thesolidoke

I tested 42 trading rules on 14 metals markets. Not one made money.

Copper, aluminium, steel, iron ore, platinum, palladium, plus the miners' ETFs. Trend rules, breakout rules, long-only rules. All with real costs.

Result: no rule was positive after costs. Copper lost even before costs.

The plot twist: a few "winners" looked amazing at first. Then I checked the data. Those markets had stale prices, the same open/high/low/close on 62-93% of days. The bot was "trading" a price that wasn't moving.

And the kicker: simply buying and holding the miners beat every single rule (XME +198%, COPX +149% over 2021-26).

Lessons:
1. Check your data before you trust your results.
2. Sometimes the boring option wins.

Have you ever had a backtest that was too good to be true?

Not financial advice.

#TradingBots #algoTrading #tradingfees #bitcoin $BTC

Gemini said my new strategy would make +1.15% to +1.35% a day. On real data it made +0.11%: statistically nothing.

I send every backtest to two AIs (Gemini and GPT) for a second opinion. They're useful: they catch mistakes, suggest tests and argue with each other.

But:
• That "+1.35% a day" strategy was Gemini's own design.
• It once called my 2026 test dates "impossible" because its knowledge stopped earlier.
• Both sometimes state numbers with total confidence that aren't in my data.

My rule now: AI suggests, the data decides.

Sold an "AI trading bot"? Ask: who checked the AI?

Do you let AI touch your trading, or not?

Not financial advice.

#AI #TradingBots #algoTrading #BitcoinFiveWeeklyLosses $BTC

Would I let an AI see my bank account? It already sees my trading bots.

For a month an AI assistant has run my bot research: backtests, GPU runs, post-mortems. Here's where I drew the lines:
✅ It reads results, logs and backtests
✅ It drafts, I approve
❌ It can't move money
❌ Nothing goes live without my yes

Read-only access is the easy part. The hard part: AI is sometimes confidently wrong. Every claim gets checked against the raw numbers.

So would I try Claude's Personal Finance beta with read-only bank access? Same rules: read, never move.

The valuation? I test bots, not IPOs. Ask me in a year.

#AnthropicIPO #AnthropicRejectsIPODelayValuationinQuestion #AI #TradingBots $BTC