马里奥看Web3

Author: @Web3Mario

Summary: Recently, the market seems to have entered a puzzling stage, with blue-chip cryptocurrencies maintaining high-level fluctuations, and the overall direction being undecided. The altcoin market has also not welcomed the anticipated full bull market, while DAT assets or crypto stocks dominate traditional financial markets. Prior to this, there have been many voices on social media classifying this round of bull market as being driven by traditional funds. I somewhat agree with this judgment, and this part of the funds has several different characteristics compared to past market cycles, such as being greatly influenced by macro factors, having lower risk appetite, being more concentrated, having weaker wealth effect spillover phenomena, and not showing obvious sector rotation phenomena. Therefore, as significant changes in the macro environment occur, re-observing these changes will help us make the right judgment. Overall, I believe that as Powell adjusts the FED's decision-making logic, the performance of the US labor market in the short term determines the market's confidence in a rate cut in September, thus affecting the prices of risk asset markets.

Author: @Web3_Mario

Summary: In recent days, the cryptocurrency market has experienced a significant correction. The market consultation is chaotic, and coupled with continuous large-scale hacker attacks in the cryptocurrency sector, it brings difficulties in understanding the recent market trends in the short term. In response, I have some opinions to share and discuss with everyone. I believe the main reasons for the current pullback in the cryptocurrency market are twofold: firstly, from a micro perspective, the consecutive hacker attacks have triggered concerns among traditional funds, increasing risk aversion; secondly, from a macro perspective, DeepSeek's open-source week has further punctured the AI bubble in the U.S., combined with the actual policy direction of the Trump administration, which has ignited market concerns about U.S. stagflation and initiated the revaluation of Chinese risk assets.

Author: @Web3_Mario
Summary: Recently, I have been looking for new project directions and came across a technology stack that I had not encountered before while doing product design, so I did some research and organized my learning insights to share with everyone. In general, zkTLS is a new technology that combines Zero-Knowledge Proofs (ZKP) and TLS (Transport Layer Security Protocol) and is mainly used in the Web3 field to verify the authenticity of off-chain HTTPS data provided, without trusting a third party, in an on-chain virtual machine environment. Here, authenticity includes three aspects: the data source indeed comes from a certain HTTPS resource, the returned data has not been tampered with, and the timeliness of the data can be guaranteed. Through this cryptographic implementation mechanism, on-chain smart contracts gain the ability to access off-chain Web2 HTTPS resources reliably, breaking data silos.

Author: @Web3_Mario
Abstract: Thank you all for your support over the past year. I apologize that my year-end summary comes a bit late, as I was delayed by some matters. I have also thought for a long time about which angles to share my insights from this past year. In the end, I feel that sharing from the perspective of an ordinary Web3 entrepreneur still striving on the front lines will be more genuine. Overall, looking ahead to 2024 and 2025, I think it is appropriate to summarize in four sentences: from grassroots to universality, from chaos to order, from recession to bubble, and from conservatism to transformation. Next, I will share some representative events that I believe illustrate my thoughts and outlook.

Author: @Web3_Mario
Summary: First, I apologize for the delay in updates last week. After briefly studying AI agents like Clanker, I found it very interesting and spent some time developing some frame tools. After assessing the development and potential cold start costs, rapidly pursuing market hotspots seems to be the norm for most small and medium-sized entrepreneurs in the Web3 industry, and I hope everyone understands and continues to support. Back to the point, this week I hope to discuss a viewpoint I have been pondering lately. Of course, I think this can also explain the recent market volatility. After BTC's price broke the new high, how to continue capturing incremental value is key, and my view is that we need to observe whether BTC can take over from AI, becoming the core driving force for economic growth in the new political and economic cycle under Trump's administration. This game has already unfolded alongside MicroStrategy's wealth effect, but the entire process will inevitably face numerous challenges.

Author: @Web3_Mario

Summary: This week I discovered an interesting project called Clanker, which allows a Farcaster user to automatically create a custom MEME coin on Base through text interaction with this account, while simultaneously creating an initial trading pool on Uniswap V3. Therefore, I spent some time carefully looking at the technical details of Clanker and have some insights to share with everyone.

What is Clanker?
First, let me briefly introduce what Clanker is. Clanker is an autonomous agent based on the Base blockchain, with its core function being to help users deploy ERC-20 standard tokens. Users only need to tag @clanker on the social platform Farcaster and provide relevant token information (such as name, code, and image), and Clanker will complete the token creation, liquidity pool setup, and liquidity locking. The entire process does not require users to possess complex technical knowledge.

Author: @Web3_Mario

Summary: Last week we discussed the potential benefits that Lido gains from changes in the regulatory environment and hoped to help everyone seize this Buy the Rumor trading opportunity. This week, a very interesting topic is the heat around MicroStrategy. Many predecessors have commented on this company's operational model. After digesting and researching it deeply, I have some personal views to share with you. I believe the reason for the rise in MicroStrategy's stock price lies in the 'Davis Double Play'. Through the business design of financing for purchasing BTC, it binds the appreciation of BTC to company profits and gains financial leverage through innovative designs that combine traditional financial market financing channels, enabling the company to achieve profit growth beyond that brought by the appreciation of its BTC holdings. Meanwhile, as its holdings increase, the company gains a certain pricing power over BTC, further reinforcing this profit growth expectation. However, its risk lies in this: when the BTC market experiences oscillation or reversal risks, profit growth tied to BTC will stagnate, and under the pressure of the company's operating expenses and debt, MicroStrategy's financing ability will be significantly diminished, which will affect profit growth expectations. Unless new support can further elevate BTC prices, the positive premium of MSTR relative to BTC holdings will quickly converge. This process is known as the 'Davis Double Kill.'

Author: @Web3Mario

Abstract: We know there is a saying, "Buy the rumor, sell the news". Before the October election, the article (DOGE's New Value Cycle: Political Traffic Potential and Musk's "Department of Government Efficiency" (D.O.G.E) Political Career) published by the author has received good responses and expected results, and the author has also harvested a relatively rich return on investment. I would like to thank everyone for their encouragement and support. I personally think that there will be a lot of similar trading opportunities in this window period before Trump officially takes over, so the author decided to start a series of articles, (Buy the rumor series), to explore and analyze the hot spots that are currently being hyped in the market and refine some trading opportunities.

Author: @Web3Mario

Abstract: The US election has come to an end, and Trump has swept the United States with a crushing momentum and made a strong comeback. In my previous article, I have fully discussed the political and economic plans of both parties and the impact on the future cryptocurrency market, and there are many articles describing related views, so I will not repeat them. During this period, in addition to paying attention to the dynamics of the election, I also felt and observed a relatively subtle phenomenon. I found some experience very interesting, so I summarized it and shared it with you. In general, in this US election, the "media war" between the two parties will greatly weaken the credibility of the mainstream media and X social media, while Web3 social media platforms may usher in new development opportunities. On the one hand, Democratic followers need to cultivate new and self-controllable propaganda channels, which brings convenience to related competing products in terms of financing channels; on the other hand, under Musk's rule, X will become increasingly dictatorial, and this "Dark MAGA" will inevitably favor conservatism on many cultural issues, such as abortion, immigration, LGBTQ multiculturalism, etc. The dictator's preference will greatly affect the logic of the recommendation algorithm in X, so the trend of user loss on the opposite side of it is inevitable, and X's self-defeating martial arts will be conducive to related competing products reshaping more competitive product differentiation, thereby reducing promotion difficulty.

Author: @Web3Mario
Summary: In the coming week, there is no doubt that global attention will focus on the U.S. election. Therefore, I took some time to carefully outline the upcoming time nodes and core points of interest and to look forward to the subsequent impact. Overall, starting from Tuesday, November 5, the results of the election will be announced in succession over the following week. During this time, the progress of results announcements will continue to affect asset prices.
Due to the different election policies across states, the results of the U.S. election will be announced over about a week.
While chatting with friends, I found that everyone is not very clear about the time rhythm for the coming week. People think that results will come out on the evening of November 5 (early morning of the 6th Beijing time). In fact, due to different policies in each state regarding ballot processing, counting rules, and mail-in ballots, there is variability in the announcement of results. So first, I want to talk about the timeline of the U.S. presidential election. Starting from the overall election rhythm, the rhythm for the upcoming period is as follows:

Author: @Web3Mario
Summary: This weekend, social networks have been quite lively, with a new round of debates about ETH starting. I believe the causes are twofold. Firstly, the interview between Vitalik and ETHPanda sparked widespread discussion in the Chinese community. Secondly, compared to SOL, ETH's continued decline against BTC has also triggered widespread dissatisfaction. Regarding this issue, I have some opinions to share with everyone. In general, I believe the long-term trend of ETH is sound because there are actually no direct competitors in the market. In the narrative of Ethereum, the key aspect of the positioning of 'decentralized execution environment' is 'decentralization' rather than 'execution environment,' and this fundamental situation has not changed. The core reasons leading to the current bottleneck in ETH's development are twofold. Firstly, the ReStaking track has caused a vampire attack on the mainstream technological development path of Layer2, siphoning off a large amount of resources from the ETH ecosystem. Secondly, the core mechanism of ReStaking does not create incremental demand for ETH, directly resulting in the application side being unable to obtain sufficient development resources and user attention, leading to stagnation in promotion and user education. Secondly, key opinion leaders in the Ethereum ecosystem are becoming aristocratic, forming an interest class, which causes class mobility to solidify, and the developer ecosystem lacks sufficient incentives, making innovation appear weak.

Author: @Web3Mario

Abstract: Recently, the MEME ecosystem is very hot, so the author continues to pay attention to and study related knowledge. Last week, many MEMEs have achieved several times or even dozens of times of growth, but most of the stories I saw and heard were still large losses. Therefore, before the narration, I still hope that everyone will remain rational when participating, and must do a good job of risk control, strictly implement trading strategies, and must not be overwhelmed by survivor bias. Back to the topic, when studying the MEME track, the author started with DOGE, the leader of such projects, and found that DOGE is experiencing some interesting things recently. I have some experience and hope to share it with you. In general, affected by the increased possibility of Musk's political career, DOGE is absorbing new traffic potential-political traffic. Therefore, the results of the upcoming election may bring DOGE a new value cycle.

Author: @Web3Mario
Abstract: It's been a long time since we last met. I've taken a break to relax my body and mind. I'll continue to learn and share. The Chinese stock market has been the focus of recent market trends. The crypto world has not met expectations before the rate cut and seems a bit quiet. However, there is one event that caught my attention. It's a classic MEME on Solana, Slerf, which is a sloth-like image. It is currently undergoing a CTO (Community Take Over) competition initiated by a Slerf community opinion leader in the Chinese area. As a result, the price of Slerf has also doubled rapidly in 5 days. Since I have not had enough understanding and thinking about MEME before, I think this event is a good opportunity to learn. After studying for a while, I have some experience and hope to share and discuss with you.

Author: @Web3Mario (https://x.com/web3_mario)
Abstract: There were a lot of big things last week. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 BP relatively aggressively, and the Bank of Japan stayed on hold. This basically indicates that at least there will be no excessively negative information in the next few weeks. There are already relevant analysis articles There are quite a few, so I won’t go into details here. In this process, as long as everyone pays attention to two logics, it will be relatively easy to grasp the risks. The first is whether the job market will recover as scheduled, and the second is the risk of rekindling inflation. In addition, there is a news that attracted the author's attention, that is, Nirvana Finance, a stable project on Solana, announced the restart of V2. This project was suspended after being hacked for more than 3.5 million US dollars in July 2022. I remember that there was It is known that the hackers who attacked the project were convicted, and the recent restart means that the relevant judicial agencies should have completed the transfer of the stolen funds, which means that the entire incident should be defined as the first smart contract-related incident in the United States. The case of being convicted of an attack is landmark for the maritime law system. From now on, the handling process of similar cases should be significantly improved. Therefore, I spent some time over the weekend to sort out the whole story of this case in detail and share it with you.

Author: @Web3Mario (https://x.com/web3_mario)
Abstract: First of all, I wish you all a happy Mid-Autumn Festival. During the holiday, I found an interesting topic and studied World Liberty Financial, which has been very popular in the past two days. This DeFi project, in which members of the Trump family are deeply involved, made more detailed promises in the Twitter space on September 17, including the distribution of WLFI tokens and the vision of the project. Trump spent a long time talking about his optimistic attitude towards the crypto field in the meeting. So for such a project that does not seem to be so "Web3 style", how should we grasp its value? I have done some research on this point and have some experience to share with you. In general, I think the core value of World Liberty Financial lies in finding new fundraising channels to alleviate Trump's disadvantage in raising funds for the 2024 campaign. Then the essence of investing in WLFI tokens is a bet on Trump's election and a political donation.

Author: @Web3Mario (https://x.com/web3_mario)
Summary: I read an exclusive interview between Bankless and Multicoin "Why is ETH Down so bad?" last Sunday. I thought it was very exciting and profound. I recommend everyone to read it. Ryan fully demonstrated the difference between Web3 pragmatism and fundamentalism in the interview, but I have discussed this in detail in my previous article. In addition, the views in it also aroused a lot of excitement and thinking in me. Indeed, in the recent period, Ethereum has begun to suffer a certain degree of FUD. The direct reason I think is because the passage of the ETH ETF failed to trigger and A similar trend occurred when the BTC ETF was passed, which caused some people to rethink the vision and development direction of Ethereum. I also have some thoughts on these issues, which I hope to share with you. In general, I agree with Ethereum as a social experiment, hoping to create a decentralized, deauthorized and even trustless "cyber immigration country" vision, as well as its L2 expansion direction based on Rollup. The real problems Ethereum faces are two. One is that the competition between Restaking for the L2 expansion plan dilutes the resources for ecological development and reduces the value capture ability of ETH. The second is that the key opinion leaders of the Ethereum system are becoming aristocratic. Because they cherish their feathers, they lack enthusiasm for ecological construction.

Author: Web3Mario (https://x.com/web3_mario)
Abstract: On August 23, 2024, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell officially announced at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting that "Now is the time for policy adjustment. The direction of progress is clear, and the timing and pace of interest rate cuts will depend on upcoming data, changing prospects, and the balance of risks." This also means that the Fed's tightening cycle, which has lasted for nearly three years, has ushered in a turning point. If the macro data is not unexpected, the first interest rate cut will be ushered in at the interest rate meeting on September 19. However, entering the early stage of the interest rate cut cycle does not mean that the surge is coming immediately. There are still some risks that deserve everyone's vigilance. Therefore, the author summarizes some of the most important issues that need to be paid attention to here, hoping to help everyone avoid some risks. In general, in the early stage of interest rate cuts, we also need to pay attention to six core issues, including the risk of recession in the United States, the rhythm of interest rate cuts, the Fed's QT (quantitative tightening) plan, the risk of renewed inflation, the efficiency of global central bank linkage, and the political risks in the United States.

Author: @Web3Mario (https://x.com/web3_mario)
Abstract: This week, the market officially entered the cool-off period before the Jackson Hole meeting. Everyone is waiting for Powell to make an official interpretation of the latest employment and inflation data and give clear guidance on future monetary policy, which will undoubtedly become a key reference for the September interest rate decision. However, there was a very interesting piece of information last Friday that did not attract much attention in the crypto world. That is, Democratic presidential candidate Harris officially announced his first clear economic policy framework, the "Opportunity Economy" framework. Because I was sorting out the analysis article on Usual Money last Friday, I did not notice it. I carefully studied the relevant details over the weekend and found some interesting insights. I hope to share them with you. In general, Harris's "Opportunity Economy" framework is an extreme left economic plan, which specifically refers to reducing the cost of living of the American people in four aspects, including housing, medical care, food and daily necessities, and childcare, through the power of government policies. If this plan is implemented, it is likely to push the cryptocurrency market back to the 2021 trend, but it will be accompanied by the resurgence of inflation in the United States.

Author: @Web3Mario (https://x.com/web3_mario)
Summary: This week, I continued to study the relevant documents of Telegram API. I have to complain a little bit. I am not very impressed with the style of Telegram documents. They are quite "Russian hardcore". I chatted with my friends in my spare time and talked about a very interesting stablecoin project, Usual Money, which seems to be popular recently. Since I have always been interested in the stablecoin project, I immediately spent some time to do some research. I have some experience to share with you, hoping that you can look at or participate in this project more cautiously. In general, I think the core innovation of Usual Money lies in the design of tokenomics. By using the profits of interest-bearing collateral as the value support of its governance token $Usual, and by encapsulating a 4-year bond product USD0++, the liquidity of USD0 is reduced, ensuring the relative stability of the above profit flow. However, for retail investors with smaller funds, USD0++ is equivalent to a liquidity honeypot, and they need to be cautious when participating.

Author: @Web3Mario (https://x.com/web3_mario)
Abstract: This week, I was learning some APIs related to Telegram Bot. The framework of the TON contract has been basically completed. I was a little happy, but the plunge of the entire crypto market on Monday really cast a shadow on my mood. I had certain expectations for this result. But I didn't expect it to come so quickly and so violently. Therefore, I sorted out some of my own views and shared them with you. I hope you can stabilize your mentality and don't let panic affect your investment decisions. In general, the core reason for the sharp pullback of risky assets led by US technology stocks in this round is that the aggressive interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan has made many JPY carry trades invalid or face greater risks, especially in three aspects: exchange rate fluctuations, interest rate reversals and liquidity risks. In the face of these risks, "Mrs. Watanabe" is closing positions to repay yen debts and reduce risks. However, considering the relationship in the US-Japan alliance, the real factor that dominates the long-term trend of the market in the future is still the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. Therefore, before the US interest rate cut, everyone should remain patient. Of course, it is still necessary to adjust the leverage appropriately.