加密小杨

I will tell a story. When I suffered the most, I liquidated a 3-day contract losing 3 million, heavily in debt, almost losing my family and life, but the crypto world is so magical. By chance, I received guidance from a master. On a stormy night, I realized that I would start over and become a full-time trader, turning into a professional in crypto trading, diligently studying the technology, spending thousands of days and nights in research and learning! Now I have reaped thousands! Although I can't achieve the small goals like some people who turn 10,000 into 20,000, I am already very content and feel secure. I dream that by the end of this year my account can exceed 100 million, and next year I will have more capital to earn more money.

From the dual perspectives of infrastructure and market demand, the development of on-chain options is at a critical turning point. In recent years, on-chain options protocols have actively explored models such as order books and automated market makers (AMM); however, constrained by technological bottlenecks and product design flaws, they have failed to achieve scalability. A deep analysis reveals that the fundamental reasons are primarily twofold:
Firstly, liquidity providers have long faced the risk of arbitrage order flows, making it difficult to effectively resist adverse selection. In the on-chain trading environment, high-frequency arbitrageurs often leverage their technological and speed advantages to trade ahead of liquidity providers' price adjustments, putting liquidity providers in a disadvantageous position, which severely impacts their willingness to participate in the market.

Why is capital no longer concentrated in Bitcoin? Looking back at the development of Bitcoin, its initial role was akin to a meticulously crafted battering ram, specifically designed to break through regulatory barriers. Its core mission is to challenge and dismantle the absolute prohibition imposed by nations on digital asset holdings. It was born during a dark period when early digital currency experiments repeatedly faced setbacks, with the collapse of E-gold being a typical example. This event ruthlessly revealed the fatal weaknesses of centralized architectures—authoritative bodies can easily destroy a system through simple means such as conducting raids, shutting down servers, or prosecuting key individuals. Satoshi Nakamoto keenly realized that to build a digital asset capable of long-term survival, it was essential to eliminate these single points of failure. Therefore, Bitcoin was designed with resilience against destruction as a priority, rather than pursuing transaction efficiency or user experience.

This week, the macro market is focused on whether the expectation of a rate cut in December can maintain above 50% (current CME live prices show a 69% probability of a rate cut). Given that there are no Federal Reserve officials' speeches scheduled this week, various economic data will become the only key variable affecting market expectations.
1. Key data release
November 25, 21:30: U.S. September PPI data released. Due to the absence of September CPI data, the PPI data will serve as a leading indicator for the CPI, holding significant reference value for market assessments of inflation trends.
November 26, 21:30: U.S. third quarter GDP revision released. However, this data has relatively limited impact on the market, and the specific release time still has uncertainties; it can be monitored but does not require excessive focus.

Recently, the market's expectations for a Fed rate cut in December have undergone a significant and dramatic shift. The core driving factors behind this shift mainly focus on the policy positions of key officials and the weak signals released by the labor market.
New York Fed President Williams, a close ally of Fed Chair Powell, publicly expressing support for interest rate cuts was like a heavy bomb dropped into the market, instantly triggering a strong reaction. The market quickly interpreted this statement as a clear signal of consensus among the Fed's top officials, leading to a significant rise in interest rate expectations, soaring from the original 40% to over 70%.

The development trajectory of Solana is a classic example in the crypto world, intertwining technological faith, market cycles, and the resilience of founders. Anatoly Yakovenko's in-depth review reveals a core logic: truly disruptive technological breakthroughs often stem from a fundamental reconstruction of underlying issues rather than a simple replication of existing models. He creatively migrated the time coding technology from Qualcomm's wireless protocol to the blockchain field, breaking through the consensus efficiency problem by restructuring data architecture. This interdisciplinary technological migration capability is precisely the core competitive advantage that most current blockchain projects lack.

In the past few months, market sentiment has fluctuated violently like a roller coaster, from a pervasive atmosphere of pessimism to a brief spark of bullish hope, and now to deep concerns about systemic risk. This shift in sentiment has not been triggered by a single event, but is the result of multiple macro factors intertwining and acting together. The narrative of Bitcoin as a macro hedge tool has yet to deliver as expected, primarily because its current price movements remain tightly linked to liquidity cycle fluctuations and have not truly decoupled from traditional risk assets.
政策迷雾下的决策滞后：市场不确定性加剧

Some people say that I am a die-hard bull, just blindly bullish.
Some people say that there is no bear market in my eyes, it's always a bull market.
I just want to say: that's just what you think.
Since the end of 2022, our institution has judged that the bear market has bottomed out, and so far, we have maintained a bullish outlook.
However, that doesn’t mean we will always be bullish. Right now, it only seems to you that the bear market has come, but with our in-depth analysis, we know very well that the bull market is still here.
So, it’s not that we are blindly bullish, it’s just that the bear market hasn’t really come, and there’s no reason to look for a bear.
Retail investors always go with the flow.

The market is in panic; both believers and non-believers feel that the bull market in the B circle has ended, and it has completely turned into a bear market.
Those who wanted to enter when Bitcoin was retracing at 126,000, entered at 110,000 and 100,000, but now they are afraid and are thinking it might drop to 80,000, 70,000, or 60,000.
This is human nature; after experiencing a significant rise, you will rush in as soon as there is a slight pullback.
When you experience continuous declines and prices keep breaking previous lows, and you bought at high positions, you will start to feel anxious, thinking that there is no bottom and it will keep falling, always falling. So when the subsequent market rises, you think it is just a rebound because you are still living in the previous world.

A seasoned trader who once achieved nearly $100 million in floating profits on the HyperLiquid platform, after experiencing the network-wide liquidation event on October 10, suffered a daily loss of up to $62 million and ultimately resolutely decided to exit the platform. His decision was not based on short-term profit and loss considerations but stemmed from a deep insight into the platform's deeper systemic design flaws and deviations in industry values.
On October 10, the chain liquidation storm triggered by a Binance oracle failure ruthlessly tore apart the structural fragile veil of the current DeFi ecosystem. In the closely interconnected ecological network of the crypto world, a single point of failure in a centralized platform acts like the first domino, quickly triggering a tsunami of systemic risk across the entire market through a series of links, including API interruptions, failures of market maker hedging mechanisms, and sudden depletion of liquidity. However, regrettably, after the incident, the industry fell into a kind of 'self-deception' carnival, emphasizing 'zero bad debt' and 'protocol integrity', while turning a blind eye to the devastating impact on real users' positions.

At 3 AM, the on-chain alarm suddenly rang! The operations of the whale 'nemorino.eth' left the entire market gasping: On November 6, he spent 17.06 million to buy nearly 5000 ETH, holding it for a full 12 days. This morning, when ETH dropped to $3087, he ultimately had to sell all, suffering a loss of 1.804 million!
This is no coincidence! Every time the whale cuts its losses, it serves as a blood-soaked warning for retail investors. The core question arises: Can ETH break through the $3260 resistance tonight, or will it crash through the $3000 support? Considering this bloody whale operation, and in contrast to the 'golden cross trap' on the candlestick chart, I will candidly share three key points:

Recently, the accelerated selling of Bitcoin by 'whales' has attracted widespread attention in the market; however, from the perspective of cyclical patterns in the crypto market, this behavior is still difficult to define as a panic signal. Based on on-chain activity data from whale addresses, their selling pace shows clear regular characteristics.
This pattern closely aligns with the operational model of early holders during bull market cycles—when the Bitcoin price reaches key psychological levels, such as $100,000, early holders often gradually cash out profits. Moreover, this type of selling usually occurs during periods of ample market liquidity, where early investors, after years of waiting, seize the opportunity for asset reallocation without disrupting the overall market stability.

Recently, the cryptocurrency world has been filled with a strong atmosphere of panic—Bitcoin's price has plummeted like a cliff, breaking through the $96,000 mark, reaching a new low since the end of June. Looking back to early October, Bitcoin stood proudly at a historical high of $126,000, but in just over a month, it has dropped more than 23%, with each coin's value evaporating by over $30,000, and the entire cryptocurrency market's market capitalization shrinking by over $60 billion.
Opening the cryptocurrency forum reveals a heart-wrenching scene: some leveraged 5 times to go long, and upon waking up, their accounts were not only cleared but also owed the platform fees; some were considering changing cars just a few days ago, but now even adding an egg to instant noodles has become a luxury; seasoned players who had held profits for more than half a year had turned to nothing in just a week, everything returned to square one. The complexity of this drop far exceeds expectations.

Currently, the traditional financial system is deeply mired in a profound structural division crisis. The real economy continues to be sluggish, with the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) experiencing a contraction period lasting 18 months, creating a glaring contrast with the false prosperity of the capital markets. This divergence phenomenon reveals a serious mismatch of liquidity—large amounts of funds have not effectively flowed into productive sectors but are blindly circulating within financial assets.
Quantitative easing policies and a low-interest-rate environment act like a powerful stimulant injected into the capital markets, pushing up stock and bond prices. However, the benefits of this policy have mainly been seized by large technology companies and asset holders, failing to drive widespread job growth as expected, nor activating the vitality of small and medium-sized enterprises. This inflation driven by balance sheet expansion is essentially a severe distortion of the wealth distribution mechanism, concentrating wealth further into the hands of a few.

Falling below 100000 does not mean anything. If it rises from 15000 to 120000, others are not allowed to pull back to around 100000. Isn't that a bit too harsh?
In other words, it's normal to have ups and downs. Do you expect it to keep rising? That's impossible.
Determining whether a bull market has ended and identifying a peak is very cautious and professional. It's not just because you see it keep falling that it's a bear market, and just because you see it rise that it's a bull market.
In a bull market, there are pullbacks; in a bear market, there are rebounds. If you can't truly distinguish between bulls and bears, you may miss out on opportunities in a bull market due to pullbacks, and in a bear market, you may get trapped by greed chasing rebounds.

Recently, a hot topic of discussion in the cryptocurrency community has been the price trend of BTC. While many firmly declare that BTC at the price of 98888.8 is the bottom for the Chinese community, the market gave everyone an unexpected "response"—main funds made a move, directly pushing the price below this key position. This drop not only broke the psychological defense of some people but also filled the market with doubts about the subsequent trends.
From a technical perspective, BTC seems to be undergoing a monthly level correction. Such a level of correction often indicates that both the time and space for adjustments will not be small. So, when will this round of correction come to an end? Based on the current technical patterns and market conditions, we can roughly delineate a stop-loss range: 89000 - 96000, with the extreme position around 86000.

From a deep analysis of market structure, the current decline in Bitcoin prices is the result of multiple factors intertwining and resonating, and cannot be driven by a single event. The core inducement lies in the dual pressure brought about by tightening macro liquidity and changes in on-chain holder behavior patterns.
On a macro level, the expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have undergone a dramatic shift, plummeting from a probability as high as 85% to 66.9%. This change is akin to a heavy bomb, triggering a comprehensive sell-off in the risk asset market. Bitcoin, as a high beta asset, is naturally the first to be impacted due to its high sensitivity to market volatility. Meanwhile, the U.S. fiscal situation is showing a surplus in the short term, which directly leads to a reduction in market liquidity injection, creating a severe situation of 'insufficient fiscal funding supply and cooling monetary heat', further intensifying the funding tension in the Bitcoin market.

Just now, U.S. President Trump officially signed the bill, pressing the termination button for the U.S. government shutdown that lasted for 44 days. This shutdown began on October 1 and continued until November 13, breaking the record for the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, becoming a significant event in American politics and economics. The macro liquidity contraction triggered by this shutdown, like a domino effect, dragged the cryptocurrency sector into the most intense and unprecedented liquidation cycle.

Cryptocurrency liquidation volume: More than a month of liquidation equals half a year, the leveraged market is undergoing a crazy 'massacre'

This is not a breakdown of market consensus, but rather a shift of major funds' valuation coordinate system from a single Bitcoin anchor to a more complex liquidity-driven framework.
With the resolution of the U.S. government shutdown crisis, the biggest uncertainty factor hanging over the market has dissipated. The fiscal machinery roars back to life, and trillions of liquidity gushes forth, seeking new value niches in the financial system. However, this time, Bitcoin is no longer the optimal solution—its value storage attribute, as the 'digital gold' of global cryptocurrencies, means that its price elasticity is limited, functioning more as a stabilizer than an accelerator. The real explosion point lies in those undervalued altcoins.

Currently, the Bitcoin market is undergoing a profound structural transformation, characterized primarily by an extension of market cycle rhythms and a systematic reduction in volatility. This change is no coincidence; it is the result of a shift in holder behavior patterns and the emergence of new institutional demand channels working in tandem.
In-depth analysis from the supply side reveals that the shipping strategy of long-term holders has undergone significant changes. In past market cycles, long-term holders typically concentrated their sell-offs during rapid price surges of Bitcoin, a behavior that directly triggered violent market fluctuations and prompted quick transitions in market cycles. However, the current data clearly indicates that long-term holders are now more inclined to adopt a phased and continuous distribution strategy.