命里何时终须有

Famous tech media Axios asked: When you use Gemini 3, is there ever a time when you feel that the content it produces is beyond your understanding?
Hassabis (Demis Hassabis, founder and CEO of DeepMind): The technological advancements in the field of AI are happening too fast today, and developers often experience only a fraction (1/10) of the model's full capabilities before the next generation model is released. Developers are solely focused on competing with their rivals.
As for product usage, as a research institution, although they build models, once a model is released to billions of users, the user community can uncover extremely diverse and even very cool applications and emergent abilities that the developers themselves had never imagined.
Moreover, regarding the "AI bubble theory," Hassabis' conclusion is:
"AI is overestimated in the short term and severely underestimated in the long term."
"There is a lot of talk about an artificial intelligence bubble right now. In my view, I think it is not a single, black-and-white issue. I believe that some parts of the artificial intelligence ecosystem are indeed in a bubble. One example is the seed funding for startups that are basically just getting started, which are valued at hundreds of billions of dollars right off the bat. It will be interesting to see how this situation can be sustained. My guess is that it probably won’t, at least not in a general sense. So, this is one area. Then, what people are concerned about is the valuations of large tech companies and other issues. I believe that there is a lot of real business supporting that. But this remains to be seen. I think for any incredible, transformative, and far-reaching new technology, AI technology is undoubtedly the most profound."

一组关于我国居民存款最近六年发生*巨变*的数据：
“最近六年，中国居民存款增加量约为80万亿，而2018年居民存款余额才71.6万亿。也就是说，最近六年，我国居民存的钱比2018年之前100年存的还多，甚至有可能相当于汉代以来2000多年中国人累计存款的总量。目前，中国人均存款约为11万元人民币。”
这一组数据经 Gemini 核实，基本属实。
由于未来收入预期的不确定性增加，居民消费趋于保守，出现了大规模的防御性储蓄。仅2022年和2023年两年，居民存款就分别增加了17.84万亿和16.67万亿，这是历史上从未有过的高速增长。
这是一个非常惊人的经济现象。这组数据客观反映了中国居民财富配置正在发生历史性的转移—— 从房地产和激进投资，转向了银行存款这一避险港湾。
但需特别强调的是：存款增加不等于财富增加。这80万亿居民存款的增长，很大一部分不是因为大家收入暴涨赚来的，而是人们不敢花钱（消费降级）、和不敢投资省下来的。这在经济学上某种程度反映了需求的不足。

The WeChat public account "Future City Vision" states: Due to the Earth's rotation, silt from the mouths of major rivers tends to flow westward. Therefore, the Yangtze River Delta and the western bank of the Pearl River Delta are more susceptible to siltation.

Hong Kong and Shenzhen, located on the eastern side of the Pearl River Estuary, possess naturally high-quality coastlines. Analysis of silt volume at the estuaries reveals that the Yangtze River carries 10 times more silt than the Pearl River Delta. This makes Shenzhen and Hong Kong the only megacities in China capable of building their city centers on the coastline.

【房地产与提振消费之间的内在逻辑与联动机制】
仇保兴（原住建部副部长、国际欧亚科学院院士）：
“房地产对消费的关系，是很明确的。稳定资产价值和市场预期，才能真正稳固消费。不能简单地试图刺激消费，而应首先稳定资产价值与市场预期。”
“一个家庭的消费能力主要取决于两个因素：一、家庭有多少资产；二、对未来收入的预期。”
“当前消费低迷，正是由于这两个基础受到了冲击。房地产市场的下滑直接导致家庭资产大幅缩水，同时也削弱了人们对未来收入的信心，从而必然抑制消费。有一些专家几年前提出来的好像是房地产价格高了，挤掉了消费，这个观点是不正确的。”
朱宁（上海交通大学上海高级金融学院教授）：
“必须正视房地产的投资属性。2016年提出"房住不炒"。"住"，侧重消费属性，"炒"，指的是投机。但房地产同样具备投资属性，如同国债、股票一样。目前，部分房价下跌的地区，租金收益率已接近2%，虽不算高，但相较于存款已具有一定吸引力。”
“抑制投机的同时，不应否定其合理的投资属性。房地产始终是消费属性与投资属性并存的资产，从金融学角度应当理性看待，并为房地产的投资属性正名。”
“两个国内值得警惕的动向：一、市场对房地产调整的深度和时长估计不足；二、年轻一代对房地产的认知与态度已发生根本性转变。95后、00后经历了楼盘交付风险、房价下跌和就业压力，不再视房价上涨为必然，这已显著抑制其购房意愿与相关消费。”
“房地产一定得救。房地产对于中国的经济、对于社会的信心、对于消费的增长，实在太重要了。”
“此外，由于我国缺乏个人破产等债务纾困制度，部分购房者因无力持续还贷而陷入困境，甚至被列入失信名单，严重影响了其正常生活与发展。国外有个人破产制度，有保护购房者的制度，让你不会因为买错了一套房被它拖累很长一段时间。我一直呼吁国内个人破产法的制度，在银行和个人之间究竟谁来承担房价下跌的这个过程中的损失方面，我觉得我们应该做一些更有利于个人，更有利于家庭的一些政策的调整。”
王波明（联办总干事）：
“在当前经济环境下，稳楼市或比稳股市更为重要。一方面，楼市的财富基础和覆盖范围更广，绝大多数家庭都拥有房产，其稳定直接关系到更广泛民众的资产安全和消费信心；此外，股市的活跃投资者数量有限，股市回暖对整体消费的边际拉动作用较弱。因此，楼市的稳定是畅通经济循环的关键一环。”
ps：这些发言让我想起不久前我在群讨论中写下的：
“但凡房地产危机，没有天量资金和力挽狂澜的国家意志，都不可能有什么实质意义上的改变。”
这些发言还让我想起与某个好友聊天时的有感而发：
“…… 这是房地产金融属性决定的。房地产一旦不稳（至少要平稳、不能跌），那么就是下跌，跌跌不休。你这个东西买完了，马上又跌10%，谁买。如果完全没有了金融属性反而好。”

Howard Marks recently said in a conversation with William Green (author of "Richer, Wiser, Happier"):
"The essence of investing is not to seek certainty, but to find ways to make probabilities work in your favor amidst uncertainty."
This aligns closely with Charlie Munger's investment philosophy, leading to the same destination.
Munger said: horse racing is investing, and investing is horse racing.
In this context, Munger stated: "We are looking for a horse with a winning probability of 1/2 and odds of 3 to 1."
At the same time, Howard Marks praised Munger for "turning talent into a complete system":
Charlie is truly a genius. He reads widely, thinks deeply, and can immerse himself in his world of thought all day long. One of his most representative contributions is the proposal of the "multidisciplinary thinking model," later known as the "grid theory." This is essentially like a toolbox for investors.
Ultimately, adults, especially investors, spend a significant portion of their work on "pattern recognition." If you live long enough, observe carefully, and add a bit of intelligence, you will gradually acquire this ability:
When you see a certain situation arise, you don’t need to analyze from scratch: "What is this? Why? What does it mean? What should I do?" You will naturally respond: "I’ve seen this before, I know how to handle it." To achieve this, you must build your own "toolbox" that can identify which tool to use and which model to apply in different scenarios. This is Charlie's strength.
Charlie is not only extremely smart but also deeply thoughtful, with a high degree of systematization. He is also very straightforward and never euphemistic. Regardless of whom he is speaking to, in any situation, and whether it is politically correct or not, he always expresses his views directly.
What I admire most is that he not only has talent, but more importantly, he has turned that talent into a complete system. His talents are structured, methodical, and framed... that’s what allows for long-term success. Moreover, these thoughts have profoundly influenced Buffett.
One of the most famous examples is his advice to Buffett to abandon the "cigar butt stock" strategy—meaning picking up those companies with extremely low prices but fundamentally poor quality, and instead buying reasonably priced but truly excellent companies. It can be said that this philosophy directly shaped the Buffett we know today and contributed to the success of Berkshire Hathaway.

“供强需弱”这个四个字配得上2025年“年度词”。

This colloquial language is unforgettable.

TIME's latest issue has selected "The Architects of AI" as the Person of the Year for 2025. The inspiration for the photo clearly comes from the third image, this cover from nearly a century ago, "1927 Person of the Year cover of TIME".
As we move into the era of artificial intelligence after a century, the most notable point that makes the Chinese community proud is that among the eight significant leaders in the field of AI in the photo, three are of Chinese descent: Dr. Su Zifeng, Huang Renxun, and Li Feifei.

《晚点》：怎么让下属对你说真话？
方洪波：取决于一把手自己是不是想听到真话。
一个 CEO、董事长能听到什么，取决于你想听到什么。
我举这个例子是想说企业家一定要对一线最真实情况有所掌握，这是洞察力的来源。大企业的 CEO 往往是很难听到真实声音的，高管对下面层层阻隔、过滤，他们天生有这个倾向。

“A person's success in society is never determined by their university degree, but by their social skills. This is a truth that countless parents overlook.”
Yes, in reality, there are many adults who have not been socialized. They have never truly socialized. In daily life, whenever I encounter someone who is obviously unsocialized and unable to articulate their reasoning, I often use a phrase from Minnan dialect to describe such a person: “TA has not yet duin big” (duin, pronounced in Minnan, means to describe someone who has not yet grown up).
Every time I meet such a pseudo-adult who has not truly socialized but feels good about themselves, I always want to say: you think you are an adult, but that is just an illusion of yours.

The following set of data 【5.2 years】 VS 【1.8 years】 is shocking.
According to the 2022 statistics from the Ministry of Education: the average technical update cycle for teachers in vocational colleges in our country is 【5.2 years】, while the industrial technology iteration cycle has been shortened to 【1.8 years】. This means that the technology taught by vocational college teachers is often outdated, and the techniques learned by students are often those that have already been eliminated.

今天早上八点半左右，我从深圳福田高铁站出发前往香港办事。从登车的客流中，我观察到：
几乎清一色年轻人（上班一族）；其次，目测女性在客流里的占比明显更高，甚至可能高达四分之三左右。
在上班高峰这个时间段，通过福田站南下，14分钟即可直抵香港城市中心的年轻人，很明显就是在深港双城之间穿梭的通勤族：在港工作、居深居住。
毋庸置疑，前两年港府推出的“优才”“高才”青年人才引进计划，已经吸引了大量内地青年才俊赴港就业。
另一个观察，是否存在一个潜在的性别结构：
内地赴港工作的女性青年，其自身履历条件以及赴港的意愿，是否明显高于男性青年？不过，也有可能是因为赴港工作的女性青年，她们所在的工作岗位更适合深港两地通勤。赴港工作的男性，其工作岗位性质可能更不具备在深港两地通勤的条件。
无论如何，港府的“优才”“高才”计划，已经给深圳一些特定地段的住宅物业带来了数量众多的租客群体。而且，这样的租客群体往往承租能力更强。这已经是深圳住宅租赁市场上一个不争的事实。

我想，我们的义务教育阶段，如果能让孩子们都接受一堂像吴军所论述的：为什么稀缺资源要按效率优先原则进行竞价分配，这样的思辨课程，那么，我们将来的社会一定会大面积地避免高举道德旗帜、而最终却变成好心办坏事的荒唐之事。
哈耶克说，我们被告知，正是在追求善意中，通往地狱的道路才被铺平。

尤瓦尔·赫拉利在《未来简史》中提出一个公式：
【知识】 = 【体验】 × 【敏感度】
（Knowledge = Experience × Sensitivity）
只靠体验本身不一定能产生知识。关键是，你能否从体验中“看见”些什么。一个敏感度高的人，哪怕一次小失败，也能提炼出深刻知识。敏感度低的人，即使经历千百次失败，也只是重复同样的错误。
赫拉利认为，人类未来最大的竞争力不是“体验多”，而是“从体验中提炼知识的能力”。在人工智能时代尤其如此：
信息不再稀缺（AI比人类更快）。敏感度、洞察力、反思力，这些才是人的独特优势。因此赫拉利说，人类真正意义上的知识，其本质是：
【高质量体验】 × 【高觉察能力】 × 【反思与抽象】
我们在有限的人生中经历各种事情，不能只是为了完成任务，而是在经历每一个事件、完成每一个任务的过程中体验生活。
长期以来，拥有深刻的“洞察力”是我持续追求的。今天获得赫拉利的这个论断，感同身受。我们活着就是追求尽可能广、尽可能深的体验，以期从中获得智慧。我想，这才是我们生而为人最大的价值所在。我们在人生中体验完整的生命，我们从中获得智慧。

引言：“1.08万亿美元的贸易顺差，说明绝对有人挣到钱了，而且不少。但为什么现在网上哀嚎一片？可能因为发声的都是出了问题的人，挣钱的人全部隐身了，闷声发财。”
（以下是多人参与讨论的发言）
1、热钱滚滚，但是不在民生消费行业，所以珠三角体感很寒凉。目前看，真的还是因为广东太重商业，太重贸易，轻视理工科教育。而且民企天然无法成为科研投入主力军，就没有溢出效应。深圳这几年因为房价失落，但是广州这几年也很没落。广州的朋友对城市更没信心，士气更低。
2、哪里有信心呢？
3、江浙一带。
4、最近开了一些去南美的航线。其实如果你们看新增航线，就知道哪些地方经济往来非常频繁。因为需要频繁的商务需求和紧密的联系，才能支撑起超长航线。
5、闽商在抱团下南洋。这里面有好多故事，现在针对这股抱团，当地还有很多杀猪盘在等着他们。
6、其实都是：我看你好，你看我好。距离产生美。
@貔貅陈
注：我国1.08万亿美元贸易顺差是前11个月的数据。（作为对比，排在第二名的德国，其前三季度的贸易顺差为1640亿美元。）

Caixin: The dense skyline is seen by many as a symbol of economic development and prosperity. From an adaptation perspective, what risks has it accumulated?
Li Xiaojiang: Many people understand modernization as the taller the building, the better. Especially some leading comrades, who have an inexplicable sense of comparison, finding beauty in height, size, and oddity. Under such a value orientation, our cities are all becoming the same.
But I believe this is an aesthetic and value system from a time of poverty. Many developed countries have not taken this path; for example, Rome and Paris have maintained their appearance unchanged for hundreds of years.
Of course, more importantly, there is the issue of safety. High-rise residential buildings are even more vulnerable than villages. The lifestyle in a village largely depends on nature. Unless faced with an extreme situation that destroys the entire village, it is generally easier to obtain water and food during disasters.
However, high-rise residential buildings are very dense and their operation highly relies on human resources. When the human systems completely break down, food, water, and electricity become major problems. This was confirmed during the Zhengzhou "7.20" rainstorm. In the entire disaster, high-rise residential buildings were the most affected, for the longest duration.
Our housing usage rights last for seventy years, while elevators last only fifteen years, and pipelines last twenty years. The aging of equipment and appliances accumulates risks over time and directly affects their response capabilities.
Within a seventy-year cycle, several updates and renovations need to be made, and the costs are much higher than those of low-rise buildings. Who will pay for this? Beijing and Shanghai have the earliest high-rise residential buildings, and in recent years, elevator issues have often caused conflicts, becoming a headache for government departments.
Therefore, I have always believed that high-rise residential buildings will be one of the heaviest burdens on Chinese society.
Caixin: Climate warming is closely related to urban fires, with studies showing that higher temperatures lead to more urban fires. Are high-rise residential fires also a significant hidden danger?
Li Xiaojiang: Absolutely. Fires are the biggest hidden danger.
High-rise residential buildings are overdrawing our future safety. We have 100 reasons to oppose the construction of high-rise residential buildings, but the most fundamental reason is fire safety. Not showering or using the toilet can still be endured, but when it comes to life and death, there is no room for compromise.
—— Caixin dialogue with Li Xiaojiang, December 2024
Note: Li Xiaojiang, former president of the China Academy of Urban Planning and Design. The full interview title is "High-rise Residential Buildings Will Be a Heavy Burden on Chinese Society." The above is an excerpt from the dialogue titled "High-rise Residential Buildings Overdraw Safety."
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On: "Inheritance is possible, but dependence is not" | Cultivating children's financial literacy.
1. Research shows that about 66% of American millionaires did not receive any financial support from their parents beyond their college education.
2. A more interesting study indicates that there is actually a negative correlation between the funds adult children receive from their parents and their wealth accumulation — the more adult children receive from their parents, the less wealth they accumulate through their own efforts.
3. The author refers to this phenomenon as "Economic Outpatient Care." Like outpatient care in medicine, parental financial assistance to adult children is often continuous and small-scale. However, over time, it not only depletes the parents' wealth but also undermines the children's ability to be self-reliant.
4. A profound observation in the book: giving money to adult children conveys a subconscious message that parents believe they cannot succeed on their own. This psychological suggestion may become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Children may feel, "Anyway, my parents are backing me up," thus lacking the motivation to strive.
5. More importantly, the book finds that adult children usually cannot distinguish between the wealth they create and the wealth provided by their parents as gifts. They will consider parental assistance as their own income, thereby maintaining a lifestyle beyond their actual capabilities.
6. This "wealth illusion" can prevent adult children from ever truly becoming independent.
7. Successful wealth accumulators not only achieve financial independence themselves but also cultivate their children's ability to be financially independent. The book mentions the wise practice of a doctor: this doctor sets up a trust for his children but stipulates that funds will not be distributed until they are at least 40 years old. Because of this, his money has little impact on their lifestyle. They must rely on their own efforts to live, rather than waiting to inherit wealth.
8. However, in China, data shows that 67.2% of first-time homebuyers rely on their parents' "six wallets" for support, with an average amount of 368,000 yuan. This is just for the down payment; many parents also help with monthly payments. Moreover, it's not just buying a house; getting married, having children, and raising children all require parental support.
Comment: In this regard, the opinion of this blog is that it should depend on the situation.
If the family has a certain economic strength, and the child is also outstanding, if the child can establish themselves in a big city, then even if it takes six wallets, they should be supported in settling down in first-tier or some excellent second-tier cities. This is one of the most important measures to change the family's destiny. But if the child can only find a job in a third-tier or lower city, considering that housing prices in small places are very low, then the child should earn money and buy a house through their own efforts.
9. This intergenerational wealth transfer has formed a vicious cycle in China: the wealth accumulated by parents over a lifetime is consumed by their children's mortgage, car loans, and childcare expenses. Because children have the support of their parents, they lack financial pressure and therefore lack the motivation to accumulate wealth.
Comment: It has never been easy to buy property in super cities. The same goes for the United States.
Without the support of the previous generation, unless you are one of the extremely few outstanding young people, it is super difficult to buy property in New York or the San Francisco Bay Area. However, this is of great significance for changing the family's destiny. Therefore, I strongly feel that buying property in super cities is fundamentally different in difficulty and significance from buying in lower-tier cities. As parents, there should be a clear understanding of this. The children should be aware of it too.
10. More seriously, this kind of assistance is often one-sided. Parents give money to their children when they are young, and when they grow old and need care, the children are unable to support them due to their own financial pressures. This is why China's pension replacement rate is only 40%, far below the international standard of 70%.
11. From the children's perspective, accepting parental assistance can indeed make life easier in the short term. But in the long run, what you lose is your ability and confidence to be independent.
12. Most importantly, children should be educated about financial literacy from a young age. They should know how money is earned, understand the difficulties their parents face in making money, and learn how to manage money. At the same time, they should also understand: parents' money belongs to the parents, not to them. They can inherit it, but they cannot depend on it.
—— "The Millionaire Next Door" | Characteristics of Millionaires, Notes
Comment: Regarding this idea in the book, I feel very strongly, which is a prominent viewpoint I often mention — "Adults can only be independent in character if they are financially independent."
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有人说：这些年资产价格崩塌主要原因在于通缩。
这完全是说反了。现实顺序应该是：
“资产价格崩塌”→“引发资产负债表损坏”→“消费极剧萎缩”→“收入普降”→“资产价格进一步下降”…… 如此循环…… →“通缩”。现实中发生的逻辑就是这样，而不是反过来。
此外，如截图所示，一个值得庆幸的事情是，关于“一鲸落、万物生”，这个一直以来被人们笃信的“房地产必须死，民生万业才有可能兴旺”的错误信仰，经过这几年现实世界带来的血淋淋的教训，很多人似乎已经开始醒悟过来。

Liu Jipeng: "The US stock market has risen eightfold over the past seventeen years, consistently reaching new highs. The A-share market, on the other hand, has fallen from 6000 points to below 3000 points over the past seventeen years, which must have some inherent reasons. We can no longer ignore our internal reasons. I believe that, to put it bluntly, it is the reduction of holdings by major shareholders. The reduction of holdings by major shareholders has troubled us for over a decade. The reason why the A-share market finds it difficult to break through 4000 points is fundamentally due to the reduction of holdings by major shareholders; every time the stock market rises, the major shareholders run away."

“AI教父”杰弗里·辛顿（Geoffrey Hinton）：
一、AI学习效率比人类高数十亿倍。
AI系统之间的知识蒸馏效率相比人际信息交换。效率提升好几十亿倍，真的非常可怕。而且，AI进化的速度可能远超人类生物进化与文化进度。
（以智能体协作的图景为例），成千上万的智能体一起工作，互相分享它们的经验，之后通过数字神经网络连接。这是人不可能做到的。虽然生物计算消耗的能量非常低，我们人类吃一碗饭、一个馒头就可以用大脑，但是在信息传递和分享方面，这种效率太低了。如果能源能够便宜，数字计算肯定比大脑计算更好用。
二、基础研发和应用两者都非常重要。
发展AI如果忽视实际应用，将会是一个重大失误。只考虑应用而不推动底层理念发展，也是大错特错。基础研发和应用，二者都非常重要。
中国拥有上海周边的长三角地区，那里聚集了大量的AI技术开发力量。而大湾区（珠三角地区)或许会更侧重于AI的应用层面。
基础研发和应用两者都非常重要。我们需要思考如何通过AI的应用与研究来创造更多价值，针对不同的应用场景提出新思路。这些都非常关键。
—— 辛顿对话云天励飞陈宁（线上），节选，12月2日