漂亮定乾坤

213 Posts

漂亮定乾坤

黄金美股数据专家

29 Following

79 Followers

578 Liked

Posts

All

Quotes

漂亮定乾坤

Article

Rate hikes aren’t a multiple-choice question—they’re a question of credibility—viewing it from Waller’s perspective

The market has essentially already made the decision for Waller. On the eve of the decision, the CME “FedWatch” tool showed a 92.5% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September, and only a 7.5% probability of keeping rates unchanged. The target range for the federal funds rate will be raised from the current 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%.
But what the market is truly waiting for isn’t these 25 basis points. What will actually drive the next phase of global bond markets, the FX market, and risk assets is whether Waller can use this decision to respond to three signals: is the oil-price shock a temporary disruption, or will it spread to wages, service prices, and long-term inflation expectations? Is this just an adjustment, or the start of a new tightening cycle? And how much economic and market pressure is Waller willing to endure to keep inflation down?

漂亮定乾坤

Overall, the core contradiction in the global market today lies in a fierce tug-of-war between “priced-in expectations” and “real-world policy”: whether the Fed will raise rates in September and Waller’s hawkish remarks. Their impact depends heavily on how much the market trusts the Fed’s credibility. The fact that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has already broken through 5% is the reality. Moreover, this round is fundamentally different from October 2023—inflation is more stubborn, fiscal pressure is greater, and the dip-buying demand is weaker. Long-end yields are driven more by structural factors such as fiscal deficits and term premia. If yields were to rapidly run out of control and climb, it could trigger a decline in U.S. equities and even a financial crisis. As for Bitcoin, falling sharply to 59,500–$72,500), in the absence of extreme catalysts, it is difficult to reach. In general, the sharp volatility across asset classes is essentially a repricing by the market under constraints on the Fed’s policy space, the accumulation of fiscal risks, and geopolitical inflation pressures. Ultimately, the direction of prices depends on how fast yields rise, whether the Fed can strike a balance between controlling inflation and maintaining financial stability, and whether market trust in policy credibility can be sustained.

BTC+0.28%

漂亮定乾坤

Article

Powell’s tie-breaking decision: the Fed votes 6-6, rates unchanged

On September 17, 2026, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s FOMC ended in a 6-6 tie. The rate-hike agenda was postponed due to an inability to reach consensus, and the federal funds rate was kept unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. This was the first FOMC vote tie since 1936. Behind it was a rare standoff between the hawks and doves, with both sides holding equal power.
---
A divided committee: how did the 6-6 tie come about?
The central conflict of this meeting lay in the tug-of-war between inflation pressure and a slowdown in employment. At the July meeting, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President Logan all cast dissenting votes, arguing for a 25-basis-point rate hike—marking the first time in nearly nine years that three votes in the same direction were cast in opposition. Governor Barr also clearly stated in early September that if inflation failed to fall back toward the 2% target at a sufficiently convincing pace, he was prepared to support a rate hike.

漂亮定乾坤

Article

LITE in-depth research report: the submarine cable rejuvenation cycle × monopolistic positioning of lasers

I. Investment summary
Investment recommendation: maintain a positive watch on LITE. The company sits at the core of the dual demand drivers of a global submarine cable “rejuvenation” cycle and the upgrade of AI optical interconnects. With its monopolistic positioning in InP pump lasers and 200G EML coherent optical chips, the visibility of outstanding orders extends to 2028, and capacity is sold out. Based on the wave structure starting from July 29, the target for Wave 1 at $1,034.66 closely matches the actual high of $1,026.76. After the pullback is completed, the first target range for restarting the upward wave is around $1,600.
Core logic: from 2026 to 2030, around 470,000 kilometers (146 routes) of old submarine cables will be concentrated in retirement. Demand is “bottlenecked” on core routes such as within Asia and Europe–North America, with the lit-capacity share exceeding 50%, forming a structural capacity shortage. For upgrades of existing infrastructure, coherent terminals and amplifiers must be replaced. The key component in amplifiers is precisely LITE’s InP laser, resulting in structural supply shortages.

LITEB-0.74%

漂亮定乾坤

$LITE 47万 km old cables begin “bone replacement”: LITE’s laser scalpel slices toward 800 billion

• Base layer: from 2026 to 2030, nearly 470,000 km of subsea cables will be centrally retired; they are stuck on core routers, with bright capacity exceeding 50%, creating a structural “capacity shortage”;

• Location: while others lay cables, LITE sells the “heart” — an InP pump laser + 200G EML monopoly; with orders visible through 2028 and capacity sold out;

• Technicals: Wave 1 target 1034 ≈ actual 1026; the 9/9 spike-top narrows and the volume contracts, pulling back to complete the retracement and restart the rise wave’s first target

LITE-0.71%

漂亮定乾坤

The dentist will make achievements tonight

拾荒弟

Bullish

Brothers, we've already gone all in on the long position

Is there still hope? The forced liquidation price of 1974 might explode the 100WU principal

The cost of 2151

漂亮定乾坤

Wash first cuts rates then reduces the balance sheet, after the war ends, combined with rate cuts leading to a violent surge, and after the US midterm elections, combined with high inflation to reduce the balance sheet again.

Volvo moment casts a shadow over gold, which may evolve into a long-term adjustment after the plunge.
International spot gold plummeted to the $4100 mark on Monday, marking the lowest level since the end of 2025, with a cumulative decline of over 17% within just five trading days, becoming one of the most severe short-term declines in over forty years. Although news of the United States willing to negotiate prompted a significant rebound in gold prices from the day's low, the previous plunge has clearly outlined a fundamental shift in market narratives: expectations of tighter monetary policy have regained dominance, while long-term themes that previously supported gold prices, such as de-dollarization, fiscal risks, and trade uncertainties, have been temporarily relegated to a secondary position.

漂亮定乾坤

If a war breaks out over the island five days later, the silver market will continue to experience significant volatility, and this condition being met may drive silver prices to rise rapidly.

$XAG On Tuesday, the silver market showed a slight decline, briefly falling below the $70 threshold during the session, but quickly regained buying support, indicating intense competition between bulls and bears near this level. Notably, the hammer candlestick pattern formed on Monday's chart was quite striking, and this technical signal, which usually indicates bottom support, has drawn widespread attention from market participants. From the performance on Tuesday, the market at least showed an attempt to replicate the rebound seen the previous day. Technically, if it can successfully break through the upper edge of the $70 threshold, silver prices are expected to further challenge the next key resistance level located around $80.

XAG+0.15%

漂亮定乾坤

After the end of the U.S.-Iran war, precious metals are expected to dip before jumping, with gold possibly rebounding rapidly at $3,500.

Recently, there has been a dramatic shift in the international geopolitical landscape. With the substantial change in the U.S. government's diplomatic approach, the tensions with Iran have eased, and market concerns about large-scale conflict have temporarily dissipated. However, for precious metal investors, the real storm may not come from geopolitics itself but from the undercurrents hidden within the global financial system. We believe that the short-term recovery trend of international spot gold may only be a temporary phenomenon, and before a new bull market truly begins, the market must first undergo a brutal 'deep squat' washout.

XAU-0.11%

漂亮定乾坤

【Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (Upper Limit) in the U.S. as of December 10】
Previous Value: 4.00% Expected: 3.75% Published Value: Not Released
Jin10 Data Importance Rating: ★★★★★
Data Release Time: December 11, 2025 03:00

混沌科技

Bullish

$ALLO still optimistic about new coins, can go long at 0.17, many altcoins are stirring at this node, a careless mistake might lead to missing out on a sell! But opportunities are for those who are prepared, keeping up with the market rhythm without falling behind is the main theme! Don't set your targets too low, around 0.205 is where you can clear out!

漂亮定乾坤

$PAXG Spot gold fell nearly $30, breaking below $4180; gold concept stocks declined, with Kaldoren Mining and AngloGold Ashanti falling over 3%. Russia announced it will restrict gold bar exports starting in 2026.

PAXG-0.22%

漂亮定乾坤

Come on

天晴ETH

Back to being a clown 🤡

Is there anyone who wants to tease me?

漂亮定乾坤

Bullish

Bat

BAT+2.55%

ETH-0.02%

漂亮定乾坤

Bullish

Bat

BAT+2.55%

ETH-0.02%

漂亮定乾坤

$BAT This is just unpredictable

BAT+2.55%

漂亮定乾坤

Liquidity crisis compounded by sudden interest rate hikes before Old Powell's departure...

天晴ETH

Bitcoin and Ethereum have returned to the positions before my last round of buying at 2000 and selling.

If I remember correctly, my average price in the last round was
eth 1890 sold at 3150-3500
btc 82000 sold at 93000

Let's build positions in batches with spot trading, and let's see about contracts later.

Because the expectations in the last round were very good.

Interest rate cut expectations, geopolitical ceasefire expectations, Trump coming to power expectations, ETF expectations, institutional expectations.

However, this time it seems that there is no good narrative in sight.

Moreover, the American economy and political struggles are far worse than we imagined.

People in several major countries are also experiencing liquidity tightening.

As for third world countries, it's even worse.

Recently, the mainland has strengthened the new round of crackdown on virtual currencies.

My Douyin account has just been permanently banned.

The entire Alibaba system has blocked keywords related to Binance and OK exchange.

Tencent, Baidu, ByteDance, and other major domestic companies are probably not far behind.

OTC is getting harder, and the threshold for newcomers to enter the circle is getting higher.

This further leads to a lack of liquidity.

I have always been bearish, but there have been some issues here; there has been too much short-term trading.

I won’t mention the mistakes here.

There is a huge gap between knowing and doing.

Life still has to go on, and we need to look ahead.

Trading is very difficult; it requires infinite backup and firm belief.

But even though it's hard, we have to play; this bottom still has to be bought.

Buying the bottom could be fatal, but even if it’s fatal, we still have to buy.

However, this is not yet a price for all-in; we are still far from it.

But what seems far away is not that far; how much longer can it drop from 2800?

Let it drop another 1300 dollars, and we will enter in this range.

However, the pump won't be that quick; manage expectations well.

Pessimists are always correct, while optimists achieve success.

I have seen many people disappear along the way, and I will also be very sad.

But this is the ruthless and cruel meat grinder of the crypto world.

Be a bit optimistic strategically, and a bit cautious tactically.

Chaos is the ladder for everyone who wants to change their fate.

The real bottom may take 3-6 months to grind.

Current prices: Ethereum 2800, BTC 87000.

I have probably entered 5% of my spot position and will hold on.

漂亮定乾坤

Rate hikes aren’t a multiple-choice question—they’re a question of credibility—viewing it from Waller’s perspective

Powell’s tie-breaking decision: the Fed votes 6-6, rates unchanged

LITE in-depth research report: the submarine cable rejuvenation cycle × monopolistic positioning of lasers

Wash first cuts rates then reduces the balance sheet, after the war ends, combined with rate cuts leading to a violent surge, and after the US midterm elections, combined with high inflation to reduce the balance sheet again.

If a war breaks out over the island five days later, the silver market will continue to experience significant volatility, and this condition being met may drive silver prices to rise rapidly.

After the end of the U.S.-Iran war, precious metals are expected to dip before jumping, with gold possibly rebounding rapidly at $3,500.

Trending Topics