("Crypto Week"): Genius Act for stablecoins could provide clarity, but uncertainty over trade fees. - Corporates accumulating: MicroStrategy with $28B in unrealized gains. AgriFORCE announces BTC purchases with 50% of its capital.
📌 Trades of the day: 1️⃣ Scalping: #BTC on rebound from $118K (SL: $116.5K). 2️⃣ Swing: #XML on retest of $0.45 (TP: $0.52). 3️⃣ Avoid: Memecoins without fundamentals (e.g., $TRUMP).
🔍 My radar: If #BTC holds $118K, next target $125K. Coins with real adoption ($XLM , $ETH ) > speculation. Key risk: CPI today and Fed tensions.
4. Possible Scenarios - If it stays above 2.9308: momentum to 3.0350-3.2000 - If it breaks 2.9000: correction towards 2.8189 - Lateral movement between 2.9000-3.0350 with low volume
5. Recommendations - 🛑 Strict SL at 2.8189 - 📊 Take staggered profits at TP1 (70%) and TP2 (30%) - 👀 Confirm daily close above MB Bollinger - ⚠️ Watch news on Ripple and crypto regulation
4. Possible Scenarios - If it holds MB: rally to UP and 125,000.00 - If it loses MB: correction to DN or 118,025.19 (minimum 24h) - Lateral movement between 120,449.91-123,528.49 without volume
5. Recommendations - 🛑 SL mandatory at 117,371.32 - 📊 Take profits at TP1 (70%) and TP2 (30%) - 👀 Confirm RSI < 70 to avoid overbought - ⚠️ Monitor volume and macro news
4. Possible Scenarios - If it breaks 12,749: rally to 13,200-14,000 - If it retraces to 12,380: reevaluate with MACD - Lateral movement between 12,380-12,749 without high volume
5. Recommendations - 🛑 SL mandatory at 12,380 - 📊 Take profits at TP1 (70%) and TP2 (30%) - 👀 Monitor BTC and DeFi news - ⚠️ High RSI could indicate temporary overbought
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GEAR (7/10 - High): - Bitcoin ($BTC ) struggles at $108K after a 4% correction, with key support at $105K and $150M in long liquidations. - Ethereum ($ETH ) holds at $2,650 (+3% weekly), with an increase in staking and burning of 12K ETH/day. - Altcoins like $PEPE (+15%) and #WIF (+22%) lead gains, but with RSI overbought in critical zones. - Tension in traditional markets due to inflation data could drive flows into cryptos.
VIES (5.5/10 - Moderate): - Bitcoin ETFs record net inflows of $180M, although Grayscale sees outflows for the 3rd consecutive day. - Chainlink ($LINK) rises +12% due to CCIP adoption, while Ripple ($XRP) falls -5% after SEC lawsuit. - Real-World Assets (RWA) projects like Ondo ($ONDO) attract institutional interest, but with low liquidity in pairs.
Conclusion: #BTC in a decisive zone; a break below $105K could trigger sales. Altcoins with momentum (PEPE, WIF) require profit-taking. Monitor macro data and ETF flows. 🔍
4. Possible Scenarios - If it bounces at MB: rally towards 117,622.49 - 118,200.00 - If it breaks DN: drop towards 116,900.05 (key support) - Lateral movement between 117,112.44 - 117,622.49 without volume
5. Recommendations - 🛑 SL mandatory at 116,900.05 - 📊 Take profits at TP1 (50%) and TP2 (50%) - 👀 Confirm positive MACD to avoid false breakouts - ⚠️ Monitor volume and macroeconomic news
4. Possible Scenarios - If it breaks 0.3079: drop to 0.3006-0.2900 - If it rebounds at MB (0.3304): retest at 0.3479 - Lateral movement in 0.3130-0.3479 with low volume
5. Recommendations - 🛑 Strict SL at 0.3479 (risk of squeeze) - 📊 Sell 70% at TP1 and 30% at TP2 - 👀 Hidden RSI (possible oversold) - ⚠️ Decreasing volume (MA10 > MA5) - confirm breakout
4. Possible Scenarios - If it stays above 164.988 (Bollinger UP): rally to 170.00 - If it falls below 155.50: correction towards 149.546 (MB) - Sideways between 155.50-166.73 without high volume
5. Recommendations - 🛑 SL mandatory at 155.50 - 📊 Take profits at TP1 (70%) and TP2 (30%) - 👀 Confirm sustained volume to avoid false breakouts - ⚠️ Monitor BTC and news from the Solana ecosystem
4. Possible Scenarios - If it breaks 0.7619: acceleration to 0.7800-0.8000 - If it corrects: support at 0.7210 (key SL) - Lateral movement between 0.7210-0.7619 without volume
5. Recommendations - 🛑 SL mandatory due to volatility (+18% today) - 📊 TP1 at historical resistance (0.7619) - 👀 Monitor volume on rises (avoid false breaks) - ⚠️ Likely correction after strong rally
4. Possible Scenarios - If it exceeds 3,040.95: rally to 3,200.00 - If it retraces to 2,893.63: short lateral movement - Break below 2,756.72: drop to 2,538.39
5. Recommendations - 🛑 Mandatory SL at 2,756.72 - 📊 Take staggered profits at TP1/TP2 - 👀 Confirm RSI < 70 to avoid overbought - ⚠️ Monitor volume and macro news
4. Possible Scenarios - If it stays above 117,939.8: target 118,882.8 - 119,921.2 - If it falls below 113,860.4: correction towards 110,432.2 - Lateral movement between 113,860.4 - 118,882.8 without volume
5. Recommendations - 🛑 Mandatory SL at 113,860.4 - 📊 Take profits at TP1 (70%) and TP2 (30%) - 👀 Confirm positive MACD to avoid false crossovers - ⚠️ Monitor volume and macro news