冰糖橙子君

The current market structure is becoming increasingly clear:

First Tier: BTC
Bitcoin is now the new "gold standard" in the financial world, with ETFs, national reserves, and crypto treasury all aggressively allocating resources, and it may even become a "fiat currency substitute asset" in the future.

Second Tier: ETH
If BTC is the "digital gold," ETH is the "crypto Wall Street": it is the core infrastructure for all hot topics like DeFi, RWA, and Stablecoins. Especially after the passage of the GENIUS act, hundreds of trillions of stablecoins will almost all run on Ethereum. The status of ETH may be akin to the role of "English" in the international market.

Third Tier: Potential ETF Stocks
SOL, #XRP, #DOGE, #LTC , and BNB are all star projects with potential ETF themes or already on the crypto treasury list.
SOL is the "hexagon warrior," covering DeFi, Meme, AI, RWA, and DEPIN entirely, and ETFs are already trading;
$XRP is tied to SWIFT alternatives, with political and business resources stable as a rock;
DOGE is the original Meme, the favorite of Musk;
#BNB is the only token that can harvest platform value and works closely with the Trump family;
LTC is the "digital silver," a 15-year-old project that wins half the battle with consensus;
Although policy support is slightly weaker than ETH, these few will not perform poorly during sector rotations.

Fourth Tier: ETF Applications + Heavy Treasury Holdings
$ADA , $AVAX, $APT, #SUI, $DOT, #FIL, $NEAR, #TRX, $BONK, $TRUMP, etc. Although these have not yet formed a trend, they qualify as "big capital willing to take a look." Once the ETFs are approved, this batch of altcoins may suddenly take off.
Fifth Tier: On-chain DeFi/RWA Core Assets
For example, $AAVE, $UNI , #ldo , $ENA, $JUP, #ONDO, etc. After the GENIUS implementation, these projects will undertake a large amount of on-chain exchanges and financial funds, serving as the "real estate stocks" within DeFi infrastructure.

In the last segment, old altcoins/CEX speculative coins—run as early as possible
These coins have poor liquidity, scattered teams, and lack innovation; each market cycle is just a "pretend not to be dead." Once the market declines, they will drop the hardest. It is recommended to directly cut losses and switch to mainstream assets without attachment.
As the market stands now, it is no longer a question of "is it a bull market," but rather, "which vehicle are you riding on?"
#NFT板块领涨 #山寨季來了？

With Trump's rise to power, these 5 cryptocurrencies may experience an explosion, a rare opportunity:

1. $DOGE : Current price is $0.43, a must-have in your portfolio. Musk's support for $DOGE is increasingly evident, even using "D.O.G.E" as an abbreviation for a new government department. With high trading volume and strong liquidity, it may see a significant increase next month, making it a good time to invest.
2. $PNUT : Previously surged 400% in two days due to its association with Trump, current price is $1.38, with low volatility. As Trump takes office, related interest is expected to rise again, suggesting gradual accumulation at lower levels, anticipating a second surge.
3. $PEPE : A popular project combining DeFi and NFT, with potential comparable to Shiba Inu. Although it is not yet the best time to invest, it is worth continuous attention, and one should act when opportunities to enter at lower levels arise.
4. $Puppies: A Musk concept coin, with over 15,000 holding addresses, a market cap of $12 million, and after a six-month consolidation, the community remains strong, potentially becoming the brightest new star by the end of 2024.
Reasonable layout and seizing opportunities could be the turning point for wealth!
5. $XRP: Actively supporting Trump, recently surged to $2.9, a 3-year high, current price of $2.33 still holds attraction. If the Trump administration adopts it as a payment tool, the future growth potential is incalculable.

#山寨季怎么布局？

#sol
This wave is quite impressive, the double bottom structure is basically formed, as long as we push through the neck line, it wouldn't be surprising to surge up to 170 dollars.
On-chain metrics also align, HODLer selling pressure has clearly eased, NUPL has fallen into the "surrender zone", which historically is often a sign before a rebound.
Of course, if we can't break through here, a pullback to 128–132 is also normal, fortunately, there is some minor support at 133–137, and the overall bullish logic hasn't been broken. Futures sentiment is a bit mixed, but the continued inflow into ETFs still provides a layer of safety at the bottom.

Are market benefits coming one after another? Let's summarize:

📍 QT declares an end
Theoretically, it should be a delayed benefit, but coupled with previous continuous sell-offs, the market directly treats it as an immediate spark.

📍 Bank of America opens up crypto allocation
Wealth advisors can suggest clients allocate 1%-4% of assets into crypto, managing funds of $6.4 trillion, which is highly valuable.

📍 Vanguard Group's 180° stance reversal
From a critic to a distributor, opening up BlackRock ETF trading, ETF transactions surged 20%-30% compared to last week, with an increase of $1 billion.
Don't forget—Vanguard manages $11 trillion.

📍 SEC announces January start for crypto innovation exemption
This is a clear regulatory support, directly reducing institutional uncertainty, favorable for large-scale institutional entry, this is a significant point.

📍 Musk continues to support BTC
Predicting that the 38T crisis may boost BTC, he said a few days ago that BTC is an energy currency, and added more fuel last night.

📍 Trump hints at Fed Chair nominee=Hassett
Polymarket probability 86%. Hassett is absolutely pro-crypto, supporting BTC strategic reserves, supporting miners, criticizing SEC regulation, and as soon as he takes office, it will be a favorable button.
#美SEC推动加密创新监管

I have condensed the market conditions from 25.12 to 26.Q1 into 4 scenarios.
First, let me share my personal view — I am bullish, but the pace may be quite torturous.

① Main upward trend explosion (52%)
PCE is mild, Japan only talks without real rate hikes, MSCI drags again, BTC directly spikes to 93k-94k → Touching 100k by Christmas, waiting for January when U.S. banks will support, institutional main upward trend takes off, Q1 pushing to 130k-160k is not exaggerated.

② Realistic oscillation upward (28%)
Japan symbolically raises rates once, MSCI normal exclusion, BTC retraces to 84k-87k before rising again, a V rebound in January-February, and regaining 100k in spring.

③ More painful but sweeter deep adjustment (15%)

PCE is relatively hot, Japan raises rates twice, MSCI collectively cuts, the market is likely to explore 60k-65k, but it will attract institutions and sovereign funds for ultimate bottom fishing, and the bull market gate will be fully opened in 2026 Q2.

④ Black swan version (5%)

The Federal Reserve suddenly does not cut rates + Trump throws out negative news, BTC may briefly break 60k, but such scenarios require a plethora of bad news, with very low probability.

BTC, ETH, SOL make a strong comeback! BTC rose over 6% in a single day, with significant contributions from the Vanguard Group's open crypto ETF, which saw trading volume exceed 1 billion within the first half hour of opening. Sentiment has fully recovered.
Today's market highlights:

1. Hassett highly likely to become the Chairman of the Federal Reserve

Trump has pushed the announcement to early next year, with Polymarket giving an 85% probability. Hassett himself is part of the 'crypto-friendly faction,' which is a long-term positive for the crypto industry.

2. STABLE token model announced
Total supply of 100 billion, not used for Gas, 10% allocated for deposits and exchange activities, suggesting that exchange activities are likely to ramp up soon.

3. Predictive markets set to explode
Kalshi raised 1 billion with a valuation of 11 billion. The three major players in prediction markets: Polymarket / Kalshi / Opiniøn, with the trend toward compliance becoming increasingly clear.

4. OKX delists some old coins
Trading pairs like ACA, CLV, FOXY, PSTAKE, RACA will be delisted, with a clear trend of cleaning up existing projects.

5. ZEC continues to adjust
It previously rose by 10 times, and funds are starting to rotate out, normalizing sentiment.

6. PIPPIN remains strong
Market cap exceeds 218 million, contract fee rate remains at -0.2%, still experiencing short squeezes, be aware of the risks.

7. SEC signals 'crypto pivot'
Chairman Paul Atkins: The crypto innovation exemption will be issued within about a month, and the regulatory stance has officially shifted to support.

8. Michael Burry again criticizes BTC
He claims, 'Bitcoin is as worthless as tulips.' This indicates that the traditional market's consensus on BTC's value has not yet fully taken hold.
#加密市场回调

Last night the market fell again, currently a small rebound!
Today's market hot spots to pay attention to:

1⃣ #BTC Stop falling and rebound: Last night it once dipped down, but ultimately held its ground, the lower end has stopped falling, currently rebounding to 86500, continue to observe strength and weakness.
2⃣ #ETH Passive following: Following the fluctuations of Bitcoin, even 2800 has been lost, the DAT funding situation is not great, can only wait and see the reaction.
3⃣ #SOL Back to the crash zone: The price has touched the crash range from last Friday, indicating that the bottom isn't going to come out so quickly, still be cautious.

4⃣ $pippin Surging against the trend: Market value of 191 million, nearly 6 times increase in two weeks, Binance contract rate continues to be negative, short sellers are being forced to cover.
5⃣ $GIGGLE Poor performance: Binance completed a donation + destruction of 970,000 U, but the market ignored it, dropping more than 30%.
6⃣ $MON Continual decline: Market cap remains at 2.8 billion, price is only slightly higher than Coinbase's public price, even CB can't support high market cap, this is something to be cautious about.
7⃣ BMNR continues to hard buy ETH: Positions exceed 3%, target of 5% is getting closer, average price 4022, currently facing huge losses, Tom Lee is indeed putting real money in.

8⃣ "Micro strategies" crash: MSTR hits a new low, BMNR continues to sell off, indicating that U.S. stock market funds' enthusiasm for the crypto track has clearly waned.
9⃣ Kalshi migrates to Solana: The prediction market runs directly on-chain, which is positive for the Sol ecosystem and also benefits the Sol circle relying on the MEME effect.
🔟 Gold & Silver take off: Gold PAXG returns to 4238, silver skyrockets to 58.23, a historical high, precious metals become a safe haven for risk.

This week's macro fundamentals revolve around three major events, all tied to "interest rate cut expectations," with sentiment potentially igniting or extinguishing at any moment:

① Powell's speeches from 12/2 to 12/5
Dovish probability is higher (≈65%). As long as he continues to hint at rate cuts and downplays inflation concerns, BTC/ETH will be directly ignited.
However, if he suddenly turns hawkish (≈35%), the dollar will strengthen, and the crypto market may face short-term pressure.

② ADP small non-farm (12/3)
Below expectations = positive (≈60%), indicating a cooling job market and reduced rate hike concerns.
Above 200,000 = negative (≈40%), and rate cut expectations will be dampened.

③ The main event: December non-farm NFP (12/5)
Market expectation is about 200,000.
Actual < 180,000 → Clear job market cooling → Rate cut probability soars to 80%+ → Crypto market directly cheers (positive ≈55%).
220,000 → Strengthening the “soft landing” narrative → Cooling of liquidity expectations → The crypto market may see a 10%+ pullback (negative ≈45%).

Overall:
This week is all about “employment and inflation determining the outcome.” The Federal Reserve's dovish probability slightly prevails; as long as the direction is consistent, BTC really has a chance to test 100,000; but if it turns hawkish, a short-term pullback is also quite normal.

In summary: Volatility will be significant, making quick profits and quick losses both possible.

$TST Today's top gainers are truly two extremes; the old coins are at the bottom, while the new coins are climbing high!
Bitcoin and Ethereum have once again hit the bottom; today I encouraged some friends in the circle to chase a purchase of TST and Yuyue, and recently I've been surviving on small Yuyue orders!
Don't be too greedy; even Xiaomi is still just rice. The editor emphasizes stability! If you trust, come on!!!

12.1 The five major mainstream currencies lead the market to test the bottom again!
The key for Bitcoin this time is whether it can hold above 80,000. If it falls below, we need to continue looking for support; if it holds, there is a high probability it will confirm a second test.

However, the macro environment is not very friendly right now—the US-Venezuela conflict and Japan's interest rate hike expectations are adding pressure to the market. No one can confidently predict how the market will move, but risks must be managed well.
#加密市场观察

When Americans have a holiday for Thanksgiving, the market becomes quiet again.
However, this year's market sentiment is completely opposite to last year:
Last year it rose from 40,000 to 90,000, feeling great; this year it fell from 126,000 back to 90,000, naturally giving off a bear flavor.

Old investors have seen many ups and downs, and a 30% drop is really nothing, a rebound is just waiting for good news. Whether Bitcoin can create a new ATH is another story; even if it returns to 100,000 first, it would be enough to support a new narrative, but currently, the market hasn't seen a real '2020-level' big story yet.

The biggest change this round is: the funds are becoming more and more professional, no longer falling for empty promises, focusing more on whether projects can be self-sustaining. Instead, hype, which can strongly generate profits, stabilizes high FDV; meme coins, blue chips, and new narratives have all turned into a 'quick in and out' play. If you really want to hold long-term, then focus on the data—check defillama to see which protocols are truly profitable, the top ten batch (Tether, Circle, Hype, Pump, TRX, EdgeX…) is where the value lies. Regardless of whether tokens are issued or not, allocate to projects that can be profitable in the long run; whether the altcoin season comes or not, there’s no loss.

On the other hand, those 'top narrative' storytellers, if they lack quantitative indicators, basically just pump once and then decline. Blast is a living textbook.
This round of market, to put it simply, is just one sentence—don't fall in love, talk about profit rates.
#加密市场观察

$MBL Brothers, let's go! We finally caught up with the first train! We can evacuate now, don't be too greedy!

$ETH ETH The four-hour chart still shows a standard upward structure, with highs and lows consistently rising. Each breakthrough of the previous high is accompanied by a large bullish candle and increased volume. However, the price is currently stuck around $3000, which is exactly a dense trading zone, indicating significant resistance. After the large bullish candle on the early morning of the 27th, several subsequent candles have been small doji, and the momentum for breaking new highs has clearly weakened, with the pace slowing down.

My personal judgment: There is a high probability that a pullback will occur on the four-hour chart, with initial support at 2960, followed by 2890, and then 2800; however, the overall direction remains bullish and the upward trend is unchanged. Just maintain the pace.

$TURBO hourly chart can take a long position now!

Now Binance Alpha has come to an end, there's nothing much to play with!

Today's market highlights:

1⃣ Three major mainstream cryptocurrencies stabilized: #BTC #ETH #SOL first dropped and then rebounded, the selling pressure was held. U.S. stocks rose, but Crypto concept stocks fell across the board; the U.S. stock market will also close on the 27th, pay attention to the rhythm.
2⃣ MON continues to soar: $MON pulled up to above 0.047U, compared to the public sale price on CB, it has risen over 80%, the trend directly gives a sense of “bull market déjà vu.”
3⃣ ETF enters a frenzy mode: U.S. altcoin spot ETFs are flooding the market, more than 100 are expected to enter in the next six months, which is almost impossible in a bear market.

4⃣ Polymarket makes a big step forward in compliance: approved by the CFTC to amend the designated order, can enter the U.S. market in an intermediary way, the position in the prediction market officially jumps.
5⃣ BSC shows slight warming: #VulgarPenguin, #BNBHolder were ignited by Binance Alpha, surged briefly, BSC MEME sector took a slight “breath.”
6⃣ Will the Federal Reserve's situation change?: Hassett has become a popular candidate for the new Federal Reserve chairman, highly in sync with Trump's policies, the market interprets it as “the direction is about to change.”

7⃣ IRYS performs poorly: $IRYS went live on Binance Alpha with a market cap of about 55 million, the heat and performance of the storage sector are below expectations.
8⃣ Multicoin crazily buys AAVE: purchased over 60 million dollars of AAVE in half a month, still at a loss of 13.5 million U.S. dollars. $AAVE : I have worked very hard.
9⃣ BTC sharp ratio falls below 0: the weakest level since the FTX collapse, historically this is often a precursor to a reversal, but it requires “sitting for a while” to see the results.

#加密市场反弹

#sol
Brave people enjoy the world first!
This wave at this position is a little bit, betting on this round's phase rebound!

Today's market hot spots overview:

1⃣#BTC/#ETH/#SOL three major rebounds are fierce, especially ETH and SOL are strong; the Nasdaq surged 2.7%, and cryptocurrency concept stocks followed suit, with short-term market sentiment warming up.

2⃣ Interest rate cut bets rise: The probability of a 25bp rate cut in December on Polymarket has skyrocketed to ~81%, with a macro bullish sentiment becoming the catalyst for this round of market.

3⃣ Giants bet on AI: Trump promotes the "Genesis Mission" + Amazon rumored to invest at a level of $500 billion in AI, with AI and computing power concepts ignited, the stock market's lifeline drives crypto sentiment.

4⃣ MON fluctuates after launch: The #MON launched on Coinbase first broke its initial price and then rebounded; currently, the market cap is fluctuating, with both long and short positions on the contract side in contention.

5⃣ ETFs launched but mixed performance: #XRP/#DOGE and others have successively launched spot ETFs, but the price performance is mediocre; don't expect ETFs to immediately push prices up.

6⃣ Explosive products & selling pressure reminder: #AVICI surged significantly in one month, and #META is hot; however, Hyperliquid will unlock a large amount of #HYPE (approximately $312 million) on 11/29, and short-term selling pressure needs to be guarded against.

7⃣ WLFI/whale actions: WLFI surged back, with a new wallet on-chain spending big money to buy within three days (reported by 0xEFA1), short-term sentiment has been ignited, be aware of the risk of being led by the rhythm.

8⃣ Institutional buying and floating losses: Multicoin bought AAVE heavily (accumulating tens of millions of dollars), but currently still has floating losses; BitMine continues to increase its ETH position. Institutions are laying out but there are also fluctuations.
9⃣ Off-market voices: Some commentators/professionals have started to reduce positions (e.g., Vida sold part of BTC), and the market still has a short-term "fear of heights" sentiment; don't forget risk management.

Sentiment is warming but not mindless rising—macro + AI positive factors boost liquidity, hot varieties are rapidly amplified, and short-term following should be quick in and out, with heavy positions still divided into batches.

Ethereum is still in a downtrend, and the signal for a stop is not very clear.
The range of $2000–4956 is the area for a rebound, as well as the location where bulls are intensively building positions, providing stable support.
Bitcoin's daily line has just touched the key support near 80,000, giving a decent stop signal; Ethereum 12.3 has upgraded in Osaka, resulting in faster speeds and lower costs.

Overall, it is highly likely that the future will mainly consist of fluctuations. If you have spot holdings, don't rush to sell; hold steady and see how the market moves.

The global market is plunging together; it's not that the cryptocurrency market is weak, but rather a liquidity crisis with the sentiment of 'who can cash out runs first': U.S. stocks, gold, A-shares, and Hong Kong stocks are all crashing, and cash has become the only safe haven.

This round of the cryptocurrency market has been hit hard, primarily due to the double whammy of ETF + DAT.
ETFs have seen continuous large outflows, with another $900 million leaving last night; DAT is even more outrageous, selling while it drops, and dropping while it sells, dragging the entire market into a death spiral. They pulled during the bull market and smashed during the bear market; aside from MSTR still standing, the others have basically been beaten back to their original state.

Whales are also fleeing; the large amounts of cryptocurrency confiscated by the government can be auctioned off at any time to crash the market. Historical whales are being caught, privacy is quickly becoming a joke, and instead, it has pushed privacy coins like ZEC into the spotlight.

On the contrary, altcoins are holding up without panic selling; project teams and market makers are clearly reluctant to sell further—they also feel it's cheap. As long as Bitcoin stops falling, altcoins will be the first to rebound.
In December, I still expect a decent market, but the only projects worth buying are those that can generate revenue; don't cling to trash projects.

The primary market has been even worse during this time: bob has broken its issue price, gaib nil's market makers have fled, monad's fundraising has hit a wall, and even major exchanges' initial offerings have collectively broken their issue prices.

Currently, the only two stable strategies are:
Do not touch leverage and buy gradually on dips.
The bottom has not yet arrived; holding on stubbornly will only turn you into cannon fodder.
#美国非农数据超预期