The $3T AI super-narrative: will it end up taking the same old path as SpaceX?
Anthropic’s expected IPO has been all over the news lately. The most震撼 line of all: the potential AI market size (TAM) exceeds $3 trillion. What does that even mean? The United States’ annual GDP is only about $3.2 trillion. In other words, the capital markets are pricing AI—almost like recreating an entire U.S. economy. The story is grand enough and sexy enough—but when you peel away the hype and look at the real data, the gap is painfully striking. The expected outlook given by Anthropic itself: By 2028, the target revenue will be only $190–200 billion. Let’s do the math simply: A so-called super-track worth $3 trillion—yet in the next three years, the revenue that actually materializes is even less than 1% of the entire market.
Last night, BTC briefly surged to $81,266❗️ Bullish sentiment had just started to heat up, but the market quickly pulled back to around $78,000❗️ It then rebounded to the $79,000 area and entered a consolidation range. The short-term move once again proves that the market will never easily give chase buyers a chance.
Many people are wondering whether breaking $80,000 is a “false breakout.” From the order flow, it looks more like a shakeout process within a high-level consolidation. In the early session, bearish sentiment warmed up—some funds believed support was about to break—yet the price then surged rapidly. After the chasing funds entered, a pullback followed to “cleanse” the market. At present, BTC is still in a back-and-forth battle between bulls and bears, and a one-way mindset is easy to be repeatedly slapped by the market.
ETH has been relatively weaker: after spiking to $2,532, it fell back to around $2,475. Around the $2,550 area, sell pressure is clearly evident. For the downside, the key support to watch is near $2,355. In the short term, it’s not advisable to blindly chase or sell off; waiting for direction to be confirmed is more important.
SNDK, a popular asset, has seen extremely sharp volatility recently. It has surged significantly within the short cycle and then dropped quickly as well, with the $1,500 level becoming the battleground for bulls and bears. After the hotspot momentum fades, the risk of chasing higher prices increases noticeably. If key support is broken, further downside adjustment still needs to be watched closely.
Overall, the market is still in a range-bound “washout” structure. During trading, don’t let short-term sentiment control you—focus on key support and resistance levels, manage your position size, and wait until the trend becomes truly clear.
#BTC突破8W大关 #BTC # Bitcoin is capped around $81,000, near the 50-week moving average