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On December 11th, analyst Anna Wong said: “I think this policy statement and the updated forecast are generally leaning towards being accommodative (dovish), but there are also hints of tightening (hawkish) embedded within. On the accommodative side, the committee has significantly raised its economic growth expectations, while inflation expectations have been slightly adjusted downward, and the 'dot plot' hasn’t changed. The Federal Open Market Committee also mentioned that it will start buying reserves.

On the other hand, there is a signal in the policy statement indicating that the committee intends to keep interest rates unchanged for a long time.” She continued: “Although the 'dot plot' shows only one rate cut in 2026, the market is guessing there will be two cuts; however, we believe the Federal Reserve will actually cut by 100 basis points next year. Why? Because we expect wage growth to slow down, and it doesn’t seem like inflation will suddenly spike again in the first half of 2026.”

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On December 11, thehill reported that senators plan to resolve key differences in the legislation regulating the cryptocurrency industry during the remaining working days of this year, so that the bill can pass out of committee after several months of discussion. Although the Democrats want to modify the draft, and legislators will be leaving town for the holidays in a few days, Republicans are determined to review and amend the cryptocurrency market structure legislation next week.

An industry insider familiar with the legislative process of market structure stated, "Time is too tight. Realistically, there are about 48 hours left to determine whether this bill can move forward next week."
The main leader of cryptocurrency legislation, Wyoming Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis, said on Tuesday that her goal is to release an updated draft that she believes is the "best outcome so far" by this weekend, and to review and amend the bill next week. She stated at the Blockchain Association policy summit: "I feel like we are at a critical point now, it's best to come up with a proposal, finish the review and amendments next week, and everyone can enjoy a good break over the Christmas holiday."

Market conditions change every day, and one shouldn't be too tense; if you always feel like you're a step behind and are afraid of being disturbed by market noise, feel free to chat with L. #加密市场观察

On December 11, Coindesk reported that Bhutan is currently busy expanding its national blockchain strategy. They have launched a gold-backed digital token called TER, issued by Gelephu Mindfulness City and supported by a national sovereignty framework.

The email announcement on Thursday stated that the TER token aims to bridge traditional value preservation methods and blockchain finance. This token will be issued on the Solana chain, with distribution and custody managed by Bhutan's first licensed digital bank, DK Bank.

In the first phase, investors will be able to purchase TER directly through DK Bank, allowing them to experience the familiarity of buying traditional assets alongside the transparency of on-chain ownership.

The announcement also mentioned that TER aims to provide international investors with a convenient and user-friendly gold tokenization version, featuring digital custody and global transfer capabilities.

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On December 11, the Dutch International Bank stated that the market is speculating that the Federal Reserve will have to lower interest rates by another 50 basis points in 2026. However, looking at the current economic situation, it is still growing, the unemployment rate is low, the stock market is nearing historical highs, and the inflation rate is closer to 3%, which is still a distance from the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. It feels like there is no need for the Federal Reserve to further loosen its policies.

However, the Dutch International Bank also believes that the inflation situation in the coming months may become more favorable for interest rate cuts, providing more reasons for those advocating for loose policies to take action. Although the threat of tariffs still exists, its impact is not as immediate or significant as many worry. This allows more time for situations like falling energy prices, slow rent increases, and modest wage growth to help lower inflation. The Dutch International Bank also believes that inflation will drop to around 2% faster than the Federal Reserve expects.

Additionally, the Federal Reserve has a dual mandate, and currently, the employment aspect looks more concerning (it's worth noting that Powell mentioned the Federal Reserve thinks that the employment growth data in recent months has been overstated by 60,000). Therefore, the Dutch International Bank predicts that the Federal Reserve will still cut interest rates twice in 2026, once in March and once in June, with each cut being 25 basis points. #美联储降息

On December 11, Mitsubishi UFJ disclosed that the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut was the result of 9 votes in favor and 3 votes against, reducing the rate by 25 basis points. They also acknowledged that the labor market is gradually weakening, and Powell specifically mentioned the risk of a significant downturn in the labor market.

When it comes to inflation, the Federal Reserve stated that if no new tariffs are imposed, it may take until the first quarter of 2026 for commodity prices to peak. However, there is still a risk that inflation could remain high. Powell also hinted that interest rate hikes are not currently planned, but the FOMC members have not reached a consensus on whether to maintain rates or continue cutting them.

Looking at the latest dot plot, the Federal Reserve indicated that it plans to cut rates once in 2026, which is more than the previous guess of about a 55 basis point reduction, implying more than two rate cuts and leaning towards a 'hawkish' stance. Powell also mentioned that the Federal Reserve's current situation is good, allowing them to patiently observe how the U.S. economy progresses.

Looking ahead, the policy direction of the Federal Reserve in the second half of next year may become complicated due to leadership changes, increasing market uncertainty. #美联储降息

On December 11th, the Federal Reserve made a big move again, announcing another 25 basis points rate cut, bringing the interest rate range directly to 3.50%-3.75%. This is already the third rate cut this year. As soon as the news came out, the crypto market became lively, with Bitcoin's price soaring to $94,500, only to quickly drop below $90,000 after a brief excitement.

Trump, that old man, didn't hold back, directly firing shots, saying this rate cut was too small and should have been doubled, while also hinting at a possible change in the Federal Reserve chair.

Analysts from BiyaPay also stated that this rate cut did not change the market's uncertainty about the future economy and inflation; in fact, opinions have become even more divided. In the short term, the price fluctuations of Bitcoin and other digital currencies are expected to continue to amplify. So, friends using BiyaPay to trade USDT for U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks futures, and digital assets should be cautious. Leverage and positions must be controlled reasonably; don't get too excited and chase highs and sell lows, or you could suffer significant losses!

If you feel helpless and confused about trading right now and want to learn more knowledge and cutting-edge information, follow me, and I will help you not get lost in the transition between bull and bear markets.
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On December 11, Benjamin Melman, CEO of asset management company Edmond de Rothschild, directly stated that the European Central Bank raising interest rates in 2026 is basically impossible, saying, "We don't believe they will do that at all." He explained that the German economy has been weak for several years, and only now is it starting to implement large-scale fiscal expansion plans. The fiscal situation in France is also quite dire; if the European Central Bank rushes to raise interest rates during such a time, it would be a crazy operation that is simply "mind-blowingly foolish." Moreover, according to data from LSEG, the money market is not taking the European Central Bank's interest rate hike in 2026 seriously at all, and has not priced this in. #美联储降息

On December 11, He Yi responded on platform X to someone asking about how to become a Binance editor. She directly said that this job has extremely high risks; previous editors have been sent in, and one is currently under investigation. Moreover, someone is also targeting her WeChat, and she is currently dealing with this matter. She also advised everyone not to keep looking at official accounts or editors for entertainment, as she will no longer pay attention to such humorous memes in the future. #美联储降息

On December 11th, at the Solana Breakpoint 2025 conference, Solana Foundation Chair Lily Liu said many inspiring things.

She stated that Solana is the first blockchain platform to establish a policy research institute. Given the current situation, every organization must quickly develop a digital asset strategy, or they will fall behind. Many institutions are starting to flock to the blockchain field, and quite a few have chosen Solana. For instance, Western Union processes over $60 billion in remittance services annually, and they chose Solana for such a large-scale operation. Additionally, Pfizer has a merchant payment volume that reaches up to $20 trillion every year, and they also selected Solana. Other institutions, seeing this, are following suit.

Another significant event this year is the ETF. The physically-backed Solana staking ETF has finally arrived, making a big splash in the Solana ecosystem about six weeks ago. In just six weeks, the assets under management have nearly reached $1 billion. While the overall market has not been performing well, Solana has seen a net inflow of funds for three consecutive weeks. In the U.S. market alone, six physically-backed Solana staking ETFs have already been launched.

This year, there's also a somewhat controversial but quite important topic, which is DAT (Decentralized Asset Treasury). Many people think DAT is just a short-term liquidity provision tool, but Solana does not see it that way. Solana is one of the few platforms that allows enterprises to build at both the infrastructure and asset levels. Solana believes that DAT will become a long-term ecosystem company that can serve as a bridge, connecting Solana with the public market, building the infrastructure and asset management systems, and integrating all these functions together. This prospect is truly exciting to think about!

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Ethereum is facing a "super liquidation test"! Both sides are over a billion dollars in liquidation "danger zones"!

According to the latest Coinglass data, Ethereum (ETH) has reached a particularly sensitive price range, and regardless of whether the market rises or falls, breaking through key price levels will trigger a liquidation wave of over a billion dollars.

First, the lower side: $3158 is a particularly critical price, which is a danger zone for bulls. If the ETH price falls below this line, it would be serious, as $1.43 billion in long positions would be forced to liquidate. This means that many leveraged long traders have their stop-loss or liquidation points concentrated at this position. Once it breaks, it will trigger a "domino effect liquidation," and the speed of price decline could accelerate by more than twice; this price level is roughly the key defense line for whether the bulls can withstand.

Now let's look at the upper side: $3485 is the danger zone for bears. If the ETH price breaks through this price, then $1.03 billion in short positions would have to be liquidated. Currently, many shorts are concentrated in the range of $3480 to $3500. If this range is broken, it will trigger a short squeeze, and the price could suddenly surge above $3600. This price level is the key breakthrough point for whether ETH can accelerate its rise.

Currently, ETH's price is in the range of $3158 to $3485, with a total liquidation amount of $2.46 billion. In this massive liquidation range, the market will certainly not be calm, and funds will not flow slowly; the market will definitely be forcibly turned into a trend with a clear direction. Simply put, the result of the liquidation will determine which direction the market goes, rather than what the traders themselves can decide; this situation is too exciting!

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《Investment Reversal Revealed: Will Gold Dominate in 2025 while Bitcoin's 'Digital Gold' Myth Collapses?》

This year, the investment market has truly staged an unexpected 'reversal drama'! According to news from The Economic Times and LiveMint this week, traditional gold will become a superstar in the investment world by 2025, with prices skyrocketing over 55%, trading above $4200 per ounce. In contrast, Bitcoin (BTC), which used to shine brightly, has performed poorly this year, recently falling from its peak, with an annual return now negative, down 1.2%, making it the worst performer among major assets.

Why is this happening? Analysts say that the unclear global geopolitical situation, combined with expectations of interest rate cuts, has led funds to flock towards 'real safe-haven assets'. When Bitcoin recently retraced to the range of $80,000 to $90,000, investors seemed more inclined to buy time-tested real gold. Does this mean the term 'digital gold' has lost its meaning? Or is now the perfect time to buy Bitcoin at a low? Opinions in the market are highly divided. But it must be acknowledged that this year, 'traditional gold' has indeed given the crypto world a severe slap in the face. #美联储降息

Stop dreaming! The year 2026 is definitely not the kind of super bull market that can make cryptocurrencies soar as you fantasize; instead, it is highly likely to become the most terrifying "capital flight" disaster scene in cryptocurrency history.

Now many people are celebrating in advance, naively thinking that the Federal Reserve will act like a benefactor, crazily printing money and flooding the market. Wake up! The market has long fully priced in expectations for loose policies and has become overly optimistic.

Next year's inflation data will slightly rebound; this is almost a certainty. By then, the Federal Reserve will definitely no longer pretend to be "moderate" and will immediately tighten monetary policy, insisting on maintaining high interest rates for a long time.

The bull market that you are eagerly anticipating, driven by interest rate cuts, will instantly turn into a bear market with massive capital outflows. The current cryptocurrency market relies entirely on unreliable expectations and extremely high leverage; once those expectations collapse, it will not be a minor pullback but will trigger a large-scale deleveraging storm.

Those Layer 2 projects that have no real value and are merely hyped by venture capital firms spinning stories, along with some cryptocurrencies claiming to be AI, will become worthless in an environment of capital exhaustion.

Don't be fooled by those seemingly rising false signals on the candlestick charts; they are intentionally created by major funds to lure you into becoming bag holders. In 2026, the most important thing is not to think about how to get rich overnight, but how to survive in this market.

Holding cash is the most prudent strategy. Those who are still heavily invested in unknown altcoins, hoping to make a fortune next year, are actually making a joke with their own money; it's no different from running recklessly on the edge of a cliff without any protection.

The market has experienced a violent crash, with blood flowing like a river. Soon I will prepare some strong coins suitable for bottom fishing as a recovery plan. Brothers and sisters who want to follow the strategy can join the chat room. #ETH走势分析

Many brothers were confused when looking at the market this morning. The news says the Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates, yet $BTC not only didn't rise but fell instead, is the news false? Don't rush, let's translate the financial jargon into plain language.

The so-called good news was already anticipated by the market. A month and a half ago, everyone guessed that this time the interest rate would be cut by 25 basis points, and smart money bought in advance; once the news was announced, they profited and sold off, causing $BTC to naturally drop.

The future 'good days' are gone, which is key to the crash. Originally, everyone was looking forward to the Federal Reserve continuously cutting rates and flooding the market in 2026, leading to a bull market in the crypto world. However, the dot plot shows only one rate cut in 2026, making money harder to obtain, costs of funds high, and the bull market engine half stalled, prompting bulls to quickly flee.

There is disagreement within the Federal Reserve, with hawks rising. In this interest rate cut vote, 3 members opposed, and some even advocated against a cut, indicating concerns about inflation returning, especially considering the impact of Trump's policies. As long as someone shouts 'Don't print money', it poses a threat to $BTC, which relies on liquidity, and everyone fears this may be the last interest rate cut for some time.

In summary, the sustained flooding of money that everyone expected has turned into only one rate cut in 2026, transforming the 'feast' into 'leftovers', and even during the rate cut, there are internal disputes within the Federal Reserve. The market is not afraid of bad news, but rather of not meeting expectations; this rate cut appears to win face but actually loses future expectations, hence the sharp drop in $BTC.

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On December 11, Sygnum released the "2025 Asia-Pacific High Net Worth Individuals Report," which mentioned that due to optimism about the future development of cryptocurrencies over the next two to five years, 60% of Asian high net worth individuals (HNWIs, defined as wealthy individuals with investable assets over $1 million) plan to increase their investments in cryptocurrencies. This survey targeted 270 high net worth individuals and professional investors with over ten years of experience from ten countries in the Asia-Pacific region (mainly Singapore, as well as Hong Kong, Indonesia, South Korea, and Thailand).

The survey found that 87% of Asian high net worth individuals have already purchased cryptocurrencies, with nearly half of them investing more than 10%, averaging about 17% of their portfolios in cryptocurrencies.

80% of respondents hold tokens from blockchain protocols such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. 56% stated that they invest in cryptocurrencies primarily to diversify their portfolios.

The survey results also showed that as many as 90% of high net worth individuals feel that digital assets are particularly important for long-term wealth preservation and estate planning, not just for speculation.

Gerald Goh, co-founder of Sygnum, said: "Currently, the proportion of high net worth individuals investing in cryptocurrencies has reached 17%, indicating that their mindset is completely different from the 'get rich quick' mentality of 2017. These individuals are not here to speculate; they plan to invest for 10 to 20 years, thinking about passing on wealth to the next generation. Digital assets have now established a foothold in the private wealth circle in the Asia-Pacific region. Although there are some uncertainties in the short term, we still see the pace of buying digital assets accelerating, mainly because people want to diversify their portfolios, plan for intergenerational wealth, and there is a demand for institutional-level products."

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On December 11th, there was a Chinese analyst specializing in cryptocurrency analysis (such as Bitcoin) named Banmuxia, who published an article saying:

"Earlier this morning, the price of Bitcoin surged, but not by much. Looking at its upward trend starting from $80,500, it resembles a guiding wedge (a pattern where the price fluctuates but generally trends upward).

Additionally, the price of Bitcoin has strong support in the range of $89,000 to $90,000, meaning that if the price drops to this level, it may not easily fall further.

Market predictions suggest that in the next month, Bitcoin could rise to a range of $103,500 to $112,500. However, this upward journey may not be smooth, and there will likely be many twists and turns along the way."

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Jito's co-founder and CEO buffalu boldly stated at the Solana Breakpoint conference: Solana has clearly won in terms of speed, it's too obvious! He said: "In the past few years, the transaction volume that Solana can handle per second has directly increased sixfold, thanks to the engineers in the ecosystem and those incredibly talented application developers working hard together.

Take a look at the chart below, Solana's block space has been increasing over the years. At the beginning of this year, the computational limit for each block was around 48 million computational units, which later increased to 50 million and 60 million. It is expected that by the beginning of next year, this number could directly jump to 100 million computational units, and it will continue to rise exponentially!"#美联储降息

Is there another large sell-off? 20,074,500 WLFI (worth approximately $3.04 million) has just been transferred to Coinbase!

Arkham's latest monitoring detected:

At 21:09, an address 0xCf01… directly transferred 20,074,500 WLFI, worth approximately $3,046,300 to Coinbase.

What signal does this release?

First, there is clearly potential selling pressure. WLFI has recently seen several tens of millions being transferred to Coinbase multiple times, and tonight another 20,074,500 has been added, indicating that it may be the same large holders or institutions continuously reducing their positions, or it could be project teams or early investors gradually selling off, with a noticeable increase in the supply of WLFI in the short-term market.

Second, when viewed in conjunction with the large transfers of WLFI in the past few hours, it indicates a continuous reduction of positions. In today's tracked data, WLFI has seen large transfers multiple times, with amounts in the tens of millions, and now another 20 million level transfer. In a short period, more than 100 million WLFI has flowed into exchanges, which is not coincidental; it is a systematic movement of capital.

Third, the market is undergoing typical liquidity adjustments ahead of the FOMC meeting. BTC, ETH, SOL, and others have also shown behavior of transferring to CEX in preparation for selling, with Binance experiencing a net outflow of 253 million USDT within 24 hours. Now WLFI has followed this trend, indicating that the market is comprehensively reducing risks in preparation for the FOMC meeting.

If you're still confused about how to operate? Click on my avatar to follow me. This market phase will see more 100x coins explode; it's better to grasp it in the chat room than to guess! #美联储降息

On December 11th, at the Solana Breakpoint 2025 conference, Solana Foundation Chair Lily Liu said the following:

Solana is the first blockchain platform to establish a policy research institute. Nowadays, for every organization, formulating a digital asset strategy is a must. Many organizations have started to enter the blockchain field, and they have all chosen Solana. Take Western Union, for example; it processes over $60 billion in remittance business each year, and it has chosen Solana. Then there's Pfizer, which processes $20 trillion in merchant payments annually, and it has also chosen Solana. Other organizations are following suit and choosing Solana.

Another major event this year is the ETF. The physically-backed Solana staking ETFs have finally arrived, entering the Solana ecosystem on a large scale about six weeks ago. In just these six weeks, the assets under management have nearly reached $1 billion. Even when the overall market performance has been lackluster, we have seen net inflows for three consecutive weeks. In the U.S. market alone, six physically-backed Solana staking ETFs have already been listed.

This year, there's also a quite controversial important topic: DAT (Decentralized Asset Treasury). Many people think that DAT is just a short-term liquidity tool, but we don't see it that way. Because Solana is one of the few platforms that allows businesses to build at both the infrastructure and asset levels. We believe that DAT will be a long-term ecosystem company; they can serve as a bridge connecting Solana and the public market, while also building infrastructure and asset management systems, integrating all these functions together.

Blindly trading ultimately results in losses greater than gains; awareness determines height. Follow me for daily sharing of trading logic and to help you find opportunities for flipping your capital! #加密市场观察