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[Late Night Interpretation] The Federal Reserve's emergency closed-door meeting ignites the market! What opportunities are hidden behind this once-in-forty-years 'crisis operation'?
At 2 AM today, the Federal Reserve suddenly convened an emergency closed-door meeting, rapidly finalizing decisions within an hour. This rare emergency operation in forty years has caused global capital markets to boil over, with the crypto market facing a critical turning point. As an observer deeply engaged in the market for 8 years, I find that the four major abnormal signals released by this meeting are worth every investor's vigilance:
1. Four major abnormal signals reveal the precursor to market upheaval
1. The interest rate cut game has entered a heated phase Committee members have shown rare divergence on the interest rate cut, with factions arguing over 50 basis points and 75 basis points. Such a degree of opinion divergence is indeed unusual in the history of the Federal Reserve, indicating that monetary policy is at a critical turning point.
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"🚨【Emergency Interpretation】Tonight's Non-Farm Data Will Ignite the Cryptocurrency Market! The Federal Reserve's Internal Disagreements Intensify, Where Will BTC Go?🚨
Tonight at 21:30 (UTC+8), the U.S. Department of Labor will release the September non-farm employment data and unemployment rate! This could be the key event that ignites the cryptocurrency market in the near term! As a Binance KOL, I will summarize the core points for everyone:
🔥 Core Viewpoint: Tonight's data will directly determine whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December, and the expectation for rate cuts has become the most sensitive nerve in the current crypto market!
📊 Macro Fundamentals: • Sensitive Data Period: Due to the previous government shutdown, the September non-farm data is the first important report released with a delay, and the market is paying special attention to it • Internal Disagreements at the Federal Reserve: The minutes from the October meeting show serious divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding whether to cut rates in December - October meeting results: a 25 basis point cut, but two members opposed (one wants a 50-point cut, and the other advocates for no change) - the 'Federal Reserve's Mouthpiece' states: a slight majority may feel uneasy about a rate cut in December • Changes in Market Expectations: The probability of maintaining the interest rate in December has risen to 67.3%, while the probability of a rate cut has decreased to 32.7%
💹 Analysis of Impact on Cryptocurrency: • If the data is weaker than expected (weak employment, rising unemployment rate): it will strengthen rate cut expectations and may drive BTC to rebound. Key indicator: if the unemployment rate rises by 0.1 percentage points, it will be a strong signal that the economy urgently needs support • If the data is stronger than expected: expectations for a rate cut will further cool, and BTC may test lower support levels • Current Market Status: - BTC's current price is about $92591, the market is extremely fearful - if it falls below 92k, it may trigger a long squeeze waterfall, further probing the 88k-90k range - in the past 24 hours, the total liquidations across the network were about $6.56 billion, mainly in long positions
🎯 Trading Suggestions:
1. Focus on the unemployment rate data, which may be a more critical indicator than non-farm employment numbers 2. Pay attention to high leverage position risks before and after the data release, as market volatility may intensify 3. Watch BTC's performance at the 92k key support; a break below may trigger a chain reaction
Summary: In the context of internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve and scarce data, tonight's non-farm data may have amplified influence! Manage risk well and operate cautiously! $ETH
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