川三

Referring to yesterday's analysis, $ETH is currently in the divergence repair stage, a non-trending market;
So

If there is an opportunity, a light position can be tried in the 3,850–3,800 range;
Consider reducing positions or selling high when it rebounds to around 4,200–4,300;

I will be back in a few months

From a macro perspective, the current situation belongs to the "stage of excessive bearish sentiment", and panic selling is not advisable; rather, it’s a time to observe opportunities for buying at low prices.

First, let's look at the potential impact of tariffs on the market / cryptocurrency assets.
1. Market risk aversion increases
A sudden and significant increase in tariffs represents a major macro shock, which may trigger panic capital flowing into safe-haven assets (such as gold, US dollars, government bonds). Cryptocurrency assets are generally perceived as high-risk assets and may come under pressure in this situation.
2. Capital flows prioritize "US dollars / US dollar assets"
If US dollar assets are considered to have "stronger safe-haven properties", capital will flee from higher-risk assets (like cryptocurrencies). This is negative for ETH / BTC in the short term.

For $ETH , considering the structural state on the ETH K-line, I personally tend to believe:
• The current ETH structure is in a bottom-building stage, with signs of accumulation as expected.
• Macroeconomic news such as "100% tariffs" may serve as a short-term downward accelerator, pulling prices down to test support.
• However, if the price can hold key support ( ~3450–3750 range) during the downward probe, along with divergence in trading volume and momentum indicators, there may be a possibility of a rebound to repair the structure after the news shock.

Currently in the rising trend of "small divergence repair → synchronous upward preparation stage".
$BTC stable and slightly strong, $ETH additional rise imminent.

Maintain a bullish mindset, pay attention to BTC 121,000 and ETH 4300 during pullbacks.

Let's take a closer look at BTC's situation (ETH situation is similar, showing signs of capital inflow)

BTC market sentiment and main force intention
✨Market Sentiment
• The decline in the past 48 hours belongs to a low-volume pullback, accompanied by RSI maintaining above 40 in the 4H cycle;
• During the decline, trading volume shrank, and OBV did not create a new low, indicating that capital has not flowed out;
• Market sentiment is cautious, but there are no signs of panic or concentrated stop-losses;
• Structurally, the high and low points remain elevated, still in the small divergence repair stage of the rising trend.
✨Main Force Intention
• The main funds are conducting liquidity cleaning + re-accumulation;
• The current control range is located at 120,000–121,000 (PDL support zone), which has sufficient support;
• The target range is concentrated at 124,000–126,000:
• 124,000 is the short-term structural high / PDH upper edge
• 126,000 is the Premium supply zone / liquidity inducement position
• The main intention is: to collect liquidity through fluctuations and then push up to test the high supply area.
✨Current Bias
Bullish dominance, pullbacks can be bought.
Structure is not damaged, pullbacks are seen as re-accumulation signals, expected to continue the trend.

$BNB Phase Target and Main Intent Analysis

Comprehensive Fibonacci Extension, Market Value Estimation, and SMC Structure Three Major Models:
• Fibonacci Extension: $1350–$1450 —— The endpoint of the main bullish wave stage, main force high position selling area.
• Market Value Estimation: $1350–$1700 —— Ecological valuation upper limit, corresponding to extreme emotional market.
• SMC Structure: $1320–$1380 —— Liquidity absorption zone, with risks of false breakout and distribution.

✨Conclusion:
The current main force of BNB's phase target is likely located in the $1350–$1450 range.

If the market is pushed above $1450, but there is a divergence in volume and price, and the daily RSI continues to stagnate above 70 (slowly not returning to 60–65),

it is highly likely to mean this is the last round of emotional peak, where the main force uses strong illusions for liquidity harvesting.

In other words: Although the trend is strong, the market has entered the final stage of the main bullish wave, beware of high-position divergence under 'false strength'.

$BNB Currently strong, but has entered a high divergence zone, not suitable for blindly chasing the rise. Key observation 953–960 whether to hold, if it holds, continue to look above 1000; if it breaks, prevent accelerated replenishment to 926–934.

Upper target positions:
First target: 1020–1040
Second target: 1070–1080
Ultimate target: 1120–1130

The past few days have been in a range-bound fluctuation. Let's take a different perspective on the current market.
$BTC and $ETH 's SMT (Smart Money Technique) comparative analysis:

Current structure comparison
• BTC:
• The daily line fluctuates between the 120k previous high and 111k–112k support levels.
• The recent wave of rebound tested 115k, with insufficient upward momentum, and the high position may induce long positions.
• ETH:
• The daily line fluctuates between the 4600 previous high and 4300–4200 support levels.
• Every surge has been suppressed, currently stuck at equilibrium, showing a weaker fluctuation.

✨ SMT similarities and differences
1. High point structure
• BTC: Surging to 115k, approaching the previous high range (strong performance).
• ETH: Rebounded to 4450–4500 but was suppressed, far from the previous high (weak performance).
👀 BTC is stronger than ETH
2. Low point defense
• BTC: 111k was pulled up after multiple liquidity sweeps, support is relatively solid.
• ETH: 4300 has been tested multiple times, 4200 is also being passively defended, showing weakness.
👀 ETH is more likely to break down
3. Capital intention (assisted by OBV-MACD)
• BTC: Volume divergence, short-term surge but does not continue.
• ETH: Volume is weak, rebound mainly relying on BTC.
ETH relies on BTC; BTC is the leading force in the rally.

✨ SMT deduction
• If BTC makes a new high (greater than 115.5k–116k), but ETH fails to break through 4450–4500, it indicates a typical SMT divergence, suggesting a significant risk of a top in the rebound.
• If BTC falls below 111k while ETH simultaneously falls below 4300 → SMT is consistently bearish, and the depth of the decline will be greater.
• If BTC consolidates between 113k–115k, while ETH weakens and falls below 4300, capital is more likely to abandon ETH and shift towards the strength of BTC.

✨ Key observation points:
• BTC: Will it break through 115.5k–116k?
• ETH: Can it follow through the breakout at 4450?
• SMT bias: If BTC surges without volume and ETH cannot follow, there is a high probability of a reversal, with ETH declining first.

In terms of operations, if everyone has TradingView, they can pay attention to the two indicators in my chart, combined with key positions, which have certain reference significance.