奎哥的加密日记

On the journey of investing in digital currencies, I started as a small individual with only 5,000 yuan and gradually fought my way to become a middle-class individual with 25 million in assets.
Today, I willingly share the valuable experiences from this journey selflessly with every like-minded friend.
Navigating the ocean of digital currencies, the art of capital management is crucial. I tend to divide my capital into five parts, using only one part for trading each time, so even when facing storms, the ship remains stable. I set a strict rule for myself: if losses reach 10%, I immediately withdraw, regardless of how turbulent the external conditions are. Even if I face five consecutive small setbacks, my losses are limited to half of the capital, while if I catch a wave of profit, the gains will far exceed that. Even if occasionally trapped temporarily by the market, I can remain calm and collected.

1. Capital management: When funds are limited, every penny must be spent wisely. The cryptocurrency market is unpredictable, with few opportunities for significant gains in a year; accurately seizing one can greatly increase assets. So don't impulsively go all in; the market can experience black swan events at any time. Keep some capital in reserve, like buying insurance for your investments. In case of policy changes, market panic, or other unexpected situations, having capital allows you to average down costs or seize new opportunities at lower prices.
2. Enhance understanding: In the cryptocurrency market, returns are closely linked to understanding; high understanding can lead to high returns. Simulated trading can help you familiarize yourself with market rules and processes in a risk-free environment, but when trading with real money, the psychological pressure and challenges from gains and losses are greater. Only by continually summarizing in practice can you improve your understanding and grasp of the market.

When Buffett became a 'leek' in the crypto circle.
It was a dark and windy night when Bitcoin suddenly plummeted by 30%, and the crypto circle was filled with wails.
I curled up in bed scrolling on my phone, seeing someone in the group crying out: "It's over, it's over, it's gone to zero, the wind on the rooftop is so cold!"
At this moment, a message suddenly popped up - "Buffett has heavily invested in Bitcoin."
I shook in surprise and rubbed my eyes: "What? That old man who said 'Bitcoin is rat poison'?"
After refreshing, the news changed to: "Buffett clarified: Account was hacked, I still only love Coca-Cola."

Earlier this week, Bitcoin's price surged significantly to a local high of $122,000 and then entered a consolidation phase. As of the writing of this article, the trading price is close to $117,300. Despite...
Earlier this week, Bitcoin's price surged to a local high of $122,000, followed by a consolidation phase. As of the writing of this article, Bitcoin is trading close to $117,300. Although the overall trend remains bullish, short-term technical indicators show signs of price fatigue. Bulls must hold the $115,000-
$116,000 area to avoid deeper pullbacks.

To talk about my connection with the crypto world, it all started with a chance conversation over ten years ago. That day, I met an old classmate I hadn't seen in a long time. He excitedly shared his 'legendary achievements' in the crypto world, talking about how his assets doubled in just a few months, allowing him to realize his small goal of buying a car. I felt a stir of excitement in my heart. At that time, I was troubled by the monotony of my job and the meagerness of my salary; financial freedom seemed like an unattainable dream. My old classmate's story was like a ray of light shining into my dull life, filling me with curiosity and longing for the crypto world. After returning home, I eagerly began searching online for various information about digital currencies, from the background of Bitcoin's birth to Ethereum's smart contracts. The more I read, the more I felt that this emerging field was full of infinite possibilities. Driven by my inner desire, I took out my long-saved 50,000 yuan in savings and dove headfirst into the crypto world. At that time, I was like a new soldier entering the battlefield, completely unaware of the challenges and risks that lay ahead, my heart filled only with a thirst for wealth. In those years, I chased after coins. When I first entered the crypto world, I was like a headless fly, completely unsure where to start. Watching the prices of various digital currencies fluctuate on the screen, I felt both excited and confused. At first, I was just following the trend, buying a bit of whatever coin others said had potential. I remember my first purchase was Bitcoin. At that time, Bitcoin's price had already risen quite a bit, but I thought, as the leader of digital currencies, it would surely continue to rise. To my surprise, not long after buying in, the price began to fall. Watching the numbers in my account shrink, I felt terrible. Later, I started to research various digital currencies on my own. During my research, I learned that Ethereum's smart contract technology had great prospects, allowing developers to create various decentralized applications on the blockchain. So, I decisively invested a portion of my funds to buy Ethereum. This time, my luck was good; Ethereum's price continued to rise for a while, and I successfully made a profit. After tasting success, I became bolder and started to pay attention to some niche coins. Once, on a crypto forum, I saw someone strongly recommending a newly issued digital currency, claiming it had unique technology and vast application scenarios, with unlimited future potential. I was swept away by these descriptions and, without conducting thorough research, invested most of my funds. As a result, it turned out to be a complete scam; the price of this coin surged briefly before plummeting, nearly to zero, and my money was lost.

Topping and bottoming is something that most beginners strive for in trading, as it is both stimulating and can open a mode of earning passively! Their psychological activity during trading usually goes like this:
When the price reaches a certain position, it is said: it's definitely going to reverse!
When you see the price drop or rise rapidly, as long as you see the trend pause slightly, immediately reverse your position, firmly believe that you have topped and bottomed, and say: I don't believe it will keep rising/falling!
If the trend continues, one will continue to add positions, thinking: whatever, I will enter the last order and close the computer! After that, it usually doesn't end well.

Information is particularly important in the cryptocurrency space. Many people rely on the information provided by the majority, as the saying goes, 'the eyes of the masses are sharp.' However, they do not realize that the information known by the masses is already outdated.
The most cutting-edge information is generally unknown to the public. We can think about it: can information known to the public be regarded as cutting-edge? It is merely promotional information meant to entice you into investing.
Cutting-edge information refers to existing technological innovations or information that has not yet been officially released, but a small number of people obtain this information through unofficial channels. This information is relatively obscure and is normally not verifiable by the majority, or you may not get accurate answers from official sources. After all, the information provided by official sources must be very mature before it is released, or there may be information they are unwilling to disclose during planning.

What is the MACD indicator?
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is an oscillating type of indicator that is widely used by traders in technical analysis (TA). The MACD is a trend-following tool that uses moving averages to determine the trend of stocks, cryptocurrencies, or other tradable assets.
Developed by Gerald Appel in the late 1970s, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator records past price movements, thus belonging to the lagging category of indicators (providing trading signals based on past price behavior or data). The MACD can be used to gauge market trends and potential price movements, and is employed by many traders to identify potential buying and selling opportunities.

The value support of virtual currencies comes from diverse and complex sources, mainly relying on the following aspects:
1. Supply and Demand Relationship
Market Demand: The demand for specific cryptocurrencies from investors, users, and enterprises directly affects their prices.
For example, Bitcoin is widely recognized as a store of value, with high demand, therefore its price is relatively high.
Scarcity: Most cryptocurrencies have a fixed total issuance, such as Bitcoin's maximum supply of 21 million. This scarcity can drive prices up when demand increases.
2. Technological Foundation

Moving average trading strategies can assist traders in measuring market momentum, analyzing trends, and identifying potential market reversals.
Moving average trading strategies include dual moving average crossovers, moving average bands, moving average envelopes, and exponential smoothed moving averages (MACD).
Although moving average trading strategies can provide valuable insights into market behavior, their signal interpretation may be subjective. To reduce risk, traders often combine these strategies with methods like fundamental analysis.
Moving averages (MA) are commonly used technical analysis indicators that smooth price data over a specified time period. They can be used in trading strategies to identify potential trend reversals, entry and exit points, and support/resistance levels (S/R). This article will explore several moving average trading strategies and how each operates, along with the insights they can provide.

In the cryptocurrency space, for beginners, understanding the general trend of a coin's rise and fall is the most basic technique. Today, we will discuss what a trend line is and how to use it. A trend line refers to a diagonal line drawn on the chart, which allows you to understand price movements and grasp market trends. The following will provide a detailed introduction.
What is a trend line?
In financial markets, a trend line refers to a diagonal line drawn on the chart. The trend line connects specific data points, allowing analysts and traders to easily understand price movements and grasp market trends.

The candlestick chart, also known as the candle chart, Japanese chart, Yin-Yang chart, bar chart, red-black chart, etc., is what we commonly refer to as the K-line. It is drawn based on the opening price, highest price, lowest price, and closing price for each analysis period. The candlestick chart is a form of technical analysis, allowing people to fully record the market conditions of daily or certain periods. After a period of consolidation, the stock price forms a special area or pattern on the chart, with different patterns displaying different meanings.
This article introduces the basic knowledge of candlestick charts in digital currencies: the bullish and bearish engulfing patterns.

The brand new Web3 internet is expected to address current web issues, such as the concentration of power in a few centralized social media platforms that misuse user personal data. Digital assets can become inherent components of Web3. The decentralized and permissionless nature of blockchain helps distribute communication power instead of granting it to central authorities.
Digital assets bring native digital payments to Web3 and can be programmed to function as tokens, playing a broad role in the digital economy system. Through decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs), blockchain and cryptocurrencies can make Web3 more community-centric.

In my understanding, there are several types of people who may succeed.
First, those with continuous cash flow
Note, it is continuous cash flow, not heavy assets. People with heavy assets may have most of their assets in fixed assets like real estate, which are hard to liquidate. They may also hold large amounts of cash, but these one-time assets can easily be consumed in impulsive investments. Especially when position management is poor, it is very easy to charge aggressively. Once faced with a significant correction, they become helpless, just like this time.
Those who have a continuous cash flow are like having infinite bullets. On one hand, these people will not be forced to use their investment assets due to emergencies, such as a family member getting sick and needing a large sum of money. They won't have to sell their investment assets regardless of whether they are currently losing or gaining, or even sell their property for emergencies. On the other hand, when they encounter good assets or suitable opportunities, they always have the capital to buy in. Just like in recent days of correction, those with continuous cash flow hold the initiative.

Part One: Starting Point - Begin with small capital and prepare psychologically.
In the crypto space, starting with small capital and making millions is not impossible, but before you decide to embark on this path, you must clarify your mindset. To succeed, you must first understand that the crypto space is not a game of getting rich overnight, but a battlefield that requires continuous learning, patience, and rational operation.
Many people enter the crypto space with fantasies of getting rich overnight, thinking they can invest a few thousand and then earn millions in just a few months. However, this mindset often leads to hasty operations, blindly following trends, and ultimately being eliminated by the market.

Five major investment rules:
1. Consider and observe the project from multiple perspectives. Do not simply follow the crowd. Many scam projects have appeared in the crypto space; once the founder runs away, there is no way to hold them legally accountable.
2. Understand blockchain-related knowledge, know the industry pain points solved by blockchain, and then enter the crypto space.
3. For the projects you want to invest in, you must have a comprehensive understanding, know if the project truly employs blockchain technology, whether the founder has disclosed their identity and background accurately, if the business logic of the project is closely tied to the token, and whether there are similar projects in the same industry solving industry pain points. If the project successfully lands, does it have the ability to generate profits in real life?

Even if your gambling win rate reaches 90%, without a capital management strategy, your ultimate outcome can only be zero; if you add leverage...
Considering slippage, fees, and various uncontrollable risks will accelerate your bankruptcy.
I also simulated: conducting a complete trade once a week, making trades with a profit-loss ratio of 1:1 at different high win rates, what should be your optimal position.
It can be seen: the higher the win rate, the larger the position can be scaled up, but if you go all in, there is a risk of going to zero; even with a high win rate...
When reaching 70%, reduce each position to a low level.