八方阁 - 一粒沙

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#MU #美光 #美股 #ResearchBeforeInvesting About US stocks: remain bearish continuously, and expect to buy the dip in August

#xau tested 398 many times, it should be going down. After it goes down, the rebound will be even higher #XAU

#NAS100 still looks bearish; if there’s an opportunity for a pullback to the high, you can short it to 26. After 26, I expect a big pullback.

#NAS100 There are currently two scripts: either head north all the way, or keep falling in a loop.

Let's test whether the resistance level of gold at 39 can stop the decline #XAU

#NAS100 In the 4H uptrend, a contracting triangle has formed; wait and see........

I compiled some industry benchmarking stock information related to AI for your reference. DYOR
#AI #ResearchBeforeInvesting #research #股票
“The alliance model where compute is capital” (OpenAI / Anthropic)
Logic: Although the AI-model unicorns in the map (such as Anthropic and OpenAI) are ostensibly independent, they are backed by Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN). These tech giants bind the unicorns’ valuations to their cloud ecosystems by injecting capital into the unicorns (often by providing compute capacity quotas on Azure/AWS). When investing in these large models, the most reliable secondary-market route is still to buy Microsoft and Amazon.
The “ARR (annual recurring revenue) threshold” for the application layer
Logic: For companies such as Midjourney and Duolingo (DUOL), as well as Adobe (ADBE) listed on the US stock market, the capital market’s scrutiny is extremely strict—“does anyone keep paying for AI features on an ongoing basis?” Midjourney achieved hundreds of millions in revenue via pure consumer subscriptions without taking a single dollar of VC money; it is a miracle of a free-cash-flow valuation. Adobe, meanwhile, relies on its strong B2B monopoly position to forcibly raise the average revenue per user.
Mainland China/HK “overseas mapping” and “application localization” division of labor
Hardware maps to A-shares: As long as orders from US-listed Nvidia (NVDA) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) do not decline, mainland China’s Jizhi Xuchuang, Xin Yisheng, and Foxconn Industrial Internet are the AI performance stocks with the highest certainty across the entire market.
Software looks to HK/A-shares for deployment: Due to geopolitical and language barriers, overseas models can’t enter the domestic market directly. Therefore, Meitu (HK-listed, multimodal tools), Futu? Tonghuashun (A-share financial AI), and Kingsoft Office (WPS AI) have a natural ecosystem moat in the local market. They are likely to replicate the commercialization paths of overseas Adobe and Palantir.

I know that everyone is especially fond of financial products in the AI industry right now. Half a year ago, I personally compiled a simple brief and want to share my industry mapping materials. If you like it, feel free to save it for yourself to take a look—#AI #ResearchBeforeInvesting #invest #ResearchFirst . I hope it will be helpful to everyone. I don’t know how well it will perform once published. If the details are not clear, leave me a comment and I’ll send you the web disk address for everyone.

Thoughts about μ 💡
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