股惑仔

$ONDS Four-Star Command Headquarters and $74 Billion: ONDS’ Strategic Moment

On September 30, the U.S. Secretary of Defense announced the establishment of a four-star “Autonomous Operations Command” to oversee drones, AI, and command systems, and requested $74 billion to support drones and counter-drone efforts. This means autonomous warfare has moved from a lab exercise to a standing line item in the defense budget.

The logic isn’t complicated: on the Russia-Ukraine battlefield, $500 FPV drones have been used to knock down air-defense missiles worth millions of dollars—bringing the war back to an “arithmetic of unit kill cost.” And after the DJI ban, the Pentagon’s self-developed substitutes cost 8–14 times more; the Green UAS list has become the only domestic replacement window.

ONDS is perfectly positioned in this window. Its Optimus is a hangar-style drone certified by the FAA in the U.S., and it just secured a $14.3 million defense contract in Q2. Iron Drone Raider focuses on countermeasures and has already completed government pilot programs across Europe and Asia. In Q3, revenue surged roughly 6x year over year, setting a record as it expands U.S. domestic production capacity and hires to attract retired officers and tap defense-sector connections.

The risks are equally clear: small-cap high volatility; the $74 billion is a budget request rather than an allocated funding amount; the Green List is still under application; and Anduril is eyeing the space. This article does not constitute investment advice.

$BTC 怎么走到 90,123（红色虚线）

Current positioning

Your teacher (Waves Theory Study) 9/29 latest assessment:

• The purple line adjustment has progressed to the third segment (c wave end)

• As long as the green line is not broken: 80,026 → only a blue 5-2 pullback → then blue 5-3/5-4/5-5

• If the red dashed line at 90,123 is broken: the purple line can’t form a pushing wave → limited downside space → further confirms it’s (1) the path

Three-step path

Step 1: Blue 5-2 wrapping up (now ~84,400)

• The purple line’s c wave completes; stabilization in the 84,000–85,000 area is enough

• Absolute limit: it must not break 80,026; once broken, it would invalidate the entire Blue 5 structure

• Signal: 2H MACD red histogram contracting (currently DIF 7.18 / DEA -146.83 has just formed a golden cross), and KDJ is low

Step 2: Blue 5-3 main rise (84,400 → 88,000–89,000)

• Break above the prior high 87,395 is the confirmation signal

• Blue 5-1 rises from 74,968 to 87,395 = 12,427 points; Blue 5-3 is usually not shorter than that

• Counting from 84,000, the first target is 88,000–89,000; the interim liquidation zone at 87,904 (3.63600e8 short positions) will be absorbed

Step 3: Blue 5-4 pullback + Blue 5-5 sprint (→ 90,123)

• Blue 5-4 is a normal retracement of Blue 5-3’s 0.382 (about 86,000–86,500)

• Blue 5-5 rallies on exhaustion, ultimately topping out near the red dashed line at 90,123

Key confirmation / invalidation
Status | Meaning | Action
Hold 84,000–85,000 | Continue rising | Blue 5-2 ends; hold longs
Break 87,395 | Confirm Blue 5-3 | Add more; target 90,123
Rise above 90,123 | The purple line can’t form a pushing wave; downside is limited | Take profit/trim, but there’s no need to panic
Break below 80,026 | Blue 5 ends; enter a major correction (0.2–0.618) | Set a stop-loss and wait to re-enter at 78,500/75,000

One sentence

Hold 80,026 → purple c wave finishes → Blue 5-3 breaks 87,395 → Blue 5-5 surges to 90,123. Breaking above 90,123 is actually good (the purple line fails to form a pushing wave, so the subsequent drop won’t be deep); only if 80,026 is broken should you run. The above is a wave projection and does not constitute investment advice.

$TSLA 【US to lower vehicle fuel efficiency standards; fuel consumption and emissions may rise】US officials said on Saturday that the US Department of Transportation will finalize regulations on Monday that significantly lower vehicle fuel economy standards, applicable through 2031. This means the US will reverse the policy pursued during the Biden administration to push automakers to produce more electric vehicles. President Donald Trump said he has approved new fuel economy standards for cars and trucks and said the new rules will lower the price of new vehicles. US Transportation Secretary Duffy said, “American auto workers will see a major victory on Monday.” According to the Department of Transportation’s own estimates, the new standards will reduce the cost of new cars, but fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emissions over the coming decades will increase.

Overall, the core contradiction in the global market today lies in a fierce tug-of-war between “priced-in expectations” and “real-world policy”: whether the Fed will raise rates in September and Waller’s hawkish remarks. Their impact depends heavily on how much the market trusts the Fed’s credibility. The fact that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has already broken through 5% is the reality. Moreover, this round is fundamentally different from October 2023—inflation is more stubborn, fiscal pressure is greater, and the dip-buying demand is weaker. Long-end yields are driven more by structural factors such as fiscal deficits and term premia. If yields were to rapidly run out of control and climb, it could trigger a decline in U.S. equities and even a financial crisis. As for Bitcoin, falling sharply to 59,500–$72,500), in the absence of extreme catalysts, it is difficult to reach. In general, the sharp volatility across asset classes is essentially a repricing by the market under constraints on the Fed’s policy space, the accumulation of fiscal risks, and geopolitical inflation pressures. Ultimately, the direction of prices depends on how fast yields rise, whether the Fed can strike a balance between controlling inflation and maintaining financial stability, and whether market trust in policy credibility can be sustained.