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Did you wake up this morning to find your ETH position gone? Are you starting to play ambush now? It's early in the morning, a time when people in the country are feeling sleepy and starting to make moves. Both longs and shorts have been liquidated, so He Yue should avoid holding positions overnight and operate cautiously. Recently, the bears have been slightly restrained, and the short-term strategy can focus more on low buys.

#ETH

At 3 AM (Beijing time on December 11), the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. Currently, the market is almost entirely betting on a 25 basis point rate cut.

This time, the inflation data seems to have come down, and the employment data has recently started to show signs of weakness. The current state feels a bit like being roasted over a fire.

Actually, it's tough for Powell too. If he cuts rates, he's afraid inflation will rebound; if he doesn't cut, what if employment really collapses? He would bear the brunt of that. Within the committee, there are clearly two factions: the doves are fixated on the unemployment rate, while the hawks insist on sticking to the CPI, believing that even a drop to 3% isn't safe enough. Ultimately, it's often those few “swing votes” in the middle that determine the outcome.

From the market perspective, the recent rally in US stocks and BTC is essentially trading on “rate cut expectations.” US Treasury yields have fallen back to around 4%, as if to say, I’m already lying flat, do as you please.

But the real drama lies in the details after the announcement:

1. A 25 basis point cut: High probability this will lead to “good news priced in,” spiking initially, then getting hammered, watch for an inertia-driven pullback.

2. No rate cut (low probability but severe): If they really hold steady, BTC could instantly drop one or two thousand dollars as if playing around.

3. Rate cut but with hawkish remarks: That would be even crazier, giving candy while raising a slap, the volatility would be enough to make people tremble.

Advice: Don’t heavily bet on direction at such a juncture; it’s best to participate lightly and wait for the main event until market sentiment stabilizes. The more attention this moment receives, the more likely it is to go the opposite way. Keeping your position steady is more important than anything else.
#美联储重启降息步伐

Some people say Ethereum will rise to $62,000, brothers, are we going for it? #ETH

ETH rebounded to 2983 in the early hours, and is still stable above 3000. Structurally, the 4-hour trend has improved, breaking the descending trend on the daily level, and after stabilizing, there is hope for further upward movement. Currently, it is still in the repair stage.

Several key positions:
The 4-hour level has not yet broken through the box, and the 3100-3150 area has become a key zone for the conversion of bulls and bears. Only by standing firm here can there be opportunities for further upward testing.

The 2900-2950 support zone is still valid, but the space is limited. If a slight decline signal appears near the lower track at 2970 after a pullback, it can be reconsidered for re-entry. In the short to medium term, low long opportunities can still be sought. Before and after the Fed's interest rate cut, pay attention to taking profit on highs during the upward movement.

For a real pattern to emerge, a volume breakout above 3150 is needed; only then will new upward space truly open up. Currently, the rebound is not damaged, but until the key pressure is broken, it remains in a volatile rhythm, holding support and waiting for a breakthrough while maintaining patience.

#ETH

Speak an amazing truth, altcoins will belong to the hunting ground in 2025

"The market lacks liquidity" is probably the most heard phrase, everyone says liquidity determines the size of the market, and there is no problem in understanding it this way. However, from another perspective,

The project has no innovation, the same narrative just wrapped in a new skin, from the metaverse to RWA to AI, even the project team doesn't believe it anymore, so how can you expect retail investors to take over?

The team hasn't landed, the community hasn't been built, and they come to the market with a market value of tens of billions, clearly telling you, "I came to cash out at the opening."

As a result, funds dare only to cling to the top, 90% of altcoins have become "zombie coins", and when the project team tries to pump a little, it gets dumped, so they simply lie flat, and new coins go online and immediately drop in price, lacking even the patience to draw charts.

In the past it was "hold and get rich", now it's "run slowly and get buried", the rhythm has changed to: quick in, quick out, cut losses hard, a rebound without escaping at the top, the next opportunity to break even might take another round of bull and bear.

Currently, either you have insider information and run faster than the project team, or you only play the most certain leaders, don't ask "which hundred times", first ask yourself: "How many people have run from this position, am I the last batch? The altcoin battlefield of 2025 is a hunting ground for professional hunters, not a playground for retail investors.

#加密市场观察 #美联储重启降息步伐

Is 'ETH stabilizing at 3000' a bull market trap or a genuine reversal trend?

Eth reached a high of 3200 yesterday and pulled back without breaking the key level of 3000. Currently, it can be viewed as a test of support after a breakthrough. Whether it can stabilize at 3000 in the next two days will determine if this breakthrough is a 'real start' or a 'false breakout'.

Several key signals:

Significant volume during the breakout, reduced volume during the pullback.

The daily high and low points are gradually rising.

The bullish structure is currently intact, with no significant signs of large sell-offs.

This wave can be seen as a new driving force after three months of consolidation.

Bull vs. Bear viewpoints:

Bullish perspective: The trend has turned into a healthy upward movement, with pullbacks being opportunities; the next target is 3500-3800.

Bearish warning: This is still a 'bear market rebound'; after inducing bullish sentiment, a deeper pullback is inevitable. If you don't exit, you will get trapped.

Key question:

Is it currently a bear market rebound or the start of a new upward trend?

This essentially depends on your judgment of the cycle position; there is no standard answer, only probabilities and choices.

Operational thought:

If it stabilizes at 3000 and shows increased volume upwards, it can be seen as a right-side confirmation.

If it breaks below 2950 with increased volume, be cautious of false breakout risks.

In summary: The market will not tell you the correct answer, but price and volume will give you a probabilistic advantage. If you think it's a bear market, exit; if you believe it's a bull market, add positions. Personally, I lean towards the latter.

#ETH

The downtrend line of the Ethereum to Bitcoin exchange rate (ETH/BTC) is about to break, ETFs are starting to net inflow into Ethereum, and whale institutions continue to increase their holdings of Ethereum. The subsequent market trend is likely to be led by Ethereum #ETH .

Triple favorable resonance! Is a major turning point in the crypto market approaching?

Today's information volume is simply explosive! Three unprecedented strong catalysts have simultaneously arrived on the battlefield, and the market sentiment and underlying logic are undergoing fundamental changes. This could very well be the starting gun for a new cycle.

1. Epic technical upgrades: The Ethereum Fusaka upgrade has been successfully activated, and the core weapon EIP-7918 has begun to operate. From now on, all Layer 2 transactions must pay fees to the Ethereum mainnet and burn ETH.

This means the more prosperous L2 becomes, the faster ETH is burned. The previous situation of "Ethereum ecosystem flourishing = L2 eats meat, mainnet drinks soup" has been completely broken. The monetary properties of ETH have received a qualitative enhancement, transitioning from "potential deflation" to a path of mechanical deflation has been fully opened, and the historic transformation of the supply and demand structure is happening right now.

2. Major policy shift signals: Former SEC Chairman Paul Atkins publicly revealed that the Bitcoin market structure bill is about to be passed. Although he has currently left office, his profound regulatory background and insights suggest that this statement is by no means baseless. This clearly points to the key obstacles for the mainstream U.S. financial system to accept cryptocurrencies being rapidly dismantled, with compliance doors being further opened and the infrastructure for massive traditional capital entering the market is accelerating.

3. Strongest macro support: According to the latest CME FedWatch data, the market's bet on the probability of the Federal Reserve soon lowering interest rates has skyrocketed to 86%-90%! The anchor of global asset pricing is about to shift to easing, which is undoubtedly an epic positive for all risk assets, especially for Bitcoin, which has both "emerging technology + anti-inflation" attributes.

The market always starts in doubt and ends in celebration. The solid underlying logic driven by these three factors is rare in recent years. It's time to reassess your positions, folks, something big is coming!!!

#ETH #美联储重启降息步伐

Ethereum has finally launched an independent market, exhibiting a rare strong performance recently. Last night, the market first experienced a deep pullback, with Ethereum's retracement clearly weak, only briefly touching the 3030 line before finding support. Overall downward momentum is significantly lacking.

As midnight approached, the rebound quickly started, with Ethereum showing a small one-sided upward trend, peaking at 3240 USD, significantly outperforming Bitcoin.

Although Ethereum showed strong performance at one point, the upward momentum has weakened as it approaches the previous resistance zone. During the day, attention is on the 3050-3080 support level, maintaining a strong bullish outlook above. If it breaks down, it may pull back to around 3000/2900 before rising again. If it breaks through the 3200/3250 resistance, it will challenge 3400.
#ETH #加密市场观察

FIR volume has surged in Binance Alpha, and FIR has collaborated deeply with several Hong Kong stars. Kay Tse's August release "City Light Chasing Dreams" was co-created by global users and sung by her, climbing to the top of the Tencent Music Hong Kong charts. Copyright revenue is directly injected into the staking pool, and holding the currency can yield dividends.

Kwan Chung initiated the AI Rock Challenge, with selected works being covered and released as NFTs by him. The highest demo has sold for 200 U each.

Linda Wong's "Time Trilogy" AI love song has been crazily remixed by fans, and rare NFTs sold out instantly. Stephen Chow's classic IP is open for adaptation, with user-generated funny remixes minting tens of thousands of NFTs, maximizing meme attributes.

Currently, the platform has over 16 million daily active users, with over 200,000 user-generated songs and about 2,000 new songs added daily, also supporting "listen to earn coins." However, FIR's market value is only a few million dollars—there's a severe mismatch between ecological data and market value.

Music copyright revenue + celebrity IP + NFi + user-generated economy, FIR has built a complete value cycle. Light market cap, solid ecology, and explosive potential should not be underestimated.

#FIR #AIMUSIC

The sharp decline and consolidation over the past two weeks are paving the way for a new round of market trends. Market sentiment, institutional movements, and the regulatory environment are resonating together, and the current core driving force has become clear.

Policy expectations are shifting: The leadership change at the Federal Reserve is imminent, with potential candidates from within the circle leaning towards interest rate cuts and friendly policies, and market confidence in easing is rapidly increasing.

Liquidity is bottoming out: QT has paused, and although QE has not been restarted, the tightest phase has passed. The Treasury has recently injected tens of billions into banks, enough to cushion external tightening pressures.

An innovation exemption is approaching: The SEC will introduce a cryptocurrency innovation exemption policy in the next 1-2 months. Compliance projects and financing activities are expected to accelerate, not only supporting BTC/ETH but also possibly igniting a wave of quality altcoin trends.

Institutional entry is accelerating: Traditional giants like the Vanguard Group have opened Bitcoin ETF trading, and several banks are recommending an allocation of 1%-4% in crypto assets. It is only a matter of time before more "behemoth" institutions follow suit.

This round of market trends is likely to be driven by "compliance innovation," forming a pattern where mainstream coins provide the platform and altcoins lead the surge. In December, a breakthrough is imminent, and the market is brewing; good times may be delayed, but they will surely come.
#CryptoCircle# #Blockchain#

Sol accidentally got it right again. Recently, luck has been a factor, and Sol has made profits from two short-term trades.

In this stage of taking risks, we lower our expectations. If each trade can make a profit of dozens of points, we should be exceeding 70% of the people in the current market, right? I don't think anyone would refute this.

The market has always been there, and opportunities have always been there. It's up to you whether you can grasp the opportunities and trends!!!

#sol

Alpha FIR has been quite active these past few days, and today I dug into the project background:

Industry: AI + Music, this is one of the narratives currently attracting the most capital attention. FIR has already established a leading position in this vertical field.

The partners include Nobody, who has issued Stephen Chow NFTs, and music projects that collaborate with stars like Kay Tse. This means it has strong IP resources and the ability to break out of niche markets, not just pure speculation.

If it were just a concept coin, it might end quickly with a one-time flow, but FIR has real projects behind it, star resources, and actual collaborations, providing it with long-term support and narrative space.

Recently, the trading volume has significantly increased, and the price shows a phased bottom structure, which usually indicates that there are funds paying attention and positioning.

If contracts can be launched in the future, liquidity and volatility will increase significantly, making it a key target to watch.
#FIR

Brothers, keep an eye on SOL's market, a phase bottom is forming, and there should be no fear at the moment. Although short-term bears still dominate, the market needs time to grind, but key signals have already appeared.

The strength of this decline has clearly weakened, showing multiple resistances where it can't drop further. This is a typical 'bottoming signal'. My personal judgment is that the big direction for this month will be 'pullback - accumulation - rebound'.

Market suggestions:

1. Cautious shorts: Even if the market experiences extreme volatility and hits a new low, the possibility of a trap for shorts is very high. Chasing shorts may lead to being caught before dawn. The current fluctuations can be understood as the short-selling forces taking profits while new bullish forces accumulate quietly. This is a process of transitioning between old and new momentum.

2. For spot traders, the current range is a good time to build positions in batches. Don't always think about buying at the lowest point; instead, accumulate in batches within this bottom area, range position 115-125.

Those with positions can start planning for additional purchases in the current area, while those with no positions can establish a small bottom position in batches.

Remember, markets are always born out of despair. The colder the market sentiment, the more we need to stay clear-headed, prepare well, and wait for the wind to come.
#sol #加密市场回调

The market is in such a bad state that I can only afford crabs like this. The crypto community has a different kind of hardship #加密市场回调

SOL is currently around $126. From a technical structure perspective, bulls have failed to establish effective support, and the overall bearish trend has not yet reversed.

The $130 level is a key resistance level, and as long as the price has not confirmed it can hold above this position, any approach to this area can be considered a reference for gradually positioning for a bearish stance.

Regarding spot positioning, it was discussed last week that around $125 is a potential entry point. For conservative players, it may be advisable to lower the positioning range to between $112 and $120 to seek a higher safety level. All operations should be conducted with strict position management and risk control. The operational strategy remains focused on short-term trades. The last entry was at the $125 position, and the repeated failure to break through the $144 position also indicated an exit, capturing a short-term swing.

#solana

Data for this week:

Tuesday 9:00 Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak at a memorial event.

Tuesday 23:00 Federal Reserve Governor Bowman will testify before a House committee.

Wednesday 21:15 U.S. November ADP employment numbers (10,000s).

Thursday 21:30 U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending November 29 (10,000s).

Friday 23:00 U.S. September core PCE price index year-on-year.

Friday 23:00 U.S. December one-year inflation expectations preliminary.

Friday 23:00 U.S. December University of Michigan consumer sentiment index preliminary.

Comments from Federal Reserve officials, especially public statements from Chairman Powell, directly shape market expectations regarding the path of monetary policy. If the stance leans dovish, it will strengthen expectations of maintaining or shifting towards easier liquidity, usually benefiting risk assets like Bitcoin. If it leans hawkish, it will tighten expectations, creating short-term pressure.

ADP employment and initial jobless claims, as high-frequency labor data, reflect economic resilience in real time. Strong data may reinforce the Federal Reserve's stance to maintain high interest rates, suppressing market sentiment. If the data shows significant weakness, it could quickly elevate expectations for rate cuts, often providing upward momentum for crypto assets.

The core PCE price index, as the Federal Reserve's most valued inflation indicator, is a key determinant in policy-making. A number higher than expected will strengthen the narrative of "higher rates for longer," suppressing risk appetite, while meeting or falling below expectations can alleviate tightening concerns, usually supporting asset prices.

Data changes - adjusting Federal Reserve policy expectations - impacting global dollar liquidity outlook - reshaping the valuation logic of global risk assets, including crypto assets.

For retail investors, it is crucial to closely monitor candlestick patterns, macro information, and market sentiment to adjust their strategies, making more rigorous decisions in position management and cycle layout. #美联储重启降息步伐 #加密市场反弹

MicroStrategy's stock has fallen quite harshly in the past six months, with its price already halved. Will it be unable to hold on and face liquidation? If that really happens, will it trigger a chain reaction of explosions?

MicroStrategy's CEO Phong Le (the company's Executive Chairman is Michael Saylor) recently stated quite frankly in an interview that unless the company's stock price falls below its net asset value and they cannot obtain new funding at all, they will not consider selling Bitcoin.

In other words, if MicroStrategy's price-to-net asset ratio (or mNAV) falls below 1 and all financing channels are cut off, then from a financial perspective, selling Bitcoin to protect earnings per share would seem reasonable, especially since there may already be losses on the books at that time.

However, he also emphasized that this is absolutely the last resort and not a shift in company strategy. MicroStrategy has never wanted to become a company that survives by selling Bitcoin; it's just that when market sentiment is particularly poor, financial discipline must come first, and they cannot rely solely on emotions.

MicroStrategy has endured this long in the cryptocurrency space and indeed has its own coping logic. Simply put, their bottom line is that as long as the mNAV does not fall below 1 and they can still borrow money, they will not touch Bitcoin.

So how is the price-to-net asset ratio calculated?

According to the data publicly disclosed by MicroStrategy, they currently hold approximately 649,000 Bitcoins, valued at around $59.2 billion at market price. Although the average cost is $74,000, the current Bitcoin price is even higher, so there is still a profit on the books. The estimated mNAV is around 1.13, which means the stock price is still above the net asset value per share

#加密市场反弹

The crypto market's "black opening" in December raises questions of whether it is a crisis or an opportunity? On the first day of December 2025, the cryptocurrency market delivered a harsh reality check to investors.

Bitcoin fell again below the $90,000 mark, dipping to around $86,000, while Ethereum also lost the critical psychological level of $3,000, plunging to around $2,800. Such a bleak start has driven market sentiment to a freezing point.

The daily level still requires adjustment, with expectations for a rate cut in December resuming, which may lead to further cuts. Attention should be paid to the fundamental situation. The weekly trend remains relatively healthy. For what lies ahead, it is essential to closely follow the Federal Reserve's policy direction, wait for a pullback to rise, and maintain enough ammunition for a charge.
#加密市场反弹