Is ETH still looking at 5000? The big top has formed, don't be a chump!
Monthly line, just closed. 1. The continuous three candlesticks in July, August, and September, is the increase in candlestick height getting smaller? July was a large upward candlestick, and August's trading volume was slightly larger than July's. The candlestick body has already become much shorter than August's, and the upper shadow is quite long, indicating a potential volume stagnation. September's candlestick directly turned into a downward candlestick, and it was extremely low volume, proving that there are fewer people chasing high prices at high levels. Without buying pressure, how can prices rise? Looking at the comprehensive situation of July, August, and September, it shows a process of bullish exhaustion and a shift to bearish dominance. 2. The left-side horizontal resistance at 4630 was not surpassed. 3. The MACD fast and slow lines and the energy bars are both diverging. Therefore, from the monthly perspective, the outlook is severely bearish.
#BTC has reached a major peak, with sufficient evidence.
120,000 is the historical peak of this cycle. Perhaps it will hit a new high later, causing losses for those who shorted at 124,500, or it may reach a new high and trap another batch of people. I think it will only go up to about 130,000 at most. Believe it or not, we will wait and see; the following market will verify my words. The data analyzed below is sourced from Coinbase's BTC spot chart. Before starting this article, let's clarify two points; these two points are very important: First, the monthly level bottomed out in December 2022, and the bull market started vigorously in January 2023. Now, 32 candlesticks have passed, which is two years and eight months. Everyone agrees that it's a slow bull, right? Second, the price increase: the lowest price in the bear market was 15,460, and the current highest price is 124,533, which is an increase of 8.05 times, equivalent to a rise of 7.05 times. So, we are currently at a high position, and there should be no doubt about that. Alright, remember these two premises.
$BTC 2025.12.8 Bitcoin Early Market Analysis. Naked K analysis, hitting the essence directly; news can be deceptive, but K-lines do not lie. 1. Weekly Chart. In a downtrend, encountering weekly support at 85179 and an uptrend line (blue line) support, it stops falling and rebounds. The first resistance level is the opening price of the large bearish candle at 94261. The recent close was a long upper and lower shadow doji, with trading volume larger than the previous candle, indicating that bulls invested a lot of resources to attack, but the result was minimal as the opening and closing prices were basically the same, favoring the bears. Therefore, if it approaches 94200 again this week, it would be a good opportunity to short. On the 19th of this month, the Bank of Japan will hold a monetary policy meeting, and it is highly likely to raise interest rates, which will drain several trillion dollars from the market, having a nuclear-level impact on the global financial market. US stocks, gold, futures, and digital currencies will all be affected, so those going long must be cautious. 2. Daily Chart. Yesterday I published an article predicting a decline because the daily support hadn't been reached, and I couldn't find support on the 4-hour chart, but it just wouldn't drop. If it goes up, the first resistance is the downtrend line; the recent daily candles have hit the trend line and then dropped. The second resistance level is 92078, and the third resistance is the weekly level resistance at 94261. First, let's see if it can get past the first resistance; if not, then short. This is just a consolidation in a downtrend, likely not the final bottom; after the adjustment, it will continue to decline. I have high hopes that it can reach 78000. Again, I remind you, those going long must be cautious. In terms of grasping the larger trend, A Long hasn't missed anything since August, calling for the top over 120,000 times; you can check the pinned articles. 3. 4-Hour Level. Last night there was a false breakdown to lure shorts; the consolidation platform low of 89149 was not breached, and now it's rebounding. The first resistance is 91425; let's see what kind of line it closes at when it bounces here; a stagnation signal will allow for a short. Overall, the situation is not optimistic; shorting is much safer than going long. Follow me; A Long has studied naked K for four years and will bring a daily market analysis using naked K language, all of which are valuable insights.
Don't believe in 'new highs imminent', believe in K-line language $LUNA2 The community is starting to shout 'the breakthrough is today'? Be careful, this is often the atmosphere that the main forces prefer. The K-line has a long upper shadow + high position stagnation, which has already exposed the bulls' fatigue. Going short now is not being bearish, it is respecting market signals. {future}(LUNA2USDT)
Your 126000 empty pancake, with added warehouse in the middle
华尔街保洁员Rock
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I found that what truly causes many people to suffer huge losses is not the technology, but rather the loss of the ability to endure the fluctuations of their positions.
Recently, I have come into contact with some friends who have suffered significant losses. Even when given a correct medium-term strategy, they cannot hold on. It is not that they do not recognize the strategy, but the psychological trauma from their losses has already left a deep mark in their hearts.
They have lost too much before, so with every trade, they hope for a "big turnaround." They take on positions that are absurdly heavy, as if handing their lives over to the market the moment they place an order. Every time the candlestick moves a point, their hearts leap; every fluctuation in account balance sends their adrenaline soaring; they stare at the screen without daring to blink, fearing they will miss a rebound or a crash.
At that moment, they are not trading; they are waiting for a verdict.
You think you are doing finance, but in reality, you have become a chip. You think you are smart, but in that state, you are worse than a gambler.
Trading should be calm, an execution based on probabilities and plans. But when a person pins all their hopes on a single order, every market fluctuation tears at their psychological defenses.
Losses are not terrifying; what is terrifying is losing the ability to "withstand fluctuations and hold good positions." Position size determines fate; light positions can survive, while those with heavy positions... hover on the brink of death every day.
A truly mature trader is not one who wins heavily, but one who can afford to lose and hold on. You can only seize opportunities if you can let go of fear. If you are controlled by emotions, no matter how good the strategy, it will turn into a nightmare.
$BTC 2025.12.7 Bitcoin early market analysis. The daily chart shows a doji, but it hasn't reached support, so this is not a signal of a stop in the decline, but rather a continuation of the downtrend. Support below is at 85179-86286; if it doesn't break, it may go to 94000, but if it does break, it will need to go to 78000. Today's fluctuations are expected to be larger.
$BTC 2025.12.6 Bitcoin early market analysis. Yesterday I mentioned to short at 942-945, but there wasn't any opportunity, so I missed it again. No worries, at least I didn't lose money by going long. A Long's grasp of the overall direction is still acceptable; there will be plenty of opportunities. The support below is 873, 862, with the lower boundary of the yellow flag shape at 852. As long as the support holds, it will bounce back to around 942, because the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is on the 10th of this month, and there are still a few days left to speculate a bit. Once the rate cut is announced, it will continue to drop, with a target of 78500. Over the weekend, everyone should spend more time with family and kids; the fluctuations are small, and there's not much market movement. We'll fight again next week!
$LUNC Last night, LUNC surged onto the gainers' list, closing the day with an 80% increase. This coin is likely to be delisted soon, with a daily trading volume of only 1 million dollars. Your rise is impressive, but the shorts are steady, and they are very stable. Reason: First, look at the weekly chart. Since February, it has been consolidating, and on October 6th, it suddenly broke down from the platform with high volume. Those who bought and held for 8 months were all trapped, so when it rises to the consolidation area, there will be significant selling pressure. That's why yesterday's highest price reached 7063, resulting in a shooting star. The daily chart shows a strong bullish candle but with a long upper shadow. The key is the trading volume; compared to historical daily volume, yesterday was the highest, which indicates a massive volume at a high price. The daily chart's strong bullish candle seems not to indicate a short position. No worries, let's take a look at the 4-hour chart. The 4-hour chart looks stable; that line at 4 o'clock is at the top, and it shows massive volume and stagnation. As long as the liquidation price is above 7063, everything is fine. Wait for a rebound to 61 to short; I entered the first position at 84 and expect to go back and forth within a few days.
$BTC 2025.12.5 Bitcoin early market analysis. It was right not to let everyone chase the rise yesterday, as just now the closing was a small bearish candle, with four layers of resistance above, making it hard to go up. There’s a high probability this is just a false signal; the night before yesterday was triggered by several positive news leading to a V-shaped recovery, defined as a rebound from an oversold condition. Still, as the saying goes, the longer it moves sideways, the higher it can go up. Ten days of sideways movement does not support a double bottom structure for rising; once it goes up, those analysts outside will shout for 98, 99, 100 thousand. Right now, we can't even break through the weekly resistance at 942. Currently, there’s also a favorable interest rate cut on the 9th that hasn't materialized yet; this recent upward move seems to be speculative, and once it lands, it may start to drop again. It seems there's still hope to see 78500. Looking at the 4-hour chart, we currently have a single peak; we can wait for a rebound to open a short position at 942-944, placing a direct order on the left side, with a stop loss of 1000 points and a take profit at 855. There's nothing else to say; that’s it for today.
Naked K looks at the market, hitting the essence directly; news can be misleading, but K lines won't. Hello everyone, I am Naked K A Long, a trader who has studied the Naked K system for 4 years. Every morning, I bring everyone a Bitcoin market analysis. It's been a while since I've dedicated a separate article to eth.sol and bnb. Since I work at a state-owned enterprise, there are many summaries towards the end of the year, and I just finished a busy period yesterday. Today, I have some free time to briefly discuss these coins, but there isn't much to say; they all follow Bitcoin. Since I need to discuss three coins in one article, I will say a few words about each coin, keeping it concise.
$BTC Naked K-line view, directly hitting the essence; news can deceive, but K-lines do not. 1. Weekly chart. The M-top has broken, during the decline it encountered horizontal support and trend line support, stopped falling and rebounded. The pressure above is firstly horizontal, at 94261, and secondly the pressure from the green trend line. The rebound may reach the green trend line, but if it can't go up, it will ultimately test the 78430 support. 2. Daily chart. This needs to be discussed in detail. A double bottom structure has formed here, and it just broke through the neck line. The top-bottom structure is a reversal pattern. Is the trend reversing? I'm not optimistic! The reason is that the building cycle is too short, only a dozen candlesticks. The upper compound double top structure has taken three months, and this small double bottom has insufficient washout time, it feels more like an oversold rebound. I also reviewed it, this wave of daily level decline, the MACD fast line is already at an all-time low. Is it the end of the negatives and the beginning of the positives? At that time, I should have boldly taken a long position because I always saw the monthly line support at 82550. If I set a buy at 82000 or 81000, I could have caught this wave to 91500. Sometimes being overly cautious on the right side can also cause missed opportunities; a combination of both sides is still necessary.
Yesterday, this wave of 4-hour level V reversal was indeed quite fierce, beyond my expectations. This shows that anything is possible in this market, and at this time, the importance of contract stop-loss becomes evident. My short positions have all lost money, and I am currently in a flat position. However, I couldn't capture this increase in my trading because I focus on structure; I won't enter a long position without a double bottom structure on the 4-hour chart, so there's nothing to regret. This incident also serves as a reminder: trading is a personal matter, and one must be responsible for their own investments. Others' analyses can only serve as references; in the end, the decision is still yours, and no one is right every time.
Viewing the market with naked candlesticks, hitting the essence; news can be misleading, but candlesticks do not lie. 1. Weekly chart. Currently encountering trend lines and horizontal double support, closing above the support level. Last week's bullish candlestick rebounded without volume, coupled with the monthly chart showing a large bearish candlestick, I personally feel that this level cannot hold, and will likely go below 80,000. The point I am most optimistic about is 78430, which will be tested. If Bitcoin has another wave of market activity, then December will be a month of consolidation and bottom formation. This is the expectation; whether it can break out ultimately remains to be seen, as the month has just begun, so there is no need to rush. 2. Daily chart. Just closed with a large bearish candlestick with volume, direction is downward. At the same time, the lower shadow is relatively long, so today it should move up a bit within the day, with a possible point being 87369. Regarding bottom fishing, the daily chart level shows a breakdown from a compound double top, and the downward momentum is still quite strong. Currently, there is no bottom structure, and it is still in a downtrend, so selling short on rallies is the way to go. Any bottom fishing belongs to the left side, as I do not know if around 80,000 is the final bottom, I hope everyone understands this. Therefore, it's best to bottom fish in batches, with a maximum of half a position, avoiding full positions. If the weekly chart level breaks below 78430 with a medium to large bearish candlestick, I will not be optimistic about the future market. This defensive line must not be broken; remember, it is at the weekly chart level, confirmed by the close, and does not count during the trading day.
The analysis of these fundamentals is quite good and has reference value, I will also go to test 78000
阿佛-财经指南
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Today BTC plummeted by more than 6000 points. According to the Japan Times, the yield on Japan's two-year government bonds has risen to 1%, the highest level since 2008. This trend reflects market expectations that the Bank of Japan is about to start raising interest rates. Current market pricing shows a 76% probability of the Bank of Japan raising rates at the meeting on December 19, while the probability for a rate hike in January has risen to over 90%.
The rate hike in Japan and the crypto market crash are due to those engaging in carry trade being forced to close their positions, which will lead to a further tightening of liquidity as funds flow back. If the Federal Reserve cuts rates this month, combined with Japan's rate hike, the interest rate spread will continue to compress, posing a serious challenge to the crypto market. The liquidity issues were already evident on October 11 during the crypto black swan event.
Today also marks the end of the US QT, but unfortunately, under the backdrop of the Bank of Japan's intention to raise rates and the already poor liquidity situation in the US, the end of QT will not inject new liquidity. It merely ensures that no liquidity will be withdrawn each month, which means that the current tight liquidity situation in the market will not improve immediately.
Recent important events: 12.1 (Monday): US October PPI, Q3 PCE 12.3 (Wednesday): US November ADP employment numbers 12.4 (Thursday): US weekly unemployment claims 12.5 (Friday): US September PCE data
Now that I've talked about the macro situation, let me mention a few potential bottom-buying points for BTC: 77400 and 71000 are my psychological expected prices. The area around 77000 is the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level calculated from 48000 to 126000. This level has a high probability of either a significant rebound or becoming the bottom over the next three months. As for whether we can buy at 71000? I think the likelihood is low because MicroStrategy's cost price is around 74000, and other institutions also have their costs clustered around here, with nearly 100 billion $ of chips. Unless these institutions decide to stop playing, it would be like pulling the plug and leading to destruction. I haven't had time to calculate ETH yet, but the bottom buying price should be around 2550. I mentioned this level previously, and I will continue to update specifics.
This week, volatility will be relatively high due to the abundance of data, and price spikes will occur more frequently. Avoid reckless trading unless you find good entry points, and protect your principal, friends.
$ZEC This zec held up the neckline the day before yesterday, but the rebound was very weak, and the volume was also lacking. Yesterday, I felt something was off, so I took a loss. This morning, it just closed, and the middle bearish candle broke the neckline level of 443, establishing a double top structure. Now, don’t think about anything more; the downtrend has formed, so it’s a matter of shorting at high points. But don’t chase the short; just wait for it to pull back to the neckline at 443 to short. If it doesn’t pull back, don’t trade; there are so many coins, don’t fixate on just one. I expect it to drop to 345 for a rebound, and it’s best not to think about taking this rebound, as I won’t take counter-trend trades, because sometimes it doesn’t pull back. Follow Alon, who shares Bitcoin market trends every day to help you clarify your thoughts. There are too many people adding me over there, and I’ve warned about the risks; the group probably won’t last much longer. Once my followers reach 3000, I will apply for a group here on Binance, so I won’t be afraid of being shut down. I hope everyone likes my posts more to increase engagement so that more people can see it and we can open the group sooner.