时光预言机i

Just set up a Binance fan group

Mainly daily market analysis, contract recommendations, US stock analysis, etc.

Everyone is welcome to click the link below to join!

时光的粉丝群

I think tonight’s CPI will meet expectations, $BTC
After it broke through 77k yesterday, it didn’t keep falling all the way down; instead, it slowly consolidated and then rose, showing that in the short term the selling pressure has turned into buy orders. In the evening, it should dip with a brief downward wick and then rise!

Welcome everyone to my square chat group

The August non-farm payrolls released today were far above expectations, with non-farm new employment
+162k. This is really hard to swallow, and it far exceeded expectations. It’s the classic case of “strong employment → rising rate hike expectations → pressure on risk assets.”

Gold and $BTC
started falling the moment the data came out. I happened to bet on the right direction. Just like I said earlier, the current market is all about shaking out positions back and forth; what’s needed is for retail traders to吐出筹码.

For BTC, a single non-farm report has roughly a 50/50 chance of determining the day’s up or down direction. This time, the data was a huge beat. From the chart, the short-term impact on the market is quite obvious, but what truly sets the direction will still be the subsequent CPI and the September FOMC.

Strong employment is only a “necessary but not sufficient” condition. Once the data lands, longs get quickly wiped out, and then depending on the details (unemployment rate, wages, revisions), price either bounces back or keeps drifting lower.

Retail traders are being played back and forth $BTC . The next focus is at 78k

This gold rebound is a bit beyond my expectations. I originally thought that testing the rebound from 4280 up to 4350 would be about it, but today I saw gold directly break above 4400, and it's now at 4430.

Trading volume shows no signs of weakening at all. If you bought near 4280, you can first look at the 4460 level.

#美联储加息概率升至68%

I just took a look at the CME FedWatch: the Fed’s interest rate hike probability has jumped to 68%. A week ago, it was still under 40%

What exactly happened?

The key is last week’s hawkish remarks from Waller (the “hawkish speech”), which emphasized that the 12-month PCE inflation is 3.7% and the 6-month figure is 4.1%, both clearly above the 2% target. He also reiterated that the 2% goal is “firm and fixed,” and that interest rates remain the primary policy tool.

The takeaway is that unless inflation shows a clear retreat, a September rate hike is already on the agenda.

Impact on global assets

U.S. Treasuries: The policy-sensitive 2-year yield rose noticeably (at one point to around 4.34% and above). The 10-year yield climbed to roughly 4.75%–4.79%, hitting a multi-month high. Typically, short-end gains are larger than long-end gains, the yield curve flattens, reflecting the market pricing in near-term hikes. Meanwhile, some also believe the anti-inflation resolve may suppress forward inflation expectations.

U.S. equities: On September 1, the three major indexes fell: the Dow by about -0.8%, the S&P 500 by about -0.7%, and the Nasdaq by about -1%. Growth and tech stocks are more sensitive to discount rates, so they faced more pressure. Rising yields increase firms’ financing costs and reduce the valuation of forward earnings.

U.S. dollar: Strengthened, putting pressure on other currencies.

Gold and crypto assets: Gold dropped sharply from its highs (it fell more than 3% on the day of the Waller remarks, and then continued to weaken). Bitcoin also faced simultaneous pressure. Higher real yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

Crude oil: Geopolitical conflict often pushes oil higher, but that, in turn, reinforces inflation concerns—creating a feedback loop of “oil prices → inflation expectations → rate-hike pricing.”

The market’s reaction has already provided an answer to the September hike. In the next two weeks, we’ll watch the non-farm payrolls data and CPI closely. If inflation and employment remain strong, the probability of a September hike could rise further to over 80%. If inflation clearly cools, it could swing back toward “50-50” or even lower.

We’re at another moment of big volatility—don’t make things worse. Otherwise, it’s easy to get yourself wiped out.

Gold fell again by nearly $100 after the reminder I sent yesterday. From the 4280 I mentioned, the low was 4288, and it’s now slightly rebounding.

The main buying power is still coming from users in Asia. I see many Douyin influencers calling to buy at around 4400—buying more as it drops. Those who bought near 4280 in the short term may be able to ride a rebound up to 4350.

I think this rebound won’t hold for long. At least I’ll only start buying in large quantities when it reaches around 4200.

Six years ago, BNB Chain launched its first block

Now, six years later, the things this chain can carry are completely different. In DeFi, earning yields, supporting cross-chain interactions, RWA with over 300,000 holders—tokenized funds and stocks—and many more “overnight millionaires” have appeared on the BSC chain!

And for many people, it’s been their “first-ever BNB.” My first BNB was pretty ordinary—just gas for interactions and a fee discount. Only later did it start to develop into an on-chain ecosystem. From a time when it was hard to use to now, where tens of millions of users are using it!

From transfers, Swap, and lending to stocks, Memes, and AI Agents.
The ecosystem keeps growing—BNB Chain’s story is only just beginning.

Happy 6th anniversary!

Still it’s the $SNDKB 1520 setup that successfully got bought in

Just one step away from the 1630 I said—if it moves a bit higher, you can see 1680–1700