不太懂交易
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不太懂交易
深研、重仓、长持｜推特@susea1992｜交易手续费优惠邀请码：SU5678
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After the buyback news comes out, it’s still falling
This time we’re not short on storage, right? 😅
This time we’re not short on storage, right? 😅
不太懂交易
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$SKHYNIX
Although there’s been a share buyback news, there’s still no desire to place orders.
If we go long now, it’s nothing more than betting that there will be funds moving in pre-market to push prices higher.
Even if it actually opens that way, it’s still scary—after all, on Friday the Non-Farm Payrolls were a positive surprise, yet it still dropped sharply.
Micron and SanDisk’s buybacks didn’t make much difference either; if it’s going to fall, it will fall.
No matter how you look at it, each move has its logic. So, it’s better to just stand by and wait for a better opportunity.
Although there’s been a share buyback news, there’s still no desire to place orders.
If we go long now, it’s nothing more than betting that there will be funds moving in pre-market to push prices higher.
Even if it actually opens that way, it’s still scary—after all, on Friday the Non-Farm Payrolls were a positive surprise, yet it still dropped sharply.
Micron and SanDisk’s buybacks didn’t make much difference either; if it’s going to fall, it will fall.
No matter how you look at it, each move has its logic. So, it’s better to just stand by and wait for a better opportunity.
$TUT
This coin is like the lab.
You know it will go to zero, but you don’t know how high it will go before it goes to zero.
Even opening a 1/10 short could still get blown out.
The risk-reward ratio is way too crazy—there’s absolutely no reason to do it.
This coin is like the lab.
You know it will go to zero, but you don’t know how high it will go before it goes to zero.
Even opening a 1/10 short could still get blown out.
The risk-reward ratio is way too crazy—there’s absolutely no reason to do it.
$SKHYNIX
Although there’s been a share buyback news, there’s still no desire to place orders.
If we go long now, it’s nothing more than betting that there will be funds moving in pre-market to push prices higher.
Even if it actually opens that way, it’s still scary—after all, on Friday the Non-Farm Payrolls were a positive surprise, yet it still dropped sharply.
Micron and SanDisk’s buybacks didn’t make much difference either; if it’s going to fall, it will fall.
No matter how you look at it, each move has its logic. So, it’s better to just stand by and wait for a better opportunity.
Although there’s been a share buyback news, there’s still no desire to place orders.
If we go long now, it’s nothing more than betting that there will be funds moving in pre-market to push prices higher.
Even if it actually opens that way, it’s still scary—after all, on Friday the Non-Farm Payrolls were a positive surprise, yet it still dropped sharply.
Micron and SanDisk’s buybacks didn’t make much difference either; if it’s going to fall, it will fall.
No matter how you look at it, each move has its logic. So, it’s better to just stand by and wait for a better opportunity.
$SPCX
The timing to launch the big short-squeezing rocket is when the news breaks and the shorts get liquidated
The timing to go long and store for holds is when the news breaks and the longs get liquidated
Trading should be done in a simple mode
Don't make it too complicated😁
The timing to launch the big short-squeezing rocket is when the news breaks and the shorts get liquidated
The timing to go long and store for holds is when the news breaks and the longs get liquidated
Trading should be done in a simple mode
Don't make it too complicated😁
Our rebate business is finally getting better too.
Even our customers are expanding to overseas friends 😅
Even our customers are expanding to overseas friends 😅
Many people mocked me
spaceX just looked at 70 the day before yesterday
Yesterday I pulled it up to 115 and then ran
What I want to say is:
Go long at 59—hype targets 100
Stop-loss at the original price, now it's 55
I watched MSTR at 50, but after it dipped to 80 and then rebounded, I never did it again
Go long at 1850 for Hailix—I'll stay as long as I don't get liquidated; liquidation price is 1200
After that, stopped out at 1695—now Hailix is 1000
Opinions are opinions; the market is the market
Don’t use your own views to challenge the market—that’s just stupid behavior
Respect the market forever and you’ll survive; whether it slaps your face or not doesn’t matter to me at all 😄
spaceX just looked at 70 the day before yesterday
Yesterday I pulled it up to 115 and then ran
What I want to say is:
Go long at 59—hype targets 100
Stop-loss at the original price, now it's 55
I watched MSTR at 50, but after it dipped to 80 and then rebounded, I never did it again
Go long at 1850 for Hailix—I'll stay as long as I don't get liquidated; liquidation price is 1200
After that, stopped out at 1695—now Hailix is 1000
Opinions are opinions; the market is the market
Don’t use your own views to challenge the market—that’s just stupid behavior
Respect the market forever and you’ll survive; whether it slaps your face or not doesn’t matter to me at all 😄
Today is the sage hour
Let’s continue deepening the analysis from last time
Nvidia’s new GPUs have cut memory usage
So the straightforward logic reasoning is that
within total AI spending, the memory share gets smaller and the GPU share gets bigger
With more GPUs, demand for optical modules also increases
The next round of speculation should be about optics. Given the previous trend where optics and storage rose and fell together, it may be considered to wait until storage pulls the optical modules down with it before starting
If the price action separates directly, then we won’t do anything first
If I do open positions, I will open “AAOI” and “Marvell”
Let’s continue deepening the analysis from last time
Nvidia’s new GPUs have cut memory usage
So the straightforward logic reasoning is that
within total AI spending, the memory share gets smaller and the GPU share gets bigger
With more GPUs, demand for optical modules also increases
The next round of speculation should be about optics. Given the previous trend where optics and storage rose and fell together, it may be considered to wait until storage pulls the optical modules down with it before starting
If the price action separates directly, then we won’t do anything first
If I do open positions, I will open “AAOI” and “Marvell”
不太懂交易
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Today I took a look at the market and I’ll write my analysis of storage-line trends:
Actually, long before this big rebound, I had already written a post saying that storage was entering a slow, downward drifting mode. The end result was that the positions of those based on sentiment/positioning were taken over by Castle Securities. Then the storage sector rallied with a massive bullish candle—probably the combined effect of active buying plus short-covering.
Yesterday, SanDisk’s earnings report came out and beat expectations by a lot, and that also triggered a big move. It made me think seriously: if an earnings beat will still lead to declines, then what kind of news could possibly restore the upward momentum in storage?
From the beginning of the year until now, the product price increase has gone from steep gains to gradually slowing down. Storage companies have also all been locking prices, hoping to break out of the cycle.
Price-locking itself sends two signals:
1) Prices won’t rise further.
2) High gross margins can be sustained.
The market will trade two expectations:
1) The price cycle has peaked.
2) A rotation from cyclicals to value stocks.
From what I can see now, the market is trading the first expectation: the cyclicals are at the top and the price cycle has peaked.
I personally don’t look favorably on storage trends over the next three months. If the market cuts valuations based on the idea that the cycle has topped, it could lead to a very ugly selloff.
If we follow that logic, the only trading opportunity is this: when the market has already killed valuations as if it were a cyclical peak, the storage companies are still able to maintain high gross margins.
We’ll have to wait patiently for the market’s answer.
Actually, long before this big rebound, I had already written a post saying that storage was entering a slow, downward drifting mode. The end result was that the positions of those based on sentiment/positioning were taken over by Castle Securities. Then the storage sector rallied with a massive bullish candle—probably the combined effect of active buying plus short-covering.
Yesterday, SanDisk’s earnings report came out and beat expectations by a lot, and that also triggered a big move. It made me think seriously: if an earnings beat will still lead to declines, then what kind of news could possibly restore the upward momentum in storage?
From the beginning of the year until now, the product price increase has gone from steep gains to gradually slowing down. Storage companies have also all been locking prices, hoping to break out of the cycle.
Price-locking itself sends two signals:
1) Prices won’t rise further.
2) High gross margins can be sustained.
The market will trade two expectations:
1) The price cycle has peaked.
2) A rotation from cyclicals to value stocks.
From what I can see now, the market is trading the first expectation: the cyclicals are at the top and the price cycle has peaked.
I personally don’t look favorably on storage trends over the next three months. If the market cuts valuations based on the idea that the cycle has topped, it could lead to a very ugly selloff.
If we follow that logic, the only trading opportunity is this: when the market has already killed valuations as if it were a cyclical peak, the storage companies are still able to maintain high gross margins.
We’ll have to wait patiently for the market’s answer.
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