交易员刺客

I've been flying all over the place these past few days!
Today I can finally get a few hours of proper rest!
Have a great weekend, everyone!

SK Hynix’s earnings report was a veritable nuclear bomb that blew expectations out of the water. Just look at the numbers: revenue of 104.62 trillion and operating profit of 83.33 trillion, both record highs. But net profit came in at 39.78 trillion—below analysts’ expectations. The strange thing is, the stock didn’t tank; it surged more than 5% instead.

That’s because the capital markets trade on the future. The report’s biggest ace in the hole: more than half of its capacity for 2027–2028 is already locked in by long-term contracts, and tight memory supply is expected to persist through 2030.

That means Hynix’s money-printing machine is effectively locked in ahead of time, insulated from macroeconomic swings. But the ripple effects of this aren’t good news for us.

Tech giants are pouring money into expanding capacity to secure computing power. Add Meta’s recent $100 billion financing and the $6.3 billion SPV set up by Blackstone and other institutions to buy equipment, and you can see global liquidity being sucked into AI infrastructure at a furious pace. That’s also the key reason BTC is stuck around the $80,000 mark, desperately defending institutions’ $80,200 cost basis: there’s an extreme shortage of cash in the market. As long as hardware costs stay high, inflation won’t come down, and expectations of Fed rate cuts will remain firmly pinned down.

But take a step back, and this is precisely Bitcoin’s strongest endorsement. The giants are borrowing at high interest rates to maintain their tech dominance, spending down the credibility of the entire fiat system. As debt keeps piling up, capital will inevitably flow back into the absolutely scarce Bitcoin.

As for trading, absolutely don’t chase semiconductor-themed coins—their surges can easily lure you into a bull trap. Keep your eyes on Bitcoin’s key levels: $78,700–$79,300 below is a liquidation danger zone for bulls; if it breaks below on heavy volume, follow the move and go short. If it holds sideways above $80,000 on light volume, try a small position. Macro danger zones are everywhere. Cash is king; staying in the game matters most. $SKHY $SKHYNIX #SKHynix

Robinhood’s earnings report just exposed the ugly truth about U.S. retail investors. The stock plunged 10% in premarket trading—and it was fully deserved.

On the surface, revenue hit a quarterly record of $1.424 billion, up 12%. But look at the profits and the picture changes: net income fell 14% year over year, and earnings per share came in below expectations. The biggest blow was crypto trading revenue, which plunged 55% year over year to just $120 million.

What does that tell us? Retail traders have basically checked out, and there’s no fresh money flowing into the market. Bitcoin is struggling to hold the $80,000 mark, trading activity is painfully subdued, and these figures tell the story better than anything else.

So how did revenue hold up? Event contracts—prediction markets. Revenue from that segment reached $173 million, 6.4 times what it was a year ago. When one door closes, another opens: retail traders have stopped trading crypto and flocked to betting on elections and sports. But the margins on this new business clearly can’t match crypto, dragging down overall profits.

This matters a lot for our markets. Robinhood is a barometer of retail sentiment worldwide. The plunge in crypto revenue confirms that the market is extremely short on cash, with no new wave of retail traders coming in. Without fresh money, dreaming of Bitcoin taking off on its own is just wishful thinking.

The Fed decision is also looming tonight, so macro risks are extremely high. My strategy is clear: keep a close eye on the $80,000 level. If Bitcoin breaks below it on strong volume, follow the move and go short; if it holds on low volume, cautiously test the waters with a small position. Don’t get carried away. If you’re sitting on profits, take them off the table—cash is king. Let’s get through this cash-starved stretch and wait for retail sentiment to recover.$HOOD

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