涨跌猎人 江念

The Binance chat room has launched the friend-adding feature. Brothers can communicate directly on the official platform if they have questions, ensuring safety, timeliness, and higher efficiency.

The method of adding is very simple:

1️⃣ First save the QR code below

2️⃣ Open the Binance homepage and search for "Chat Room"

3️⃣ Click the "＋" in the upper right corner

4️⃣ Select "Scan" to upload the QR code you just saved,
or search:etf5nqrhl
Once completed, you can add me as a friend. Feel free to contact me anytime.
$BTC $SOL $ETH #聊天室 #加密市场观察

#LUNA2 Currency analysis bearish structure has not been broken
From the overall structure, LUNA2 is still operating within a clearly descending channel. Multiple rebounds have not been able to stabilize above the key resistance zone, volume is lacking, and as soon as the price rises, it is pushed back down by funds, indicating that the dominance still lies with the bears.
The recent rebound was more like a technical correction rather than a trend reversal. High points keep decreasing, and low points have not effectively risen, structurally not supporting sustained strength.
Based on this judgment, a few days ago, when the rebound approached the resistance level, I positioned short with fans in advance and have held it until now. It is not about betting on the market, but rather following the larger trend and patiently waiting for the market to deliver results.
Currently, as long as the price cannot effectively hold above the key structural level, the bearish logic still holds. Fluctuations are rather the best process to test the trend.
Those who truly make money in the market are never the ones who change direction every day, but those who see the right direction and can hold their positions.
The market has opportunities every day, but the correct mindset is not common.
If you want to keep up with the rhythm and understand the logic behind each step, follow me, as I will continue to break down real-time judgments and entry/exit strategies.
$RAVE $ALCH $ICNT #巨鲸动向 #加密市场观察 #ETH走势分析

With small funds in the cryptocurrency market, don’t think about getting rich quickly, first think about 'not dying'.
Many people ask as soon as they enter the market:
'Are there any coins that can turn things around in one shot?'
To be honest, there are, but they don’t come to most people.
What really allows small funds to grow slowly is never luck, but a set of the simplest yet most stable execution methods.
I have been using it and have always had those around me follow suit.
It’s not complicated, but the premise is — you have to be able to hold on.
First, only focus on a few coins, don’t be greedy for more.
There are many opportunities in the cryptocurrency market, but people's attention is limited.
Choose 2-3 coins with good liquidity and high activity, do it repeatedly, and become familiar with them.
When there are too many coins, judgment becomes chaotic, and mistakes are always faster than correct judgments.
Second, when the market is extreme, emotions must be slow by half a beat.
Don’t chase when it rises, and don’t panic when it falls.
The market loves to harvest from those who chase the rise and panic in the moment.
Being a step slower makes you safer.
Third, always leave yourself some room in your position.
Don’t go all in.
Leave at least one-third of your capital, and your mindset will be completely different.
With light positions, judgment is clear;
With heavy positions, emotions will crash first.
Fourth, making money is not about holding more, but about knowing how to move.
Set profit-taking and stop-loss levels before entering.
Withdraw when the target is reached, don’t haggle with the market.
Much of the profit is 'already earned', but sent back due to greed.
Fifth, learning some basic techniques is enough.
No need for complex models or flashy indicators.
Understanding trends, support, and resistance can help you avoid half the pitfalls.
Sixth, enter and exit in batches, don’t bet your life all at once.
If you plan to buy, do it in several rounds;
If you plan to sell, do the same.
Breaking down the risks naturally stabilizes your account.
The last point, and the most important one:
Don’t fully rely on anyone’s opinion, including mine.
The market has no standard answer,
The premise for you to survive long-term is that you know what you are doing.
The cryptocurrency market does not reward smart people,
It only rewards those who are steady, slow, and can execute.
When you can manage risks and maintain rhythm,
Profits will eventually come looking for you.
$OM $EPIC #巨鲸动向 #ETH走势分析 #加密市场观察

I truly began to stabilize in the cryptocurrency world, not because I made a lot, but because I stopped acting recklessly.
When I first entered the market, I also chased quick money:
Prices would surge, and I would jump in at the call of the group.
The result was very real—earn quickly, lose even quicker.
Later, I realized that trading cryptocurrencies has a method that seems very foolish but is extremely effective.
Not seeking to get rich quickly, just hoping to keep the money I earn.
First, let me mention three things that absolutely must not be done.
First, don’t chase the ups.
The real buying point often appears during declines and panic, not when emotions are at their peak.
Second, don’t over-leverage.
Over-leverage is essentially gambling; when the market is uncertain, the heavier the position, the quicker the demise.
Third, never go all in.
Going all in means losing control; once you make a wrong move, you won’t even have a chance to adjust.
Now, let’s talk about a few core rules for short-term trading.
After consolidation, there must be a change, but do not place bets until a direction is established;
Do not trade during sideways movement; many losses come from not being able to control oneself;
K-line simplified: look for opportunities in bearish closes, consider reducing positions in bullish closes;
Slow declines lead to slow rebounds; sharp declines lead to sharp rebounds;
Build positions in batches, leave yourself an exit;
Once a trend completes, it will definitely move sideways, and after moving sideways, it will definitely change.
Later, I discovered that those who can stay in the cryptocurrency world for the long term are never the most aggressive,
but those who make fewer mistakes, maintain a steady rhythm, and know when to stop.
The market does not reward cleverness; it only rewards restraint.
Not seeking to be right on every trade, just ensuring that every step isn’t fatal.
$FORM $BNB #BinanceABCs

I have been contracting with fans, and my deepest feeling over the years can be summed up in one sentence:
Contracts are essentially a long-term confrontation with human nature.
When I first started bringing people along, I saw too many similar scenes.
When the market moved, the group became restless;
Some people just made a little profit and wanted to push their positions to the limit;
Others saw others calling long or short and immediately followed, afraid of missing out.
Once, the market accelerated suddenly.
I laid out my plans in advance, and the direction was right.
Prices surged, and the account curve quickly rose,
Many fans saw floating profits for the first time, and their eyes lit up.
At that moment, the most dangerous thing was not the pullback,
But rather, emotions began to take over operations.
The next day the market reversed.
I chose to reduce positions, take profits, and cut losses according to my strategy,
But there were still people unwilling to leave, wanting to "wait a bit longer."
As a result, the market offered no space for hesitation.
After that time, I repeatedly emphasized one thing:
I bring fans along not to gamble,
But to teach you how to survive in the market.
So my requirements are simple, yet harsh:
First, light positions are the bottom line.
No matter how much you've made, as long as one heavy position goes wrong, all previous efforts will be erased.
Second, stop-loss and take-profit must be executed.
The market will not turn back just because you are reluctant,
If you don't leave when you should, you'll only end up being forced out.
Third, being in cash is also part of trading.
Not every day has worthy opportunities to act,
Being able to resist the urge to move is itself a skill.
Over the years, I've seen some people make a comeback,
And I've seen many more disappear in the same market conditions.
Those who can continue to follow along
Have never been the most aggressive,
But rather the most disciplined ones.
I've always told fans one thing:
Don't be in a hurry to prove yourself,
First learn not to be eliminated by the market.
Contracts are not about who makes money faster,
But about who
Can accompany me in walking further together.
$PIPPIN $AVAAI #非农数据 #巨鲸动向

Tonight's Non-Farm Payroll: The probability of a rise followed by a fall is relatively high.
From the forward-looking data, the overall employment data still shows resilience, and in the short term, it is likely to be interpreted by the market as 'acceptable'. Positive sentiment may be released first, driving risk assets to surge quickly.
However, if wage growth and employment strength remain high, inflation pressure will be difficult to completely alleviate, and interest rate cut expectations will be revised again. The repricing after emotional recovery may actually trigger a pullback more easily.
The essence of this type of market behavior is:
Emotion leads first, followed by logic correcting itself.
Non-Farm Payroll tends to create volatility rather than a one-sided trend, and the structure of rising first and then falling needs to be guarded against.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #BinanceABCs #巨鲸动向 #ETH走势分析

The most brutal truth in the #PIPPIN transaction: losses are never caused by the market, but by losing control.
Last Monday, a brother reached out to me.
His account went from hundreds of thousands U, all the way down to only 5 thousand U.
It wasn't a black swan, nor was he targeted by anyone, but it was a typical case of a complete rhythm collapse.
His state is actually something many people have experienced:
High-frequency trading, chaotic actions, with transaction fees being more "active" than directional judgments;
Holding onto unrealized gains, stubbornly enduring drawdowns;
While comforting himself that "a bull market is coming," he ended up receiving a liquidation reminder.
The most fatal part is emotionally driven trading:
Seeing others flaunt their profits, he heavily invested;
Seeing a decline, he fantasized about a reversal.
In the end, only a string of cold numbers remained in his account.
I only told him one thing:
The deeper the loss, the less one can shoot randomly; one must survive like a sniper.
Next, I had him do only three things.
First, only participate in deterministic markets.
Stay away from 1-minute noise, return to the 4-hour structure.
If the market hasn’t developed, it’s better to stay out.
No more than three trades a day; if you feel restless, missing out is a cost, making mistakes is fatal.
Second, roll over instead of going all in.
Always trade lightly for trial and error, using profits to bear risks:
The first order should not exceed 10%;
Take half of the profit when reaching 20%;
Move the stop-loss for the remaining position;
Immediately reduce the position if there’s a 5% drawdown, don’t confront the market head-on.
Third, discipline is above all technicalities.
If there are two consecutive losses, one must stop;
Review daily, analyze profits for methods, seek logic for losses;
Never harbor the illusion of "waiting a little longer for it to come back"—that’s the softest lie before a liquidation.
Later, this account gradually stabilized, slowly recovering from 5 thousand U.
He asked me: "Why didn’t anyone tell me these things earlier?"
The answer is simple:
Most people are not trading, but gambling.
Conclusion
The real counterattack in the crypto circle never relies on heavy positions turning around,
but rather on risk control, discipline, and time.
Stop-loss is the bottom line;
Rhythm is survival ability;
As long as the account is still there, you always have the next opportunity.
If you can understand this, you are already more awake than most.
Survive first, then profit will come to you.
$PTB $HANA #BinanceABCs #加密市场观察

The Core of Trading: Survive First, Then Talk About Profits
In the crypto market, what makes the difference is not how much you earn in a day, but whether your account can survive in the long term. As long as you are in the market, opportunities will naturally come.
Profits require defense.
Once floating profits appear, immediately enter protection mode:
Don't guess the peak; lock in profits according to the rules to ensure gains are realized.
Losses must be decisive.
You must execute an exit at the stop-loss point. A stop-loss is not a failure, but a way to preserve chips for the next opportunity.
Pacing must be coherent.
The pullback after selling is an important way to enhance capital efficiency. Transaction fees are not the focus; stability is.
Choose a market that suits you.
In a volatile market, change the target; being in cash is a judgment, not a retreat.
Remember:
Controlling risk and retaining profits means you have already outperformed most people.
$FHE $BEAT $GUN #BinanceABCs #加密市场观察 #ETH走势分析

From 2000U to over 20,000+ trading review: The core logic of amplifying small funds
Many people believe that trading with small funds is riskier.
But what truly determines the life and death of an account is never the size of the principal, but the rhythm and risk control.
This is a real review from a fan:
Starting capital of about 2000U, achieving over 10 times growth within a month. No insider information, no all-in bets, the core is only one point—strictly executing the rhythm and compound interest logic.
1. Prioritize compound interest, reject all-or-nothing bets
In the initial stage, only adhere to two rules:
Position control within 30%
Take profit at about 8% per trade
The goal is not to make huge profits, but to steadily realize positive returns.
The principal always serves as a safety bottom line, and subsequent trades use more profits to roll over, gradually transferring risk to the market.
2. Stop-loss and position increase: Do not fight against the market
The key to trading is not in judgment, but in response:
No high-confidence signals, do not enter
Confirm the trend, increase positions in batches
If the direction is wrong, immediately stop loss
Stop-loss is not failure, but a responsibility to capital.
Most losses stem from not being able to afford small losses, ultimately leading to big losses.
3. Three-stage rhythm model
Capital defense: Small positions for trial and error, survive first
Profit expansion: Use profits to bear risks
Mentality advancement: Execute according to rules, accept fluctuations
The difficulty lies not in the method, but in when to advance and when to retract. Once the rhythm is misaligned, the results are often completely different.
🔥 Final advice
The size of capital determines the starting point, and rhythm control determines the endpoint.
The real danger is not having a small principal, but being eager for quick success and neglecting risk control.
As long as “survive” is prioritized,
small funds can also carve out their own upward curve.
$FHE $BEAT $GUN #BinanceABCs #巨鲸动向 #ETH走势分析

12.15 Market Analysis

Recently, the market has weakened again, with frequent contract liquidations, primarily influenced by the correction in the AI sector of the US stock market and the dual impact of expectations for interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. Risk appetite has contracted in stages, and the market has entered a period of high volatility and fluctuations.
The judgment for the future market remains unchanged: BTC still needs 1–2 months of consolidation to digest, after which it will be in a position to challenge new highs.
The medium-term logic still depends on the direction of US policy, with expectations for falling inflation and interest rates not yet undermined.
Operationally, the focus is on defense, avoiding chasing rises, and gradually positioning during pullbacks.
BTC needs to stabilize above $94,000 for at least two trading days before the market may re-enter a trend phase.
The above is only a market observation and does not constitute investment advice. Please make your own trading decisions and strictly control risks.
$FHE $BAS $ICNT #加密市场反弹 #美SEC推动加密创新监管 #加密市场观察

After nine years of trading, my most important ability is only one: to wait.
What truly limits trading results is never analytical ability, but whether one possesses the discipline to wait.

The market fluctuates every day, but most movements do not have tradable value.

Mature traders do not seek to act frequently, but only participate in the market at times when trading advantages are highly concentrated.

These advantages consist of multiple conditions, and only when they appear simultaneously does trading have a positive expectation.

Trading is not about predicting trends, but about filtering opportunities.

Those who can profit in the long term are often not the most diligent, but the most restrained.

When you learn to be in cash, be patient, and wait, only executing when the odds favor you, trading truly becomes controllable.

$PROMPT $FHE $BEAT #加密市场反弹 #ETH走势分析

Newcomers to the contract market face the biggest risk not from market trends, but from misjudging the risk mechanism.
Most accounts that quickly go to zero are repeating the same set of erroneous logic.
Five high-frequency danger zones:
1️⃣ Excessive leverage
High leverage compresses the margin for error; 3–5 times leverage allows for survival.
2️⃣ No stop-loss set
Establish a loss limit first; stop-loss is a survival tool, not a failure.
3️⃣ Position control lost
Single trade risk should not exceed 2% of the principal to avoid a single mistake wiping out the account.
4️⃣ Emotional trading
Chasing highs and cutting losses stem from unplanned operations; discipline is more important than judgment.
5️⃣ Ignoring platform and extreme risks
Price spikes and slippage are mechanism issues; proactively reduce risk before major market events.
Summary:
Contracts do not reward boldness; they reward risk control and discipline.
Survival comes first before discussing profit.
$ZEC $LRC $PROMPT #加密市场反弹 #美SEC推动加密创新监管 #ETH走势分析

#BEAT Trend Analysis
BEAT is currently still in a weak oscillation recovery phase following a decline, and the overall trend has not reversed. The trading volume is insufficient, and the moving average structure is bearish, with the rebound more related to emotional recovery rather than trend initiation.
In the short term, there are no conditions for chasing rises, and in the medium term, it is necessary to wait for a breakthrough through key resistance levels to confirm the direction. Currently, a defensive approach is more suitable to avoid emotional participation.

$PROMPT $FHE $BEAT #加密市场反弹 #美联储FOMC会议 #美SEC推动加密创新监管

#US Contract strategy is executing a bearish approach

From a structural perspective, the US has repeatedly faced resistance near the previous highs, and during the rebound, trading volume has consistently decreased, showing a clear divergence between price and volume, indicating a weakening short-term momentum. The current trend aligns more with the characteristics of the end of a rebound rather than the initiation of a new trend.

Combining multi-period structural analysis, the effectiveness of the upper pressure zone is relatively high, and the risk-reward ratio leans towards the bearish side. Based on this logic, a US short strategy has been executed after confirming signals with followers.

This strategy prioritizes defense principles:

Positions are strictly controlled

Stop-loss is prioritized; exit immediately if logic fails

No subjective preference for a single direction

Trading is not about predicting direction but participating in probability within advantageous zones. If the direction is correct, follow patiently; if the judgment is wrong, exit promptly to ensure long-term stability.

$PROMPT $JELLYJELLY $LUNA2 #加密市场反弹 #美SEC推动加密创新监管 #ETH走势分析

Recently, several old followers I brought along have shown stable overall performance, with returns continuing to expand. The reason lies not in predictions, but in the strategy system itself.

There is a plan, a rhythm, and it is not emotional.

During periods of severe volatility, the market becomes clearer:

If the trend is to continue, emotions must be repeatedly cleansed.

The current fluctuations are not chaos, but a standard consolidation process.

It clears away floating capital, emotional traders, and those who cannot hold onto their chips.

When the chip structure is reorganized, funds can then push the next stage of the market.

The pullback you see is not a signal of the end, but a breathing period for the trend.

Maintain rhythm, execute discipline, and only seize opportunities with clear structures to avoid being shaken out of the market.

The market direction is ultimately chosen by funds, not determined by emotions.

The current trend clues have already been made sufficiently clear,

Whether you can keep up with the rhythm depends on your execution ability.

$AIOT $ICNT $MERL #美联储降息 #美联储FOMC会议 #美SEC推动加密创新监管

What determines whether you can make money is not the win rate, but whether you can stabilize your losses.

In a mature trading system, losses are never the problem; uncontrollable losses are the risk itself.

Professional traders can maintain their rhythm, not because their win rates are high, but because they understand that stop-loss is a cost, not a failure.

What affects emotions is not the stop-loss, but improper position management.

Once a position is held, subjective bias can occur, so key decisions must be set before opening a position, and only execution should be done after holding.

Four principles of trading:

Clarify the basis for opening a position (verifiable technical signals)

Plan stop-loss in advance (key structural levels)

Set target take profit (clearly defined range)

Quantify the worst outcome (position matching risk)

Take profit: discipline over greed

Regardless of how strong the trend is, fully open take profits are unprofessional.

Phased realization + retaining the base position is the core of controlling drawdown and extending profit cycles.

Profits that should be collected must be collected; unexpected returns are extra rewards that are not worth being greedy for.

$ICNT $RIVER $AXL #加密市场反弹 #美SEC推动加密创新监管 #加密市场观察

#ZEC Trend Analysis
ZEC is currently still in a structurally weak position.
Fundamentally, the privacy sector's heat has decreased, with no new catalysts in the ecosystem, and on-chain activity remains persistently low.
There is a lack of incremental capital, weak liquidity, and mainstream capital's risk appetite continues to shift towards stronger assets.
Technically, the daily chart maintains a downward structure, with moving averages in a bearish arrangement, and rebounds are mostly corrections of oversold conditions, lacking volume confirmation.
In summary, ZEC has not yet shown a trend reversal signal and remains weak in the short to medium term.
$ICNT $BEAT $AXL #加密市场反弹 #美SEC推动加密创新监管 #ETH走势分析

#AIAUSDT The perpetual contract has been automatically liquidated and officially delisted.

Binance has completed the automatic liquidation of the AIAUSDT USDT perpetual contract on 2025/12/11 20:15 (UTC+8), and this trading pair has officially been delisted and will no longer provide any trading services.

Instructions

New positions have been stopped since 19:45 before delisting.

In the last hour, due to the risk fund not participating in forced liquidation, there were severe fluctuations and a decrease in market liquidity.

Binance took corresponding risk control measures during the process to ensure the liquidation process was smoothly completed.

Reminder

If you still hold related assets or have unconfirmed fund changes, you can go to the contract account to check the final settlement records.

$JELLYJELLY $LIGHT $TRUTH #美联储降息 #加密市场反弹 #美联储FOMC会议

Market Analysis

The Federal Reserve has initiated a monthly purchase of $40 billion in short-term debt. Although referred to as a 'technical operation,' it effectively creates a net liquidity injection, which the market interprets as a signal of moderate easing.

Macro Highlights

Rising repo rates → Indicate tight reserves, forcing the Federal Reserve to inject liquidity.

The target remains to stabilize short-term interest rates in the range of 3.5%–3.75%.

Nominally non-QE, but the effect is close to 'invisible easing.'

Market Reaction

The US dollar index has broken down: the technical outlook continues to be bearish (RSI/MACD are weakening simultaneously).

Risk appetite has rebounded: sentiment in US stocks, gold, and cryptocurrencies has improved.

Strategy Direction

Short-term outlook for the US dollar remains bearish, benefiting non-US currencies.

Risk assets can be slightly bullish but need to control the pace to guard against pullbacks due to a reversal in policy tone.

$LIGHT $TRUTH $JELLYJELLY #美联储降息 #加密市场反弹 #美联储FOMC会议

#JELLYJELLY Currency Analysis

JELLYJELLY belongs to the sentiment category of Solana, with its core driving force coming from community enthusiasm rather than fundamentals. It has a small market capitalization and concentrated holdings, making the price significantly influenced by large holders, resulting in extremely high volatility.

In the short term, there is a chance for a rebound relying on sentiment; in the medium to long term, there is a lack of strong support, and it requires the product to truly launch in order to develop a sustained market trend. Compared to the same sector, it has strong enthusiasm but weak certainty, making it more suitable for light positions and quick trades, and not advisable for heavy long-term holding.
$TRUTH $LIGHT $YALA #美联储降息 #加密市场反弹 #美联储FOMC会议