STURMANDOB
66 Posts
STURMANDOB
Дневник анализа крипто-фьючерсов с помощью инструментов для отслеживания тренда и метрик:Smart Money, Alligator и т.д... Не сигналы, а реальный процесс разбора.
XRP Holder
High-Frequency Trader
5.6 Years
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💵 #USDT.D — stablecoin dominance is turning downward
Index 8.379%. Today I’ll break down not a coin, but a metric that many people miss. 👀
What it is: USDT dominance is the share of the stablecoin in the total cryptocurrency market capitalization. It rises when people move out of coins into dollars and sit in cash. It falls when money comes back into BTC, ETH, and alts. That’s why the chart usually moves in the opposite direction of the market.
Structure: a peak of 9.3% at the start of July, followed by a decline. From mid-July, the index was moving up in a narrowing wedge—typical correction after a drop. Now the price has broken down out of it to around 8.38%.
Levels: 8.20 is the nearest support; below that are 7.85 and 7.55. On top, 8.60 and 8.80—returning there would invalidate the picture.
If the decline continues, that means money is flowing from cash back into coins. That’s also why the correlation with BTC is growing—BTC is just buying the drop for the third week in a row.
One caveat. Dominance is a ratio, not an amount. It can drop even when coins’ prices rise while the stablecoin volume stays unchanged. In other words, the index confirms the move, but doesn’t create it.
Watching the structure, not a signal.
Index 8.379%. Today I’ll break down not a coin, but a metric that many people miss. 👀
What it is: USDT dominance is the share of the stablecoin in the total cryptocurrency market capitalization. It rises when people move out of coins into dollars and sit in cash. It falls when money comes back into BTC, ETH, and alts. That’s why the chart usually moves in the opposite direction of the market.
Structure: a peak of 9.3% at the start of July, followed by a decline. From mid-July, the index was moving up in a narrowing wedge—typical correction after a drop. Now the price has broken down out of it to around 8.38%.
Levels: 8.20 is the nearest support; below that are 7.85 and 7.55. On top, 8.60 and 8.80—returning there would invalidate the picture.
If the decline continues, that means money is flowing from cash back into coins. That’s also why the correlation with BTC is growing—BTC is just buying the drop for the third week in a row.
One caveat. Dominance is a ratio, not an amount. It can drop even when coins’ prices rise while the stablecoin volume stays unchanged. In other words, the index confirms the move, but doesn’t create it.
Watching the structure, not a signal.
🟠 #BTC / 4H — we’re approaching the trend again
Price: 64,818, up 0.82%. Yesterday’s pullback to 64.2 was bought up, and we’re back at the same spot where we previously turned around.
Structure: the 4H moving averages have turned upward and are moving in a steady bundle—the price has been holding above them for several candles. The volatility bands are widening; the upper boundary is around 65.5. From the 62.5 minimum, the channel upward remains intact, and the lower boundary has moved up to 63.5.
Over all of this, there is still a descending trendline from the old highs. Right now it runs around 66.5–67.0 and is still the thing preventing the picture from fully turning around. Every time it’s been approached since the start of the week, it has ended with a pullback.
Levels: 65.0 and 65.4 are the nearest levels above; then 66.7. Below: 64.0 / 63.9—support from the past few days, and 62.5 is the boundary of the entire move.
As long as the trendline goal holds, any rise remains a move within the correction. It’s a boring conclusion, but there’s no other data.
Third time this week approaching the same level. Either they push it down, or they get tired. 😅
A structural observation, not a signal!
Price: 64,818, up 0.82%. Yesterday’s pullback to 64.2 was bought up, and we’re back at the same spot where we previously turned around.
Structure: the 4H moving averages have turned upward and are moving in a steady bundle—the price has been holding above them for several candles. The volatility bands are widening; the upper boundary is around 65.5. From the 62.5 minimum, the channel upward remains intact, and the lower boundary has moved up to 63.5.
Over all of this, there is still a descending trendline from the old highs. Right now it runs around 66.5–67.0 and is still the thing preventing the picture from fully turning around. Every time it’s been approached since the start of the week, it has ended with a pullback.
Levels: 65.0 and 65.4 are the nearest levels above; then 66.7. Below: 64.0 / 63.9—support from the past few days, and 62.5 is the boundary of the entire move.
As long as the trendline goal holds, any rise remains a move within the correction. It’s a boring conclusion, but there’s no other data.
Third time this week approaching the same level. Either they push it down, or they get tired. 😅
A structural observation, not a signal!
🟠 $BTC / 4H — pressure has eased
Price is 64,417, up 0.53% over the day. Yesterday we sat under 63.7K and couldn’t move — today we took the level and are holding above it. 👀
Structure: those two sell blocks that were pressing all week — 63.5–63.7K and 64.2–64.5K — the price passed right through. Now they’re working the other way, like support. Testing this will be the main event in the next few candles.
Heatmap (map of clusters of traders’ stop orders with leverage):
— Daily: heavy clusters at 65.0K and 67–68K on top; a cushion at 60–61K below
— 4H: about 8.5K is left around 62K; a larger layer is closer to 66K
— Liquidity above is still noticeably higher
Levels of interest: 65.0 / 65.4 / 66.0 on top; 63.8 / 63.5 / 62.5 below.
What to watch:
1️⃣ A pullback to 63.8–64.0 and a bounce up — yesterday’s resistance has turned into support; that confirms the breakout.
2️⃣ A return below 63.5 — then the entire daily rise turns out to be a false breakout, and we’re back inside the old range.
3️⃣ Approach to 65.0–65.4: that’s where the first serious cluster sits, and the reaction there will tell more than the breakout itself.
It’s nice when, after a week of chop, the structure finally gives direction. Only thing is, that’s exactly on exits like this that people most often get trapped. 😅
Watch the structure, not a signal!
Price is 64,417, up 0.53% over the day. Yesterday we sat under 63.7K and couldn’t move — today we took the level and are holding above it. 👀
Structure: those two sell blocks that were pressing all week — 63.5–63.7K and 64.2–64.5K — the price passed right through. Now they’re working the other way, like support. Testing this will be the main event in the next few candles.
Heatmap (map of clusters of traders’ stop orders with leverage):
— Daily: heavy clusters at 65.0K and 67–68K on top; a cushion at 60–61K below
— 4H: about 8.5K is left around 62K; a larger layer is closer to 66K
— Liquidity above is still noticeably higher
Levels of interest: 65.0 / 65.4 / 66.0 on top; 63.8 / 63.5 / 62.5 below.
What to watch:
1️⃣ A pullback to 63.8–64.0 and a bounce up — yesterday’s resistance has turned into support; that confirms the breakout.
2️⃣ A return below 63.5 — then the entire daily rise turns out to be a false breakout, and we’re back inside the old range.
3️⃣ Approach to 65.0–65.4: that’s where the first serious cluster sits, and the reaction there will tell more than the breakout itself.
It’s nice when, after a week of chop, the structure finally gives direction. Only thing is, that’s exactly on exits like this that people most often get trapped. 😅
Watch the structure, not a signal!
🚨 #BTC | August — a difficult month for Bitcoin
📉 Over the last 13 completed years, August closed higher only 4 times. The median is -6.99%, one of the worst figures of the year.
🐻 In bearish cycles, the picture is even tougher:
• 2014 — -17.55%
• 2018 — -9.27%
• 2022 — -13.88%
On the charts, you can see how those Augustes ended: declines of 38%, 62%, and 72% by the end of the cycle.
This August closed with a symbolic gain of 0.26%.
⚠️ But seasonality is a weak factor. 13 observations are statistically too few—it's easy to spot a pattern that may not actually exist. What matters more is volumes, liquidity, and levels right now.
👀 According to statistics, September is even worse: median -3.12%.
An observation, not a signal 🙏
📉 Over the last 13 completed years, August closed higher only 4 times. The median is -6.99%, one of the worst figures of the year.
🐻 In bearish cycles, the picture is even tougher:
• 2014 — -17.55%
• 2018 — -9.27%
• 2022 — -13.88%
On the charts, you can see how those Augustes ended: declines of 38%, 62%, and 72% by the end of the cycle.
This August closed with a symbolic gain of 0.26%.
⚠️ But seasonality is a weak factor. 13 observations are statistically too few—it's easy to spot a pattern that may not actually exist. What matters more is volumes, liquidity, and levels right now.
👀 According to statistics, September is even worse: median -3.12%.
An observation, not a signal 🙏
#ETH
Price 1 867.85, up 0.34%.
🔹 Key support level — 1 800 through the end of the month.
If price holds it, there’s a chance of further upside toward 1 972-2 040. That same area on the chart has a red layer at 1.68M around 1 960, meaning an approach to this level will definitely trigger a reaction.
⚠️ Losing and consolidating below 1 800 may open the way for further correction. The nearest support below is around 1 700, where there’s a green zone at 933.03K.
We’re watching how price reacts at the level 👀
What seems important to me here. The distance between 1 800 and 1 972 is small, but on both sides of the current price there are substantial clusters. Price is squeezed, and as long as it’s hanging in the middle, there’s no clarity. Clarity will come exactly when one of the boundaries is broken with volume.
Until then, any movement inside the channel is noise—on which most often people lose money when trying to guess in advance.
What I’m monitoring:
Holding 1 800 and volume showing on the buy-side.
Break above 1 900, then the 1 960-1 972 zone.
Break down—then the target is 1 700.
Watching the structure, not a signal 🙏
Price 1 867.85, up 0.34%.
🔹 Key support level — 1 800 through the end of the month.
If price holds it, there’s a chance of further upside toward 1 972-2 040. That same area on the chart has a red layer at 1.68M around 1 960, meaning an approach to this level will definitely trigger a reaction.
⚠️ Losing and consolidating below 1 800 may open the way for further correction. The nearest support below is around 1 700, where there’s a green zone at 933.03K.
We’re watching how price reacts at the level 👀
What seems important to me here. The distance between 1 800 and 1 972 is small, but on both sides of the current price there are substantial clusters. Price is squeezed, and as long as it’s hanging in the middle, there’s no clarity. Clarity will come exactly when one of the boundaries is broken with volume.
Until then, any movement inside the channel is noise—on which most often people lose money when trying to guess in advance.
What I’m monitoring:
Holding 1 800 and volume showing on the buy-side.
Break above 1 900, then the 1 960-1 972 zone.
Break down—then the target is 1 700.
Watching the structure, not a signal 🙏
$GIGGLE · 1m
Price 42.67, +0.40%. Candle range 42.51-42.89.
Today the asset shows active growth; in its history there were aggressive bullish candles. Right now the price is moving along a slanted line with large buyers present, and the lows are being lifted.
Above there is a cluster of levels: 42.79, 42.98, 43.44. Beyond them, a liquidity pool is expected—meaning the stops of those who were selling from these marks.
The logic is simple: accumulation under the levels, then an impulsive breakout on active buying and the capture of that liquidity.
Targets above: 43.74, 44.11, 44.37.
But I’ll be honest: I always read the one-minute timeframe with an adjustment. At this pace the picture changes in just a few candles, and what now looks like a neat squeeze could turn out to be a top in ten minutes. Plus volume is 5.75K versus the average 430K—so the inflow right now is weak.
One more thing: over the past day, the coin has moved from 24 to 43. We covered it this morning, and since then the rally has continued. The longer this run lasts, the sharper the pullback is usually.
Breakout: a move through 43.44 with increasing volume.
Invalidation (breakdown): a return below the slanted line around 41.5.
Pause: the squeeze continues without volume.
Watch the structure, not a signal. On the 1-minute chart it’s especially easy to catch emotions instead of movement 🙏
Price 42.67, +0.40%. Candle range 42.51-42.89.
Today the asset shows active growth; in its history there were aggressive bullish candles. Right now the price is moving along a slanted line with large buyers present, and the lows are being lifted.
Above there is a cluster of levels: 42.79, 42.98, 43.44. Beyond them, a liquidity pool is expected—meaning the stops of those who were selling from these marks.
The logic is simple: accumulation under the levels, then an impulsive breakout on active buying and the capture of that liquidity.
Targets above: 43.74, 44.11, 44.37.
But I’ll be honest: I always read the one-minute timeframe with an adjustment. At this pace the picture changes in just a few candles, and what now looks like a neat squeeze could turn out to be a top in ten minutes. Plus volume is 5.75K versus the average 430K—so the inflow right now is weak.
One more thing: over the past day, the coin has moved from 24 to 43. We covered it this morning, and since then the rally has continued. The longer this run lasts, the sharper the pullback is usually.
Breakout: a move through 43.44 with increasing volume.
Invalidation (breakdown): a return below the slanted line around 41.5.
Pause: the squeeze continues without volume.
Watch the structure, not a signal. On the 1-minute chart it’s especially easy to catch emotions instead of movement 🙏
STURMANDOB
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Bullish$GIGGLE · 15m
Price 42.62, +1.69%. Candle range 41.93-43.29.
A vertical candle on the chart 😅 In a single day, the coin went from 24 to 43.5—the last surge from 37 to 43 took a couple of hours.
I understand what it feels like—you want to chase it. The candle looks like a missed opportunity; your finger reaches for the button on its own. But let’s look at the liquidation map.
The whole growth story is laid out like a staircase: bands are packed tightly from 24 to 32, then they thin out; above 36 they appear as separate lines. Under the price there’s a huge mass of positions; above it there’s almost nothing.
The thickest layers are around 28 and 30-31.
What worries me: a rise of more than 75% in a day on a low-liquidity coin usually ends with a quick unloading.
Levels higher up: 44.00, 46.00, 48.84. Support below: 39.61.
What I’m watching:
Continuation: holding above 41.70 and breaking 43.29 on volume. Break/invalid: dropping below 39.61. Pause: consolidation 41-43.
Watch the structure, not a signal! Position size matters more than the entry point 🙏
Price 42.62, +1.69%. Candle range 41.93-43.29.
A vertical candle on the chart 😅 In a single day, the coin went from 24 to 43.5—the last surge from 37 to 43 took a couple of hours.
I understand what it feels like—you want to chase it. The candle looks like a missed opportunity; your finger reaches for the button on its own. But let’s look at the liquidation map.
The whole growth story is laid out like a staircase: bands are packed tightly from 24 to 32, then they thin out; above 36 they appear as separate lines. Under the price there’s a huge mass of positions; above it there’s almost nothing.
The thickest layers are around 28 and 30-31.
What worries me: a rise of more than 75% in a day on a low-liquidity coin usually ends with a quick unloading.
Levels higher up: 44.00, 46.00, 48.84. Support below: 39.61.
What I’m watching:
Continuation: holding above 41.70 and breaking 43.29 on volume. Break/invalid: dropping below 39.61. Pause: consolidation 41-43.
Watch the structure, not a signal! Position size matters more than the entry point 🙏
$UAI · 5m
Price 0.4757, +1.11%. Candle range 0.4692–0.4771.
The coin is in a compression phase toward several resistance levels. The trend is bullish: lows are not being updated, and the price is pulling up toward the highs along the upward slope from 0.40.
I’ll point out the top part of the chart. There isn’t just one level there—it’s a cascade: 0.4776, 0.4800, 0.4826, 0.4846, 0.4920, 0.4937. The red markers show six points where the seller stepped in.
The cascade is more interesting than a single line. Each layer has its own stops, and if the price starts piercing them, the move can pick itself up. But until the cascade is broken through, the price may grind against it for a long time.
Levels above the cascade: 0.4996, 0.5037, 0.5078.
Volume is a bit concerning: 507K vs an average of 320K sounds fine, but it’s just a one-off candle. There’s no steady inflow.
Why I’m watching:
Breakout: a move through 0.4846 with increased volume.
Breakdown: a return below the upward slope around 0.462.
Pause: the compression continues.
Watching the structure, not a signal!
Price 0.4757, +1.11%. Candle range 0.4692–0.4771.
The coin is in a compression phase toward several resistance levels. The trend is bullish: lows are not being updated, and the price is pulling up toward the highs along the upward slope from 0.40.
I’ll point out the top part of the chart. There isn’t just one level there—it’s a cascade: 0.4776, 0.4800, 0.4826, 0.4846, 0.4920, 0.4937. The red markers show six points where the seller stepped in.
The cascade is more interesting than a single line. Each layer has its own stops, and if the price starts piercing them, the move can pick itself up. But until the cascade is broken through, the price may grind against it for a long time.
Levels above the cascade: 0.4996, 0.5037, 0.5078.
Volume is a bit concerning: 507K vs an average of 320K sounds fine, but it’s just a one-off candle. There’s no steady inflow.
Why I’m watching:
Breakout: a move through 0.4846 with increased volume.
Breakdown: a return below the upward slope around 0.462.
Pause: the compression continues.
Watching the structure, not a signal!
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