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老k
112 Posts

老k

生命的厚重总是要时间去感受,所以还是活得长点会更好。
51 Following
119 Followers
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Posts
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I feel Lao Ma is starting to drift. The plate is too big, and it’s easy to get your nuts pulled. A person’s energy is limited. You’ve got to work on new energy, build the computing center, develop power plants, launch rockets, Starlink communications, robots—then also work on computing chips now. Don’t you have a few wives and kids who need time and care? Every link burns money. There’s a trend toward becoming like Mr. Jia. I feel that today’s U.S. isn’t what it used to be. Sooner or later, he’s going to be in trouble.
I feel Lao Ma is starting to drift. The plate is too big, and it’s easy to get your nuts pulled. A person’s energy is limited. You’ve got to work on new energy, build the computing center, develop power plants, launch rockets, Starlink communications, robots—then also work on computing chips now. Don’t you have a few wives and kids who need time and care?
Every link burns money. There’s a trend toward becoming like Mr. Jia. I feel that today’s U.S. isn’t what it used to be. Sooner or later, he’s going to be in trouble.
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Article
One of the biggest pillar industries for the future of commercial spaceflight2026 is a pivotal turning point year for the formation of a value framework for commercial spaceflight. Key events include: · Strategic positioning: In March 2026, aerospace was included for the first time in the “emerging pillar industries”; during the “15th Five-Year Plan period,” the concept of “a strong space nation” was first proposed, and the state established a dedicated regulatory bureau for commercial spaceflight. · Establishment of a standards framework: In April 2026, the (Commercial Spaceflight Standards Framework, Version 1.0) was officially released. · SpaceX IPO milestone: In June 2026, SpaceX listed on Nasdaq at a valuation of $177 billion, signaling mainstream capital markets’ recognition of the value of commercial spaceflight. · Breakthrough in reusable technology: In July 2026, the Long March 11Y completed a first-stage recovery, addressing the core bottleneck for low-cost network deployment.

One of the biggest pillar industries for the future of commercial spaceflight

2026 is a pivotal turning point year for the formation of a value framework for commercial spaceflight. Key events include:
· Strategic positioning: In March 2026, aerospace was included for the first time in the “emerging pillar industries”; during the “15th Five-Year Plan period,” the concept of “a strong space nation” was first proposed, and the state established a dedicated regulatory bureau for commercial spaceflight.
· Establishment of a standards framework: In April 2026, the (Commercial Spaceflight Standards Framework, Version 1.0) was officially released.
· SpaceX IPO milestone: In June 2026, SpaceX listed on Nasdaq at a valuation of $177 billion, signaling mainstream capital markets’ recognition of the value of commercial spaceflight.
· Breakthrough in reusable technology: In July 2026, the Long March 11Y completed a first-stage recovery, addressing the core bottleneck for low-cost network deployment.
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Don’t touch the stocks of small countries—repeat it three times in your mind. Especially countries like this, where things like kimchi and flax end up dropping—struggling is useless!!! Why is that? Because in small countries, the more something is done well, the more dangerous it becomes. A small country isn’t the chess player; it’s the best prey. There are too many hunters in great-power games, and the food isn’t enough to be divided. Great powers can just make up a rule and you’ll end up with rivers of blood. Now international trade isn’t like it used to be, where fairness and justice mattered—only what you can protect is yours. Look at the UN now—does it still have any use? That’s all. It’s all human nature, after all……
Don’t touch the stocks of small countries—repeat it three times in your mind. Especially countries like this, where things like kimchi and flax end up dropping—struggling is useless!!!
Why is that? Because in small countries, the more something is done well, the more dangerous it becomes. A small country isn’t the chess player; it’s the best prey. There are too many hunters in great-power games, and the food isn’t enough to be divided. Great powers can just make up a rule and you’ll end up with rivers of blood. Now international trade isn’t like it used to be, where fairness and justice mattered—only what you can protect is yours. Look at the UN now—does it still have any use? That’s all. It’s all human nature, after all……
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Article
For the next ten years, basically all you need to bet on is AI and Bitcoin to meet the real needs for value appreciation and preservation.AI is a productivity revolution, while Bitcoin is an offset for changes in the production relationships. We can understand this on three levels: 1. Core contradiction: productivity gains versus diluted purchasing power The hidden tension between “AI improving efficiency” and “wealth shrinking.” AI drastically lowers the cost of creating wealth, but creating AI itself is a massive capital expenditure of its own. This will very likely lead the world into a sustained, large-scale cycle of capital spending. Loose monetary policy is often the “standard setting” for such cycles, and that, in turn, dilutes the purchasing power of traditional money. So, the fact that you help create more wealth doesn’t necessarily mean the money in your hands is worth more.

For the next ten years, basically all you need to bet on is AI and Bitcoin to meet the real needs for value appreciation and preservation.

AI is a productivity revolution, while Bitcoin is an offset for changes in the production relationships. We can understand this on three levels:
1. Core contradiction: productivity gains versus diluted purchasing power
The hidden tension between “AI improving efficiency” and “wealth shrinking.”
AI drastically lowers the cost of creating wealth, but creating AI itself is a massive capital expenditure of its own. This will very likely lead the world into a sustained, large-scale cycle of capital spending. Loose monetary policy is often the “standard setting” for such cycles, and that, in turn, dilutes the purchasing power of traditional money. So, the fact that you help create more wealth doesn’t necessarily mean the money in your hands is worth more.
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Gold can be followed up in the long run. The bubble has already been removed. This hard currency hasn’t gone out of date yet—the bottom has already formed. You can buy slowly at the bottom and then, in the next year or two, you’ll know how important the choices you make now are.
Gold can be followed up in the long run. The bubble has already been removed. This hard currency hasn’t gone out of date yet—the bottom has already formed. You can buy slowly at the bottom and then, in the next year or two, you’ll know how important the choices you make now are.
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The market has temporarily entered a relatively balanced state, and the range-bound trading is really exhausting. Take your time to enjoy the挂机人生—who knows how long the peaceful period will last.
The market has temporarily entered a relatively balanced state, and the range-bound trading is really exhausting. Take your time to enjoy the挂机人生—who knows how long the peaceful period will last.
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#BinanceTurns9 9th anniversary, Binance with you After weathering storms, everything is a smooth path
#BinanceTurns9 9th anniversary, Binance with you
After weathering storms, everything is a smooth path
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Article
The domestic closure of the crypto market will be accelerated; pay attention to risk avoidance1. Background and source Time: July 13, 2026 (Note: the original text shows the year as 2026; it may be a future projection or a typographical error, but can be understood according to the text). Source: Reported by (Jiancha Daily). Written jointly by the people’s procuratorate of Yuhu District, Xiangtan City, in Hunan Province, and researchers from the Faculty of Law, Xiangtan University. Topic: Exploring the difficulties in criminal-law regulation of money-laundering crimes using virtual currencies and proposing a systemic response. 2. The “threefold dilemmas” faced in current judicial practice The article points out that there are three main challenges in handling such cases: Hard to classify conduct: Article 191 of the Criminal Law limits money laundering to seven categories of predicate crimes, which means many cases can only be prosecuted under the relatively lighter offense of “concealment or disguising criminal proceeds,” making precise crackdowns difficult.

The domestic closure of the crypto market will be accelerated; pay attention to risk avoidance

1. Background and source
Time: July 13, 2026 (Note: the original text shows the year as 2026; it may be a future projection or a typographical error, but can be understood according to the text).
Source: Reported by (Jiancha Daily). Written jointly by the people’s procuratorate of Yuhu District, Xiangtan City, in Hunan Province, and researchers from the Faculty of Law, Xiangtan University.
Topic: Exploring the difficulties in criminal-law regulation of money-laundering crimes using virtual currencies and proposing a systemic response.
2. The “threefold dilemmas” faced in current judicial practice
The article points out that there are three main challenges in handling such cases:
Hard to classify conduct: Article 191 of the Criminal Law limits money laundering to seven categories of predicate crimes, which means many cases can only be prosecuted under the relatively lighter offense of “concealment or disguising criminal proceeds,” making precise crackdowns difficult.
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Article
Let’s talk today about Bitcoin’s trust issueRather than saying there has been a complete shift from “confidence and liquidity problems” to “trust issues,” it’s more accurate to say that Bitcoin is in an even more severe phase: liquidity depletion is amplifying structural doubts, while its core “trust narrative” is facing unprecedented wavering. 📉 Current situation: a “stress test” from confidence to trust · Confidence collapse stems from liquidity depletion: the 2026 market is a typical liquidity crisis. Bitcoin has been cut in half from its historical high at the end of 2025, and “apparent demand” has been negative for more than 200 consecutive days. The benchmark Strategy that once stood by “only buy, never sell” has broken its promise and started selling, dealing a further blow to market confidence.

Let’s talk today about Bitcoin’s trust issue

Rather than saying there has been a complete shift from “confidence and liquidity problems” to “trust issues,” it’s more accurate to say that Bitcoin is in an even more severe phase: liquidity depletion is amplifying structural doubts, while its core “trust narrative” is facing unprecedented wavering.
📉 Current situation: a “stress test” from confidence to trust
· Confidence collapse stems from liquidity depletion: the 2026 market is a typical liquidity crisis. Bitcoin has been cut in half from its historical high at the end of 2025, and “apparent demand” has been negative for more than 200 consecutive days. The benchmark Strategy that once stood by “only buy, never sell” has broken its promise and started selling, dealing a further blow to market confidence.
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The current plaza is really a chaos of demons and monsters—more exciting than even Douyin. In the future, still watch less. Remind yourself every day: if you really want to lose less money, watch less.
The current plaza is really a chaos of demons and monsters—more exciting than even Douyin.
In the future, still watch less. Remind yourself every day: if you really want to lose less money, watch less.
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Bitcoin’s bottom is basically confirmed, and it’s time to enter.
Bitcoin’s bottom is basically confirmed, and it’s time to enter.
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Article
It’s already almost July—there’s a new set of regulations starting on the 1st that we need to understand thoroughly and in depth......July 1, 2026: Complete roundup of the new national regulations implemented nationwide + in-depth analysis of their impact on daily life. Effective nationwide on July 1, 2026, the country will roll out seven major categories of unified new regulations: national laws, mandatory national standards, special rules from the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, administrative regulations, consumer oversight, pharmaceutical and medical controls, and cross-border investment. These cover all scenarios including employment and retirement, elderly care, getting medical treatment, buying cars and commuting, everyday consumption, safeguarding rights and handling administrative matters, overseas investing, and assistance for families in difficult circumstances. Below, we break down the core points item by item by section, explain the real impact on ordinary people, and provide recommended ways to respond. Section 1: Social security and employment (affecting re-employment after retirement, working people, and the elderly—widest audience)

It’s already almost July—there’s a new set of regulations starting on the 1st that we need to understand thoroughly and in depth......

July 1, 2026: Complete roundup of the new national regulations implemented nationwide + in-depth analysis of their impact on daily life. Effective nationwide on July 1, 2026, the country will roll out seven major categories of unified new regulations: national laws, mandatory national standards, special rules from the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, administrative regulations, consumer oversight, pharmaceutical and medical controls, and cross-border investment. These cover all scenarios including employment and retirement, elderly care, getting medical treatment, buying cars and commuting, everyday consumption, safeguarding rights and handling administrative matters, overseas investing, and assistance for families in difficult circumstances. Below, we break down the core points item by item by section, explain the real impact on ordinary people, and provide recommended ways to respond. Section 1: Social security and employment (affecting re-employment after retirement, working people, and the elderly—widest audience)
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Buy $1000 worth of Nvidia stock; Binance trading cost is around $1, significantly lower than Tiger and Futu. On June 1st, news came out indicating that based on publicly disclosed data, assuming Nvidia's stock price is around $216.15, the trading cost for buying $1000 worth of Nvidia stock on Binance is about $1 (0.1% spread); the minimum fees for Tiger Securities and Futu in Hong Kong are both around $2; Interactive Brokers (IBKR) has a fixed fee rate of about $1, with a tiered fee model estimating costs around $0.35. This calculation only considers the buying side trading fees and does not include currency conversion, selling regulatory fees, or financing interest, so actual costs may vary based on trading methods and market conditions. Today, Binance announced that platform users will be able to trade over 7000 U.S. stocks and ETFs, with an investment threshold of just $5, supporting the purchase of stocks using stablecoins and BNB. The company also announced an upcoming plan allowing customers to convert their held stocks into crypto-like digital assets. This is part of Binance's grand vision to become a 'multi-asset financial super app.'
Buy $1000 worth of Nvidia stock; Binance trading cost is around $1, significantly lower than Tiger and Futu.
On June 1st, news came out indicating that based on publicly disclosed data, assuming Nvidia's stock price is around $216.15, the trading cost for buying $1000 worth of Nvidia stock on Binance is about $1 (0.1% spread); the minimum fees for Tiger Securities and Futu in Hong Kong are both around $2; Interactive Brokers (IBKR) has a fixed fee rate of about $1, with a tiered fee model estimating costs around $0.35. This calculation only considers the buying side trading fees and does not include currency conversion, selling regulatory fees, or financing interest, so actual costs may vary based on trading methods and market conditions.
Today, Binance announced that platform users will be able to trade over 7000 U.S. stocks and ETFs, with an investment threshold of just $5, supporting the purchase of stocks using stablecoins and BNB. The company also announced an upcoming plan allowing customers to convert their held stocks into crypto-like digital assets. This is part of Binance's grand vision to become a 'multi-asset financial super app.'
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Binance US stock trading requires updating the app and changing the language to 'Traditional Chinese' On June 1, according to community feedback, Chinese users looking to get in on US stock trades on the Binance platform need to upgrade to the latest version (3.15.0) and switch the system language to 'Traditional Chinese'. Tests show that while sticking with 'Simplified Chinese' won't allow participation, switching to other languages lets you dive into US spot trading without a hitch. We're finally cashing in on the benefits that came from regulatory changes, so no more stress over US stocks!
Binance US stock trading requires updating the app and changing the language to 'Traditional Chinese'
On June 1, according to community feedback, Chinese users looking to get in on US stock trades on the Binance platform need to upgrade to the latest version (3.15.0) and switch the system language to 'Traditional Chinese'. Tests show that while sticking with 'Simplified Chinese' won't allow participation, switching to other languages lets you dive into US spot trading without a hitch.
We're finally cashing in on the benefits that came from regulatory changes, so no more stress over US stocks!
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Why are compliance institutions massively increasing their ZEC positions while abandoning the "fully anonymous" XMR? · Why has the adoption rate of shielded pools doubled in 2025 with no new geopolitical conflicts? --- 3. The Overlooked Third Layer of Demand: AI Monitoring Pressure and Compliance Squeeze This is precisely why most people underestimate the demand for privacy. Let’s break down the structure of this third layer of demand. 3.1 Asymmetric Arms Race of On-Chain AI Monitoring With the AI integration of blockchain analysis tools like Chainalysis, the reality that nearly every transaction on transparent public chains (like Bitcoin and Ethereum) can be fully traced and linked is rapidly approaching. The negative marginal effects produced are not limited to crime—ordinary users are discovering that their net worth, spending habits, and trading behaviors are permanently recorded without their knowledge, leading to physical security risks (cases of "wrench attacks" and other physical coercion have doubled to 215 by 2026) that are shifting from abstract rights to essential personal safety needs. According to Grayscale's research report: as AI monitoring capabilities strengthen, financial privacy will transition from a marginal demand to a core necessity. If ZEC can capture 5% of the crypto "currency" market, its valuation could increase 18-fold. 3.2 Regulatory Compliance and the Technological Schism of Selective Transparency The privacy sector is undergoing structural differentiation in 2026: fully anonymous coins (Monero) are degrading into niche essential assets; meanwhile, the "auditable privacy" route represented by ZEC is expanding from a purely crypto narrative into traditional finance and data compliance scenarios through zero-knowledge proof (ZKP) technology. The global regulated financial system's demand for "selective disclosure" capabilities (to protect trade secrets while meeting anti-money laundering requirements) effectively constitutes a brand new market that far exceeds simple anonymous payments.
Why are compliance institutions massively increasing their ZEC positions while abandoning the "fully anonymous" XMR?
· Why has the adoption rate of shielded pools doubled in 2025 with no new geopolitical conflicts?

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3. The Overlooked Third Layer of Demand: AI Monitoring Pressure and Compliance Squeeze

This is precisely why most people underestimate the demand for privacy. Let’s break down the structure of this third layer of demand.

3.1 Asymmetric Arms Race of On-Chain AI Monitoring

With the AI integration of blockchain analysis tools like Chainalysis, the reality that nearly every transaction on transparent public chains (like Bitcoin and Ethereum) can be fully traced and linked is rapidly approaching. The negative marginal effects produced are not limited to crime—ordinary users are discovering that their net worth, spending habits, and trading behaviors are permanently recorded without their knowledge, leading to physical security risks (cases of "wrench attacks" and other physical coercion have doubled to 215 by 2026) that are shifting from abstract rights to essential personal safety needs.

According to Grayscale's research report: as AI monitoring capabilities strengthen, financial privacy will transition from a marginal demand to a core necessity. If ZEC can capture 5% of the crypto "currency" market, its valuation could increase 18-fold.

3.2 Regulatory Compliance and the Technological Schism of Selective Transparency

The privacy sector is undergoing structural differentiation in 2026: fully anonymous coins (Monero) are degrading into niche essential assets; meanwhile, the "auditable privacy" route represented by ZEC is expanding from a purely crypto narrative into traditional finance and data compliance scenarios through zero-knowledge proof (ZKP) technology. The global regulated financial system's demand for "selective disclosure" capabilities (to protect trade secrets while meeting anti-money laundering requirements) effectively constitutes a brand new market that far exceeds simple anonymous payments.
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Article
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一个使用零知识(“ZK”)证明技术的区块链,在不影响数据保护和所有权的情况下提供实用性_Midnight NetworkMidnight Network 并非简单地在区块链上加了个“隐私保护罩”,而是通过 “理性隐私” 的核心哲学,利用零知识证明技术构建了一个数据可选的保密世界。它让你既能像使用传统区块链一样验证交易,又能通过密码学手段确保敏感的原始数据永远掌握在自己手中,仅在必要时进行选择性披露。 为了帮你更清晰地理解它的运作方式,我从几个核心维度做了分析: 🔍 核心技术:不止于隐藏,更在于选择 Midnight 的技术核心在于 “双态账本” 和 “零知识密码学” 的结合,解决了隐私与合规的矛盾。 · 双态账本架构:网络同时维护公开和私有两种账本。公开账本记录必要的交易元数据以确保可审计性;私密账本则存储加密的敏感数据。智能合约可以在这两种状态间无缝切换,实现复杂的隐私逻辑。 · ZK证明技术:采用先进的 zk-SNARKs 技术,允许在不透露具体输入信息的情况下,证明某个陈述(如“我的收入超过5万美元”)为真。网络基于 Kachina 研究框架,使用 Pluto-Eris 曲线生成证明,旨在兼顾高性能与可组合性。 🪙 经济模型:NIGHT 与 DUST 的“双引擎”分离 这是一个极具创新的设计,它将网络所有权与网络使用权彻底分离,解决了传统公链“越贵越堵”的痛点。 维度 NIGHT 代币 DUST 资源 角色定义 网络所有权和治理代币 网络使用权消耗品 核心功能 1. 质押生息:持有即自动生成 DUST 。 2. 链上治理:参与网络升级和资金决策。 3. 奖励区块生产者和生态贡献。 1. 支付Gas费:唯一用于支付交易费用的资源。 2. 隐私保护:在交易过程中屏蔽元数据。 关键特性 可交易、总量固定:总供应量 240亿 枚,具通缩属性。 不可转让、随时间衰减(如7天内有效),无法投机。 🚀 应用与生态:瞄准真实世界痛点 Midnight 的设计直指企业和个人在合规与隐私之间的两难困境,已经出现了一些很有潜力的落地场景: · 医疗数据协作:正在与医疗结构合作,探索在不泄露患者原始病历的前提下,跨机构生成统计证明,用于临床试验和研究。 · 合规身份验证:用户可通过 ZK 证明自己已通过 KYC 或已成年,无需提交身份证照片等敏感文件给第三方,降低数据泄露风险。 · 企业数据交换:让互不信任的企业之间可以基于可信的证明(而非原始数据)进行协作,打破数据孤岛。 💻 开发生态:降低 ZK 应用门槛 为了让开发者能轻松构建隐私应用,Midnight 推出了专为 ZK 设计的编程语言 Compact。它基于广泛使用的 TypeScript,极大降低了密码学的学习曲线,使数百万 Web 开发者能快速上手,加速生态繁荣。 Midnight 的独特之处在于它对 “隐私” 的重新定义:不是绝对匿名,而是可编程的控制权。通过双态账本和双代币模型,它在透明的区块链世界中划出了一块既保护数据主权、又保留可审计性的“理性空间”。

一个使用零知识(“ZK”)证明技术的区块链,在不影响数据保护和所有权的情况下提供实用性_Midnight Network

Midnight Network 并非简单地在区块链上加了个“隐私保护罩”,而是通过 “理性隐私” 的核心哲学,利用零知识证明技术构建了一个数据可选的保密世界。它让你既能像使用传统区块链一样验证交易,又能通过密码学手段确保敏感的原始数据永远掌握在自己手中,仅在必要时进行选择性披露。
为了帮你更清晰地理解它的运作方式,我从几个核心维度做了分析:
🔍 核心技术:不止于隐藏,更在于选择
Midnight 的技术核心在于 “双态账本” 和 “零知识密码学” 的结合,解决了隐私与合规的矛盾。
· 双态账本架构:网络同时维护公开和私有两种账本。公开账本记录必要的交易元数据以确保可审计性;私密账本则存储加密的敏感数据。智能合约可以在这两种状态间无缝切换,实现复杂的隐私逻辑。
· ZK证明技术:采用先进的 zk-SNARKs 技术,允许在不透露具体输入信息的情况下,证明某个陈述(如“我的收入超过5万美元”)为真。网络基于 Kachina 研究框架,使用 Pluto-Eris 曲线生成证明,旨在兼顾高性能与可组合性。
🪙 经济模型:NIGHT 与 DUST 的“双引擎”分离
这是一个极具创新的设计,它将网络所有权与网络使用权彻底分离,解决了传统公链“越贵越堵”的痛点。
维度 NIGHT 代币 DUST 资源
角色定义 网络所有权和治理代币 网络使用权消耗品
核心功能 1. 质押生息:持有即自动生成 DUST 。 2. 链上治理:参与网络升级和资金决策。 3. 奖励区块生产者和生态贡献。 1. 支付Gas费:唯一用于支付交易费用的资源。 2. 隐私保护:在交易过程中屏蔽元数据。
关键特性 可交易、总量固定:总供应量 240亿 枚,具通缩属性。 不可转让、随时间衰减(如7天内有效),无法投机。
🚀 应用与生态:瞄准真实世界痛点
Midnight 的设计直指企业和个人在合规与隐私之间的两难困境,已经出现了一些很有潜力的落地场景:
· 医疗数据协作:正在与医疗结构合作,探索在不泄露患者原始病历的前提下,跨机构生成统计证明,用于临床试验和研究。
· 合规身份验证:用户可通过 ZK 证明自己已通过 KYC 或已成年,无需提交身份证照片等敏感文件给第三方,降低数据泄露风险。
· 企业数据交换:让互不信任的企业之间可以基于可信的证明(而非原始数据)进行协作,打破数据孤岛。
💻 开发生态:降低 ZK 应用门槛
为了让开发者能轻松构建隐私应用,Midnight 推出了专为 ZK 设计的编程语言 Compact。它基于广泛使用的 TypeScript,极大降低了密码学的学习曲线,使数百万 Web 开发者能快速上手,加速生态繁荣。
Midnight 的独特之处在于它对 “隐私” 的重新定义:不是绝对匿名,而是可编程的控制权。通过双态账本和双代币模型,它在透明的区块链世界中划出了一块既保护数据主权、又保留可审计性的“理性空间”。
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Article
How to Value Cryptocurrencies!!!In the field of cryptocurrency, pursuing a valuation result that is as 'precise' as a mathematical formula is difficult; a more realistic goal is to construct a 'comprehensive' valuation framework. Due to the wide variety of crypto assets (public chains, DeFi, platform tokens, NFTs, etc.), the factors driving their value are different, so it is necessary to tailor the approach based on the asset type. Currently, mainstream valuation approaches can be divided into intrinsic value methods and relative value methods, but more importantly, it is essential to understand the core models corresponding to specific asset classes. 🔍 Overview of Mainstream Valuation Models In order to help us quickly understand, I have organized representative valuation models for different crypto assets:

How to Value Cryptocurrencies!!!

In the field of cryptocurrency, pursuing a valuation result that is as 'precise' as a mathematical formula is difficult; a more realistic goal is to construct a 'comprehensive' valuation framework. Due to the wide variety of crypto assets (public chains, DeFi, platform tokens, NFTs, etc.), the factors driving their value are different, so it is necessary to tailor the approach based on the asset type.
Currently, mainstream valuation approaches can be divided into intrinsic value methods and relative value methods, but more importantly, it is essential to understand the core models corresponding to specific asset classes.
🔍 Overview of Mainstream Valuation Models
In order to help us quickly understand, I have organized representative valuation models for different crypto assets:
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The war continues and everyone is paying attention to crude oil, let's talk about it today.Phase one trading "expectations" (risk premium), phase two trading "reality" (physical supply disruptions). We have indeed entered phase two, and the situation is shifting from "expensive" to "extreme." Will it reach 200 dollars? Based on the current information analysis: this has shifted from "black swan" to "tail risk," with probabilities significantly rising, but it requires several very stringent conditions to be met simultaneously. Here is a detailed breakdown considering the latest situation: 1. How severe is the infrastructure damage? The current damage is not only to production facilities but also to the paralysis of logistics arteries:

The war continues and everyone is paying attention to crude oil, let's talk about it today.

Phase one trading "expectations" (risk premium), phase two trading "reality" (physical supply disruptions). We have indeed entered phase two, and the situation is shifting from "expensive" to "extreme."
Will it reach 200 dollars? Based on the current information analysis: this has shifted from "black swan" to "tail risk," with probabilities significantly rising, but it requires several very stringent conditions to be met simultaneously.
Here is a detailed breakdown considering the latest situation:
1. How severe is the infrastructure damage?
The current damage is not only to production facilities but also to the paralysis of logistics arteries:
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Article
What was the purpose of Trump’s three major actions in 2026?Trump did three major things: he airstriked Venezuela to capture Maduro, pressured Denmark for Greenland, and conducted military strikes against Iran in conjunction with Israel. These three actions seem unrelated, but in fact, they are three crucial global shipping lifelines. When viewed separately, it appears that the U.S. is "setting fires" in three different regions; however, when placed on a world map and connected by shipping routes, it points directly to the U.S.'s global "channel control" strategy. This is not just a military operation, but a deep layout targeting global logistics, energy, and trade rules.

What was the purpose of Trump’s three major actions in 2026?

Trump did three major things: he airstriked Venezuela to capture Maduro, pressured Denmark for Greenland, and conducted military strikes against Iran in conjunction with Israel. These three actions seem unrelated, but in fact, they are three crucial global shipping lifelines. When viewed separately, it appears that the U.S. is "setting fires" in three different regions; however, when placed on a world map and connected by shipping routes, it points directly to the U.S.'s global "channel control" strategy. This is not just a military operation, but a deep layout targeting global logistics, energy, and trade rules.
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Article
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关于USD1和WLFI的一点深思特朗普家族发币这件事并非单一维度的行为,它既是利用政治红利进行的商业收割,也是一场试图借助政治权力重塑金融格局的商业扩张。但这背后最核心的驱动力,或许并非拯救美元,而是源于他们口中强烈的 “报复” 动机和巨大的利益冲突。 我们可以从“收割”和“救美元”这两个角度,看看这场争论的两面: 角度一:为什么说这是一场“政治与商业结合性收割”? 这个观点的论据非常扎实,主要体现在以下几个方面: · 家族巨额获利,散户损失惨重:特朗普家族通过其加密平台WLFI,可获得项目净收入的75%,并控制60% 的股权,至今已获利数亿美元。更直接的是,在就职前夕推出的“TRUMP”迷因币,导致约80万个投资者钱包总计亏损20亿美元,被认为是“史诗级收割”。 · 利用内幕信息,涉嫌利益输送:有分析发现,在“TRUMP”币和第一夫人“MELANIA”币正式发布前,均有“巨鲸”账户提前埋伏买入,随后在价格高点抛售套现,精准得令人咋舌。此外,波场创始人孙宇晨向WLFI投资3000万美元后,摇身一变成为项目顾问,这笔投资被广泛质疑为变相的“政治献金”。 · “裁判下场踢球”的致命争议:这是最核心的问题。特朗普作为总统,其政策能深刻影响整个加密行业。例如,他签署了《稳定币法案》为USD1等铺路。同时,一个与阿布扎比相关的实体以5亿美元购入WLFI 49%股份,阿联酋正是特朗普需要打交道的国家。参议员Elizabeth Warren直言这是“令人震惊的腐败工具”。 角度二:这是想摆脱美元困境的“垂死挣扎”吗? 特朗普家族自己的说法非常宏大,但现实情况要复杂得多: · 官方的“宏大叙事”:特朗普的儿子们宣称,推出USD1是为了给美元提供“升级版”,通过私营部门的创新来维护美元霸权,确保其在数字货币时代的主导地位。他们甚至将自己的行为与1792年美国创立美元类比。 · 无法忽视的“报复”动机:然而,他们也毫不掩饰真正的动力是“报复”。他们声称,在2021年国会山事件后,家族因政治立场被传统银行体系“封杀”,账户被关闭,因此必须创建自己的金融工具。小唐纳德·特朗普直言传统银行是“庞氏骗局”。 · 可能适得其反的效果:讽刺的是,这种“特朗普特色”的金融创新反而可能削弱美元。当总统利用权力为其家族币开道时,这只会加速其他国家(如欧洲推进数字欧元)寻求美元替代方案,以规避美国这种将金融体系“私有化”和“政治化”带来的系统性风险。 所以,这既是商业收割,更是政治影响力变现。它巧妙地将“公权”与“私利”深度捆绑,利用总统身份带来的政策红利,为家族的商业帝国开辟新战场。 归根结底,这更像是一场以“金融创新”为名,实为寻求“金融脱困”和“商业复仇”的行动。特朗普家族想摆脱的,并非美元的困境,而是他们自己被传统金融体系拒之门外的困境,只不过这次,他们动用了整个国家的权力作为筹码。 说到底,这是一场打着国家旗号、带有强烈复仇色彩的家族生意。你觉得这种将总统职位和家族生意深度绑定的模式,最终会给美国金融体系带来“升级”,还是打开“潘多拉的盒子”? {spot}(USD1USDT) {future}(WLFIUSDT)

关于USD1和WLFI的一点深思

特朗普家族发币这件事并非单一维度的行为,它既是利用政治红利进行的商业收割,也是一场试图借助政治权力重塑金融格局的商业扩张。但这背后最核心的驱动力,或许并非拯救美元,而是源于他们口中强烈的 “报复” 动机和巨大的利益冲突。
我们可以从“收割”和“救美元”这两个角度,看看这场争论的两面:
角度一:为什么说这是一场“政治与商业结合性收割”?
这个观点的论据非常扎实,主要体现在以下几个方面:
· 家族巨额获利,散户损失惨重:特朗普家族通过其加密平台WLFI,可获得项目净收入的75%,并控制60% 的股权,至今已获利数亿美元。更直接的是,在就职前夕推出的“TRUMP”迷因币,导致约80万个投资者钱包总计亏损20亿美元,被认为是“史诗级收割”。
· 利用内幕信息,涉嫌利益输送:有分析发现,在“TRUMP”币和第一夫人“MELANIA”币正式发布前,均有“巨鲸”账户提前埋伏买入,随后在价格高点抛售套现,精准得令人咋舌。此外,波场创始人孙宇晨向WLFI投资3000万美元后,摇身一变成为项目顾问,这笔投资被广泛质疑为变相的“政治献金”。
· “裁判下场踢球”的致命争议:这是最核心的问题。特朗普作为总统,其政策能深刻影响整个加密行业。例如,他签署了《稳定币法案》为USD1等铺路。同时,一个与阿布扎比相关的实体以5亿美元购入WLFI 49%股份,阿联酋正是特朗普需要打交道的国家。参议员Elizabeth Warren直言这是“令人震惊的腐败工具”。
角度二:这是想摆脱美元困境的“垂死挣扎”吗?
特朗普家族自己的说法非常宏大,但现实情况要复杂得多:
· 官方的“宏大叙事”:特朗普的儿子们宣称,推出USD1是为了给美元提供“升级版”,通过私营部门的创新来维护美元霸权,确保其在数字货币时代的主导地位。他们甚至将自己的行为与1792年美国创立美元类比。
· 无法忽视的“报复”动机:然而,他们也毫不掩饰真正的动力是“报复”。他们声称,在2021年国会山事件后,家族因政治立场被传统银行体系“封杀”,账户被关闭,因此必须创建自己的金融工具。小唐纳德·特朗普直言传统银行是“庞氏骗局”。
· 可能适得其反的效果:讽刺的是,这种“特朗普特色”的金融创新反而可能削弱美元。当总统利用权力为其家族币开道时,这只会加速其他国家(如欧洲推进数字欧元)寻求美元替代方案,以规避美国这种将金融体系“私有化”和“政治化”带来的系统性风险。
所以,这既是商业收割,更是政治影响力变现。它巧妙地将“公权”与“私利”深度捆绑,利用总统身份带来的政策红利,为家族的商业帝国开辟新战场。
归根结底,这更像是一场以“金融创新”为名,实为寻求“金融脱困”和“商业复仇”的行动。特朗普家族想摆脱的,并非美元的困境,而是他们自己被传统金融体系拒之门外的困境,只不过这次,他们动用了整个国家的权力作为筹码。
说到底,这是一场打着国家旗号、带有强烈复仇色彩的家族生意。你觉得这种将总统职位和家族生意深度绑定的模式,最终会给美国金融体系带来“升级”,还是打开“潘多拉的盒子”?
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