张烁峰的剧本日记

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11月21日BTC跌至80600，当晚提示止跌，后续一直明牌看大级别反弹。江恩时间12.8附近叠加91000关键位的魔力在昨晚得到验证，江恩时间窗口内突破91000不回头直接就到了94588。

BTC正在运行针对126000-80600下跌的反弹，该反弹目前暂看日线级别。在该级别下，80600开始的第一波上涨随时可以结束（图1红色路线）。运行一个调整后还有同级别上涨，完成日线级别反弹，随后BTC会继续周线级别的下跌，这个周线起跌点最早在明年一月就会出现。

若近期受外力因素影响，BTC持续走强则可能走出蓝色路线。我个人是不希望看到这种走势，走的太快不是好事。这样走后续不好切入，因为排除不了它一波流把反弹走完这种可能。

大级别看，11.21开始运行的就是图2中框选的这段行情且目前还未结束。

#BTC走势分析

Ethereum bullish sentiment fully ignited? Analysis of strategies to unlock trapped positions in the south

The current price of Ethereum is around $3330, and the current time is 4:40 AM Beijing time. Has the bullish signal for this round of market been clearly confirmed? The answer is obvious — after the main capital stabilized at the key support of $3170, the market immediately launched a rapid rise, with a daily increase of 9.88%, strongly leading the entire cryptocurrency market. From the perspective of resistance layout, $3380 is the first resistance level for upward trends. It is recommended to take partial profits in batches at this position, while the remaining positions can continue to be held, targeting the resonance area of the Fibonacci retracement level at 0.382 and EMA120 dual pressure level, which is above $3520.

From the daily candlestick analysis, the price before publication reached a maximum of $3397 and a minimum of $3089. In terms of technical indicators, the EMA trend indicator is converging upwards, forming a clear bullish pattern; the candlesticks have recorded four consecutive days of gains, consistently holding above the EMA15 key support level ($3088) and relying on it for continuous upward momentum. The volume performance is strong, with the MACD indicator increasing in volume, and both the DIF and DEA lines are rising synchronously near the zero axis, further accumulating momentum; the price has broken through the upper Bollinger Band resistance level ($3286), and can now consider the upper Bollinger Band as short-term support. Investors who have not entered the market can wait for the price to retrace to this support level before following the trend.

Switching to the 4-hour candlestick cycle, the price has broken free from the constraints of the EMA trend indicator, successfully breaking through the Fibonacci retracement level at 0.5 resistance level ($3170), which can serve as a stop-loss reference point for long positions. The technical signals continue to improve, with the MACD indicator rising in volume, and the DIF and DEA opening continue to expand, indicating strong bullish momentum; the price has broken through and stabilized above the 4-hour upper Bollinger Band ($3267), with significant strong trend characteristics. In terms of operational strategy, it is recommended to continue holding long positions and not to consider a short position for now. It is important to be cautious, as if the price high forms a neckline pattern, once the neckline is effectively broken, all remaining long positions should be decisively liquidated for profit; if the neckline pattern does not form, positions can be maintained to continue seeing bullish trends.
#ETH走势分析

Analysis and Operational Strategy for Key Resistance Levels After Bitcoin's Surge

Bitcoin is currently trading around $93,100, with the current time being 4:35 AM Beijing time. This round of market shows a pattern where ETH leads and BTC follows, with prices rising and reaching the first target of $94,200, resulting in significant profits for bulls. The core anchor point for the subsequent trend is whether the morning close can stabilize at the $94,200 level: if it stabilizes, the bullish trend will continue; otherwise, the market is likely to face a technical correction, and investors who have not entered the market can wait for a pullback to follow the trend.

From the daily candlestick perspective, before this report, the price peaked at $94,555 and dipped to a low of $89,370. In terms of technical indicators, the EMA trend indicator is converging upwards, and the previous EMA30 resistance level of $93,400 has been effectively broken, with the current price hitting the key resistance level of 0.618 at $94,200. Once this position stabilizes, the bullish trend will be further confirmed, allowing for a strong long position strategy. The volume and indicators are well-aligned, with MACD continuing to increase, and the DIF and DEA lines are approaching the zero axis; the price briefly broke through the upper Bollinger Band at $94,500, and is currently under pressure at this position, while the KDJ indicator maintains a strong bullish pattern.

Switching to the 4-hour candlestick cycle, if the price achieves a solid breakout of the key resistance, it can be determined that the short-term bullish trend has officially begun. This sudden surge is likely related to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision to be announced the following day. On a technical level, MACD continues to show an increasing trend, with the DIF and DEA forming a golden cross resonance; the price stabilizes above the upper Bollinger Band at $92,900 and is diverging upwards, indicating a clear strong bullish pattern. In terms of operations, it is advised for holders to continue holding; investors with heavier positions can take partial profits in batches without needing to liquidate all at once.

#BTC走势分析

Ethereum: Strong attack on the previous high resistance failed, has the southward pullback become a foregone conclusion?

As of 5:35 AM Beijing time, Ethereum is priced around 3145. The first target we anchored for the northbound has accurately reached 3170, and the resistance shows strong performance. For the long positions laid out at the 2950 level, profits can be decisively taken at the 3170 mark. Although a space of 220 points was gained, the profit margin is limited, and the bullish indicator status on the daily level is not optimistic. After encountering resistance at the 3170 level, the main funds have not been able to achieve effective breakthroughs; if a solid K-line pattern can be formed at the resistance level, this round of northbound market can still be held, while the current optimal strategy is to exit first and observe, waiting for effective break signals at resistance or support levels before deciding when to enter.

From the daily K-line trend, the price peaked at 3180 before the article was published and dipped to 3038. The EMA trend indicator continues to contract upwards, with the K-line standing firm on the EMA15 trend line 3050 for three consecutive days before launching an attack, clearly building momentum to challenge the 3170 resistance level. Whether it can break through the previous high resistance in one go still requires time to verify: an effective breakthrough will lead to following up with long positions and continuing the northbound market; if the breakthrough fails, the market will likely turn south. The MACD indicator shows an increase in volume, with the DIF and DEA dual lines expanding upwards, indicating that bullish momentum remains; the Bollinger Bands are contracting simultaneously, with the upper pressure level at 3215, the lower support level looking at 2735, and the middle track running at around 2980.

On the four-hour level, the bullish performance is relatively strong, with the K-line repeatedly testing below the 3170 resistance level. The MACD indicator has been continuously increasing in volume, with the DIF and DEA forming a golden cross pattern, maintaining an overall bullish trend. The Bollinger Bands' upper and lower tracks are contracting simultaneously, with the upper pressure level at 3154 having been tested multiple times before breaking, while the lower support level at 2980 remains relatively solid, with bulls slightly in the lead in the long-short contest. The core strategy is still to wait for confirmation of directional signals, and after the breakout pattern is clear, then decide when to enter the market.
#ETH走势分析

Bitcoin breaks the position to find an opportunity to enter the market, which is the way to victory.

Yesterday's practical record has been synchronized. After clearing the position, the market has not yet shown ideal trend entry signals. During this period, one must patiently wait for clear opportunities and signals, quietly waiting for the best entry point to appear. Remember to plan your trades, trade your plans, and ensure that there is no deviation in trade execution. Congratulations to everyone for successfully achieving the goal of doubling your investment!

As of 5:30 AM Beijing time, the current price of Bitcoin is around 901100. Yesterday's market saw a wave of intraday upward movement, with prices climbing from the 89000 line to 92000. Although the increase was limited, it still completed a phase of rebound. This is a clearly characterized false short squeeze market, which experienced investors in the cryptocurrency space are likely to identify accurately. The current market is oscillating near the 90,000 mark, and there are significant operational risks whether it breaks down or breaks up from this level. It is recommended to wait for clear market direction before making any moves.

From the daily candlestick perspective, before the publication, the price reached a maximum of 92260 and a minimum of 89550. Trend indicators continue to contract, with the fast and slow lines gradually converging, indicating that the market will enter a stage of convergence and consolidation, with the consolidation period expected to last at least a week. The upper resistance to watch is the EMA30 trend line at 93300, while the lower support looks towards the golden ratio level of 85500. The MACD indicator has been continuously increasing but remains at a neutral state, with the DIF and DEA lines expanding upwards, yet still some distance from the zero axis. Overall, the market presents a horizontal contraction pattern after a bottom divergence, with the Bollinger Bands also closing, the upper pressure level at 94050 and the lower support level at 84500, while the current candlestick is running above the middle track of the Bollinger Band at 89300, indicating that the main funds are still brewing directional choices.

The horizontal characteristics of the four-hour level trend are more pronounced. The EMA series trend indicators are also in a contracting state, with the EMA120 forming a short-term pressure level at 91450 and the EMA15 below providing support at 90460. MACD's volume release is weak, with the DIF and DEA lines running horizontally near the zero axis, and the Bollinger Bands are also closing, with the upper pressure at 91640 and the lower support at 88400. To grasp the entry opportunity at the minimal trading cost, the optimal strategy is to decisively act after the pressure or support level effectively breaks, and it is currently recommended to remain on the sidelines.

#BTC走势分析

Who doesn't want to have the joy of flipping warehouses?

#加密市场观察

The market is too boring, let's make a prediction:
94K is the highest point of this round of rebound, then it goes to 75K
then there will be an extraordinary rebound, going to 98K+
then the C wave will start to decline to 65K,
In the second half of 2026, there will be a super rebound to 110K+
---

#BTC走势分析

Ethereum's 3000 threshold sees fierce battles between bulls and bears: will the southward trend continue or will there be a counterattack from the north?

The current price of Ethereum is 3019 (Beijing time 04:50). It was previously indicated that 'after the main force's attempt to break 3200 met strong resistance, there would not be a continuation of the attack in the short term, but rather a deep pullback,' and a suggestion to take profits at 3170 across the network was given—ultimately selling precisely at the peak and also positioning at the low of 2750, achieving a perfect closure of this northward wave segment, which can be regarded as a textbook-level grasp of rhythm. The current market is intensely focused around the 3000 threshold, making the directional choice critical.

From the daily K-line perspective, before the publication, the highest was 3192 and the lowest was 2978, having fallen below the EMA15 trend line support of 3036; the golden ratio 0.5 position above coincides with the EMA30 resistance level, forming a strong double pressure with significant effect. In terms of indicators, MACD has not increased in volume, bearish momentum is strengthening, and DIF and DEA are contracting at low levels; the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, with the upper band moving down to 3218, the lower band to 2735, and the middle band at 2976 precisely coinciding with the intraday low, providing effective short-term support. If the middle band is subsequently broken, the main force is likely to continue southward, further exploring the downside space.

The four-hour cycle signals are more focused on the 3000 threshold: this price level not only has obvious price support, but the EMA trend indicator also forms strong support here, becoming the core of the current struggle between bulls and bears. On the indicator level, MACD shows a reduced volume increase, with DIF and DEA forming a death cross at high levels, indicating a short-term advantage for the southward trend; the lower Bollinger Band at 2972 provides effective support and can serve as a key reference point: if broken, then increase positions southward; if support holds, a light position can be tried northward. The core entry point for conservative investors going north can still be locked at the effective low of 2750.

#ETH走势分析

The three black crows pattern of Bitcoin has formed. After the bearish trend is established, where are the targets below?

Bitcoin has risen from 85000 to 93000, exiting precisely; the second Bitcoin surged from 2750 to 3170, locking in profits—this operation can be described as extremely precise. The rhythm of highs and lows has switched perfectly. Currently, the high position is held in the southward segment, and the details of the subsequent exit will continue to be privately synchronized with partners following the real market.

The current Bitcoin price is 89200 (Beijing time 04:50). The recommendation to take profit at 93500 across the network should be verified again: the market has broken below the critical threshold of 90000, and the exit timing is textbook-level. The previous plan clearly stated, "Once the 90000 level is broken, follow the trend southward." Currently, a short-term position can be taken with a light load, while avoiding long holding. The core idea is still to wait for stabilization at lower levels before laying out a northern trend position.

On the daily K-line dimension, before the release, the highest was 92670, and the lowest was 87975. Although there is a possibility of a "door painting" pattern, the probability is low. After breaking below 90000, the low positions all represent opportunities for northern layout: the EMA indicator continues to contract, EMA15 is consolidating around 91000; MACD continues to expand upward, and the Bollinger Bands are synchronously narrowing, indicating a demand for a pullback to explore upwards. The previous K-line failed to hit the upper track of 95000 and fell back, while the lower track was compressed to 84000, with severe fluctuations in the range; do not blindly open positions.

The signal on the four-hour cycle is clearer: there is short-term support at 89000, but the EMA contraction continues, MACD is reducing volume while accumulating, and DIF and DEA have a dead cross at a high position and are expanding; the K-line has broken below the lower Bollinger Band at the 90000 level, combined with the short-term TD nine-reverse indicator being triggered and the lower Bollinger Band support failing, the four-hour level three black crows pattern has formed, and the bearish trend is established. In terms of strategy, the southward segment can continue to hold, while the northern trend position should wait for this adjustment to end before planning the layout.
#BTC走势分析

This wave of market activity isn't over yet... It seems we are about to welcome a beautiful red weekend. Don't think this trend can finish in just one day... Don't be too naive!

#BTC走势分析

Since ETH clearly turned bullish on November 22, it has reached a maximum increase of over 19%. It has started to pull back now; can it rise further?

As shown in Figure 1, the rise of ETH starting from 2716 has two possible scenarios represented in red and blue. The red level is smaller and is a rebound from a previous decline, while the blue level is larger and represents the daily level, targeting the entire decline that started from 4956.

I have repeatedly emphasized the importance of the key pivot point shown between 3120-3150. For this round of ETH's rise to expand to a daily level, it is crucial to remain above that range; otherwise, the first phase of the rise may end, and subsequent adjustments could evolve into a new decline (however, even if it follows the red scenario, the new decline would mean that after finding the bottom, there will be a daily level rebound, so it's not entirely a bad thing).

Pay attention to the recent Gann time on December 8, as there may be a turning point that will help us determine the current level of the market and the subsequent trend. Further dates are in mid-December and early January; I will announce the exact timing once the market structure becomes clearer.
#ETH走势分析

Ethereum is about to reach resistance levels, and the overall reversal pattern is positive.

#ETH走势分析

Bitcoin is under pressure at the 94,000 mark, with a perfect conclusion to the 85,000-94,000 range. The opportunity for a low buy on the pullback is on the way.

Enter at 85,000, take profit at 93,500; enter at 2,740, exit at 3,170. The practical trading record has been synchronized with my social circle for reference to review trading models and rhythms. The next entry point will be updated after the next pullback stabilizes; currently, I am on standby with no positions.

1. Market Conclusion and Core Logic

• Current price 91,900 (Beijing time 03:10), 94,200 has not been effectively broken. It was clearly stated yesterday: if 94,200 does not break, exit the range at a profit. The "turnaround" from 85,000 to 94,000 has officially concluded.

• Core judgment: Insufficient main force chips, short-term entry into a pullback accumulation cycle. No need to regret missing this round; the next low buy opportunity is unfolding alongside the pullback.

2. Key Technical Analysis

• Daily K-line (before press time)

◦ Range: Highest 94,040, Lowest 91,700

◦ Support: EMA15 short-term support 91,200, Bollinger Band middle track 90,000

◦ Resistance: 0.618 Fibonacci level 94,200 (strong resistance), Bollinger Band upper track 96,150

◦ Indicators: MACD volume rising, DIF, DEA expanding upwards below the 0 axis; K-line is consolidating in the upward channel of the Bollinger Band. Short-term consolidation is the main focus; breaking strong resistance will take time.

• Four-hour K-line

◦ Risk Warning: There is a secondary risk of a "drawbridge," the impact on speculators will intensify.

◦ Key levels: Trend top 92,000 (current K-line stabilizing), bottom 90,500; Bollinger Band middle track 90,650, lower track 84,500

◦ Indicators: MACD volume weakening, DIF, DEA contracting, short-term pullback is a normal demand.

◦ Strategy: Focus on low buys, do not short for now; reference stop-loss at 90,000; if it does not break, the low buy strategy remains unchanged.

3. Operational Strategy

1. The 85,000-94,000 range profit-taking has been completed, currently waiting with no positions.

2. Pay attention to pullback support: 91,200→90,000→90,500/90,650

3. Entry signal: Stabilize after pulling back to the support range, and the 90,000 mark must not be broken.

4. Stop-loss reference: 90,000; target first looks at 94,200, break through and then look at 96,150

#BTC走势分析

Ethereum's Dual Resistance Levels: Can It Block the Northward Momentum?

Current price of Ethereum is 3,147, as of 05:45 Beijing time. The market has been volatile, and the 0.618 level northward has given about 400 points of space; how much have you grasped?

1. Core Strategy and Position Guidance

• Yesterday it was suggested: take partial profits near 2,900, reduce further at 3,030; keep a close watch on the remaining position at the dual resistance level of 3,170.

• If 3,170 cannot be突破: fully take profits on the northward position; if it breaks through successfully: continue to take profits in batches while retaining the core holding.

2. Daily Technical Situation: Challenging the Dual Resistance

• The daily candlestick broke the previous high of 3,100 before publication, reaching a maximum of 3,158 and a minimum of 2,980, currently challenging 3,170 (the golden ratio 0.5 + EMA30 dual resistance overlap).

• MACD: Continuous volume increase; KDJ: the death cross quickly turns into a golden cross and expands upwards; Bollinger Bands: upper resistance at 3,222, middle support at 2,980.

• The market is difficult to walk in one direction, friends who missed this round need not rush, wait for the next wave of pullback to reposition.

3. Four-hour Technical Situation: Divergence Apparent, Limited Pullback

• The head and shoulders bottom pattern has been completed, with the candlestick hovering at the resistance line of the rising trend at 3,100.

• Short-term support: EMA120 (3,050); resistance remains at 3,170.

• MACD volume weakening, candlestick diverging upwards; KDJ contracting, with a short-term need for a pullback, but the space is not large.

• Bollinger Bands: upper band at 3,195, middle band at 2,940. The northward entry area is clear, and execution can be carried out according to the points mentioned above.

#ETH走势分析 $ETH