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BTC is testing the 200-week moving average, and this weekend’s weekly close is crucial

Bitcoin briefly fell to around $67,000 today. According to BeInCrypto data, the price landed right around the 200-week simple moving average (approximately $67,922). In July this year, the same average caught a pullback, before the rally in August. So many people are watching to see whether it holds this time.

Here are a few key dates to keep an eye on:

1. This Sunday’s weekly close
If the weekly candle closes below the 200-week moving average, analysts see the next reference range at $66,000–$67,000, followed by around $62,300, a level that held twice this year.

2. November 30: MSCI index adjustment
MSCI will remove Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, from relevant indexes. Portfolio rebalancing by passive funds could bring additional volatility.

3. December 9: Fed rate decision
U.S. PPI was up 6.5% year over year in October, and market bets on a rate hike in December have risen above 80%. Macroeconomic pressures have yet to ease.

In addition, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows for six consecutive trading days through November 12, totaling approximately $1.7 billion.

My take is that we’re now more in a “wait for events to unfold” phase, where technical levels and the macro calendar matter more than the news flow.

Do you think the 200-week moving average will hold this time?

#比特币 #BTC #200周均线 #美联储 #MarketAnalysis

AI giants are lining up to go public. Is Bitcoin’s money being “drained” away?

There’s an interesting theory making the rounds these past couple of days: Bitcoin’s weakness may have something to do with U.S. IPOs competing for capital.

First, the facts. BTC fell to around $67,500 this week, its lowest level since August, while the Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to 20, indicating extreme fear. Meanwhile, Anthropic is preparing for an IPO and reportedly plans to raise up to about $64.4 billion, with subscriptions at roughly six times the amount on offer.

In an interview, the CEO of Xapo Bank suggested that investors looking to secure IPO allocations may first sell liquid assets like Bitcoin to free up cash. He compared it to the period before SpaceX’s IPO this June, when Bitcoin also weakened. Strive’s CEO offered a similar comparison: BTC fell about 19% in the 50 days before SpaceX’s IPO, and has fallen about 18% over a similar period ahead of Anthropic’s IPO.

My take is that this logic can explain some of the weakness, but not all of it. Rising expectations of a Fed rate hike in December, consecutive outflows from spot ETFs, and weakness in U.S. tech stocks are also weighing on the market. Attributing the entire decline to an “IPO cash drain” is an oversimplification.

Still, it’s a reminder of one thing: The crypto market is becoming increasingly intertwined with traditional capital markets, so keeping an eye on the flow of funds in U.S. stocks is important when following crypto, too.

Do you think major IPOs really divert capital from crypto, or is this just an explanation people reach for when prices fall?

#比特币 #BTC #Anthropic #美股IPO #MarketSentiment

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#termmax Recently I’ve been following @TermMax and this project. It feels quite interesting in how it combines fixed income with DeFi. Through flexible maturity management and risk control, it offers everyday users more stable yield options while maintaining on-chain transparency. Personally, I think a direction that focuses on real needs has more long-term value than pure speculation. I’ll keep watching for further progress—feel free to discuss it with me too.

What’s going on if the Bitway staking promotion expires and you can’t redeem?

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