SpeculationLab

When I was learning painting, my teacher said, 'The best people have the best timing for stopping.'
Even now, while trading, I really think the same thing.
It's not about buying; it's about where to sell or where to cut that makes a person strong.

【The Core of the Rebound｜Vegas Edition】

After the price moves significantly away from the moving average line, it first returns to around Vegas.
When a "long wick" appears here, it becomes easier for a rebound to occur.

The reason for this is that the orders that have diverged are consumed, and there are many traders who base their strategies on Vegas. Whether it’s an upward or downward movement, this "initial return" is an easy target point.

However, since rebounds can occur deeply, a smaller position size + pre-set stop-loss is essential.

#BTC #ETH #candlestick_patterns

【Breaking News】Nomura revises FOMC outlook to 'rate cut'
Nomura predicts a 25bps rate cut at the December meeting.
The background includes dovish comments from Williams and Daly.
However, four members oppose the outlook for a rate cut.
On the other hand, Director Milan may support a 50bps rate cut.

Source: Reuters

The world in 2026 will not be about the "evolution of AI," but rather the "fusion" of AI × Robots × Blockchain taking center stage.

Forbes has indicated that technology will connect in one line, and the forms of our work, lives, and businesses will quietly but surely undergo 14 changes.

The foundation of trust in AI, agent economy, specialized robots, privacy regulations, the infrastructure of Web3, and the future where avatars become the "face" of companies——.

2026 will be the year when technology overlaps and the world is redesigned.
I have summarized it in an illustration, so please take a look if you are interested.

#Aİ #ロボット #ブロックチェーン

In the midst of a trend's "consolidation," it becomes easier for a significant movement to occur just once.
This movement is the moment when large players aim for stops.

If buying is skewed sideways, the stops for long positions are mostly on the lower side of the range. It is common to see a quick move to take these out before returning to the original direction.
The key point is the change in OI at the moment of a sharp drop (or rise).

If OI suddenly decreases, it's a sign that stops have been collectively taken out.
Whether in an uptrend or downtrend, this "movement" occurs with the same structure.
A typical move is to break out of the range and run swiftly to the recent high (or low).

#ストップ狩り #BTC #ETH

【The Essence of Ascending and Descending Triangles. What are the 'Precedents' of a Breaking Market?】
An ascending triangle is a shape where the lows gradually rise while the highs are capped. Because buying pressure continues to build, it is a very high-accuracy pattern that tends to break upwards easily.

However, because it is too well-known, right after it breaks, it can easily pull back deeply, so in the short term, it is essential to capture the 'initial wave of movement.'

A descending triangle is the exact opposite, where the highs gradually decline while the lows are supported. It tends to break down easily while being dominated by selling pressure, and it is also likely to extend after breaking down.

In both cases, the break after building pressure over a long time frame is the most reliable.

#BTC #ETH #TechnicalAnalysis

The market where you could "make a fortune in an instant" like in the past will not return.

That's why, now is the time to
・Determine what you can do
・Determine what you cannot do
is important.

Today's illustration summarizes that.

#BTC #ETH #仮想通貨市場

The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike in December is becoming more likely.
The market has already priced in an 80% chance,
and Governor Ueda's remarks have also shifted to a tone typical before a rate hike.
The rapid rise in long-term interest rates and coordination with the government——
now is the most favorable timing for movement.

【Breaking News】Japan's Cryptocurrency Tax System Finally Changing from a Maximum of 55% to 20%? A Revised Roadmap Illustrated

Japan's heavy tax system of "miscellaneous income at a maximum of 55%" is finally showing signs of change.
If this is realized, there is a possibility that Japan's individual investor funds (estimated to be in the trillions of yen) will return to the market.
We have summarized the current situation and future roadmap in a single illustration.

▼ Current Issues (Steep Hill)
・Maximum Tax Rate 55% (Miscellaneous Income)
・No Carryover of Losses (If you lose, it's over)

▼ Future After Revision (Highway)
・Separate Declaration Taxation 20.315% ✨
・Loss Carryover Possible for 3 Years
・Considering the Lifting of ETF Restrictions and Loss Compensation

There is a possibility of implementation as early as 2027.
Will this be the signal for the revival of Japan's Web3? It's worth paying attention to.
Please save and review the illustration👇

$BTC $ETH $XRP
#Japan #Tax #Web3 #CryptoNews #Investment

【The Royal Road of Market Reversal 📉📈｜Head and Shoulders・Inverse Head and Shoulders】
🔹Inverse Head and Shoulders (Bullish Reversal)
・When the neckline is clearly broken, it tends to rise by the range from the center low to the neckline.
・The 4-hour chart has the least number of false signals and functions effectively.
・During an uptrend, it is also effective as 'creating a dip' on the 15-minute/1-hour charts🔥

🔹Head and Shoulders Top (Bearish Reversal)
・A complete reversal of the Inverse Head and Shoulders. After breaking the neckline, it tends to drop by the range from the center high to the neckline.
・If it appears near the upper limit of the range, accuracy increases.
・The reliability is high in the order of 4H > shorter time frames 📉

Both patterns have a strong 'reproducibility of price range' and are essential for reading turning points✨

✨【高精度パターン｜2618セットアップ】
海外でプロがよく使う“2618”は、ダブルトップ／ダブルボトム(=2)とフィボナッチ0.618戻し(=618)を組み合わせた継続パターンです🔥

ネックラインを割ったあとに入る戻しが、ちょうど0.618付近で止まり、再び元の方向へ動き出す流れを狙います。

▼エントリー方法
ダブルトップ：
高値② → ネック割れ → 戻しが0.618付近 → 再度下向きになった瞬間。
ダブルボトム：
安値② → ネック抜け → 押しが0.618付近 → 再び上向きに転じた瞬間。

▼ポイント
・トレンド方向に合わせると精度が高い
・逆張りで使うと勝率が落ちる
・「ネック割れ → 0.618 → 再開」の流れが揃ったらチャンス

🌀 High Win Rate Pattern #3 | Gartley Pattern
The Gartley is a fundamental reversal pattern in harmonics, characterized by its ability to precisely narrow down "where reversals are likely to occur." For those looking to stabilize reversal trades, practicing this shape first is the most efficient method.

📌 The reason the Gartley is strong is that profit-taking, buying on dips, and the overlap of Fibonacci ratios tend to concentrate in the same price range, naturally narrowing down the main reversal zone.
There are only four key points in its structure.
① Ideally, B should stop near 61.8% of XA. If it goes too deep, the accuracy decreases.
② C should firmly exceed 61.8% of the AB retracement. If it completely breaks A, it becomes a different pattern, so a reversal just before A looks cleaner.
③ D is the reversal zone where multiple conditions overlap, such as 78.6% of XA, AB=CD, and AB×1.272. This overlap enhances the accuracy of the Gartley.
④ Within the D zone, it is difficult to react to a single price, so dividing entries is fundamental.

In actual trading, stop loss is just below X, and profit-taking is gradually extended to the 38.2%, 61.8% of AD, and further upward resistance levels. In the case of selling, just look in the opposite direction as is.

🇯🇵 High Probability Pattern | Wyckoff Method 'Signs of Strength'

Before the market genuinely rises, there may be a deliberate weak appearance known as a 'false decline.' During a short-term drop, individual investors may mistakenly believe that 'short selling works,' and as they repeat the same behavior, shorts accumulate, which becomes fuel for the subsequent rise.

As absorption progresses, the moment the preparation is complete, the previously quiet price breaks out sharply with volume—this is what Wyckoff theory refers to as 'Signs of Strength.'

Judgment points are: ① Stopping the decline at a well-traded price range, ② Returning above the range center, ③ Increasing volume. When these three conditions are met, the atmosphere of the market changes dramatically.

📌 Specific Example: BTC from May to July 2021 (4H)
After the sharp drop in May, the price range of $30,000 to $35,000 was where most trading concentrated, and it was repeatedly tested below but couldn't break. After that, a bearish range lasted for about two months, creating an atmosphere of 'no movement' in the overall market.

However, in the background, shorts were accumulating, and quiet buying was progressing. Then, on July 26, volume surged, and BTC robustly broke through the range center (around $34,000). From that moment, the tide reversed, and a textbook-like upward trend formed up to around $48,000 in August✨

If uncertain, waiting for a breakout above the range limit + volume is also a viable option. Profits may be slightly reduced, but the accuracy becomes more stable🙂