苏哲分析

This week, Bitcoin and market fluctuations have intensified, with significant ups and downs. Some small investors find it difficult to manage, leading to confusion in trading and a loss of confidence. At this stage of the trend, professional analysis, solid strength, and a confident attitude become particularly important.

At this stage, we are offering 5 slots for professional guidance to help friends understand market information, technical analysis, and operational skills.

Recommended entry threshold: Stable from 2000u to 5000u, medium to long-term starting from 10000u. Strict execution, professional position management, and risk control.

After reaching a new high, Bitcoin has become the sixth largest asset in the world (Updated July 11, 2025)
1. Latest Market Performance
Price reaches a new high: Bitcoin (BTC) broke through $117,000 on July 10, then slightly retreated to $116,000, with a 24-hour increase of 4.54%.
Market capitalization ranking: Bitcoin's total market capitalization surpasses Google (Alphabet), becoming the sixth largest asset globally, behind only gold, Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon.
2. Core Drivers of Bitcoin's Rise
Institutional inflow: BlackRock’s Bitcoin Spot ETF (IBIT) raised $9 billion in 2025, making it one of the top five ETFs in the U.S. for fund inflows.
Policy benefits: The Trump administration has suspended tariffs for 90 days, boosting market risk appetite.
Scarcity support: The total supply of Bitcoin is only 21 million coins, with institutional investors continuously increasing their holdings.
3. Future Outlook
If Bitcoin rises to $158,000, its market capitalization will surpass Apple ($3.15 trillion), entering the top four globally.
Market predictions suggest a target price range of $110,000 to $200,000 by the end of 2025.
4. Risk Warning
Short-term volatility: Bitcoin futures open interest has reached a new high, potentially exacerbating market fluctuations.
Policy uncertainty: The Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and new tariffs in the U.S. (effective August) may impact market sentiment.
Conclusion: The rise of Bitcoin marks the formal entry of cryptocurrencies into the global mainstream asset category. Whether it can challenge the market capitalization positions of Apple and Microsoft in the future depends on the continued inflow of institutional funds and changes in market risk appetite.#BTC再创新高

The Ethereum trend is linked to Bitcoin but has shown weaker performance in the early stages. On December 4th, it surged to 3240 before falling due to selling pressure, dipping to 3064 and then rebounding to around 3150, recovering most of its losses. Although the rebound pace has slowed, the long lower shadow indicates active buying at lower levels, and the overall structure appears more optimistic than Bitcoin, currently in a consolidation phase after an oversold correction.
Technical indicators: The hourly RSI has risen from a low of 35 to a neutral range of 55, completing the oversold correction. Previously, there was a bullish arrangement that broke through all moving averages and a golden cross pattern. The MACD bullish momentum had been continuously strengthening, and currently, it is positively influenced by the Fusaka upgrade, enhancing its practicality.
Operating suggestions
Core strategy: Keep buying with the trend: You can look for opportunities to go long in the 3100 - 3120 range. If the price pulls back to 3100 and stabilizes, it is a good entry point, with the initial target set at 3180 - 3220. Once broken, it can challenge the previous high of 3240.

Bitcoin is currently in a weak oscillation state at a high level. On the evening of December 4th, affected by the U.S. initial unemployment claims data, Bitcoin spiked down to a low of 90842 before rapidly rebounding, stabilizing above 92000 during the day. The market is oscillating between 92000 and 93000, with both bulls and bears engaged in a tug-of-war. Overall, it has not reclaimed the lower boundary of the original consolidation range at 92800, indicating that the market structure has shifted from high-level consolidation to weak oscillation.
Technical Indicators: On the daily chart, the spike's low is close to the 0.382 retracement level of the previous rebound trend line, and it is supported by the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, confirming the effectiveness of the support; the MACD indicator on the 4-hour chart is in a critical state for both bulls and bears, with no clear directional signal. Additionally, the short-term trend support point of EMA15 is at 91200, and the strong resistance at the golden resistance level of 0.618 corresponds to 94200, making it difficult for the main force to break through this level in the short term.
Operation Suggestions
Mainly short-term low buy: 91000-91500 can choose low buy, with a target looking first at 92500 - 93000. If it breaks, it can further see 93500-94000.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin and Ethereum have both respectively reached the Fibonacci golden ratio at 93000/3170. There is still room above the daily level, with a focus on low longs!

Bitcoin 93000-92500 range, aiming for the daily top of 95500-96000.
Ethereum 3200-3150 range, aiming for the upper target of 3280-3420.

Three major positive developments have arrived, and the crypto market is in turmoil! Bitcoin skyrocketed overnight to 92,000, and Ethereum remains steady at 3,000 dollars. This rebound is too fierce! 💥

🔥 Positive Development 1: Vanguard opens the Bitcoin ETF trading door for 8 million customers, even the most conservative institutions are joining in, and traditional funds are flooding in!

🔥 Positive Development 2: Trump supports dovish Hassett as the Federal Reserve Chairman, expectations for liquidity are skyrocketing!

🔥 Positive Development 3: The Federal Reserve officially ends quantitative tightening, liquidity easing is no longer just a "dream"; it’s about to become a reality!

💡 Market confidence + funding both boosting, but retail investors should be cautious! Remember:

✅ Hold on tight to your Bitcoin and Ethereum, don't get left behind!

✅ Use spare cash to buy on dips, don’t chase highs and sell lows!

✅ Be patient for the big market movements, don’t rush to go all in!

🌪️ The favorable wind has arrived, steady the helm, and don't capsize before setting sail!

⚠️日元加息 = 美联储降息 “催化剂”？！

核心逻辑：日元一加息，美元不降息就会被 “虹吸” 资本，美国经济扛不住这波压力（简单说：钱都跑日元那了，美国企业、就业全受影响）。

关键伏笔：之前已经放了降息信号，现在不跟进，鲍威尔不仅要背经济下行的锅，还得挨骂 “言而无信”！

你们觉得：美联储会为了避坑果断降息吗？👇

⚠️Milestone events in the crypto circle! The world's second-largest asset management giant Vanguard lifts the Bitcoin ETF ban! (The main reasons for the rise in Bitcoin and sentiment tonight!!!)

The former "anti-crypto bastion" has completely broken down～ Holding 10 trillion in assets + 50 million clients, what does its shift mean? Is it a clarion call for institutional funds to enter the market, or a booster for Bitcoin's rebound?

The boundaries between traditional finance and the crypto market are melting away, come to the comments section to share your thoughts!

Although Bitcoin and Ethereum have not broken the descending channel on the daily chart yet, they have been in an upward phase recently, and the resistance levels above are quite close, definitely dominated by low volatility. Furthermore, looking at the four-hour trend chart, the upward channel in the small cycle still exists and is relatively strong!

Bitcoin and Ethereum will only continue to decline if they cannot stabilize above the resistance levels of 93000 and 3170; otherwise, they are currently in a strong upward phase, and caution is still advised!

Recently, Bitcoin and the market sentiment have experienced several downward trends, but they have started to rebound from the bottom. However, a rebound does not necessarily mean a reversal.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin and the market sentiment are gradually rising on the daily chart, but the upper resistance level is still quite strong, remaining in a downward channel. To continue to open up the upper range, it is still necessary to break through the resistance. Bitcoin mainly focuses on the dual resistance levels around 91600/93000, while the market sentiment mainly focuses on around 3170.

In the evening, it is highly likely to test the dual resistance upwards, and during the day, one can try short positions while maintaining good defense!

Still continue to track, looking at the short track pullback on the white plate.

Big coin 91000-91500 track, target below 9000-89000
Elegant shape 3020-3060 track, target 2980-2950 ​​​

The US stock market is about to open, and Su Zhe's view on the evening trend is still mainly low. After the market opens, it is expected that there will be another wave of bottom testing. Friends who have orders in hand need not worry too much. For those who want to enter the market, you can take the lead and enter the factory now! You can choose to enter early with Xiao Cang and just reserve a position for replenishment!!!

Big coin 87000-86000 low, target 88000-89000
Yitai 2900-2840 low, target above 2980-3030

Bitcoin and Ethereum are still experiencing fluctuations this afternoon. The current trend is overly tense, with Bitcoin and Ethereum focusing on the lines of 85500 and 2750, respectively.

From a technical perspective, both Bitcoin and Ethereum are currently in a seriously oversold zone on the weekly chart, with support at 85500 and 2750. However, the KDJ has shown signs of turning. The daily chart has seen two consecutive green candles since the weekend, and the MACD green bars are slowly decreasing in volume. The momentum is starting to pick up, and the U.S. stock market is likely to rise first when it opens tonight. Those who have already entered positions below can continue to hold.

Bitcoin 86000-855000, target 87500-88000
Ethereum 2800-2750, target 2880-2930

Bitcoin is under pressure and fluctuating, while Ethereum shows a clear bullish trend, operating within a low range. When is the right time to act?

Currently, Bitcoin is around $105,000, down 0.93% in the last 24 hours, with a high of $105,500 and a low of $102,400. Previously, bulls attempted to break through the lower boundary of the multi-week consolidation zone at $107,250 but failed to hold. The short-term market is cautious, with intense long and short battles. Technical indicators show signs of a "death cross" as the 50-day simple moving average crosses below the 200-day simple moving average, suggesting a weakening short-term trend. The 4-hour K-line saw a significant drop, although there was a small rebound, trading volume decreased, indicating low market activity; the KDJ value shows oversold conditions, and the MACD histogram remains negative but is gradually shortening, indicating that bullish strength is slowly increasing.

Recommended trading range: When the price rebounds to the resistance range of $106,500 - $106,000, consider taking a small short position, targeting around $103,000; if it breaks down, further look towards around $102,000.

As of the time of writing, Ethereum is around $3,550, with a daily low of $3,463. Previously, it faced resistance around $3,592, and has cumulatively dropped over 4% this week, operating within a low range. Some data shows that the price has dropped as low as $3,121.80 today, with significant short-term volatility.

From a technical perspective, yesterday's daily candlestick closed with a large bearish line, forming a "single bearish after consecutive bullish" correction pattern. The MACD lines have crossed bearishly and the green momentum bars are expanding, indicating a clear bearish trend. The 4-hour chart's moving average system shows a bearish arrangement, near the horizontal support point of an ascending triangle. The MACD has ended its expansion and formed a death cross. After the middle band at $3,510 was lost, it turned into a resistance level. The short-term is entering oversold territory, while the mid-term and long-term both show bearish momentum.

Recommended trading range: Wait for the price to rise to the $3,580 - $3,610 range to set up short positions, with a stop loss of 50 points, targeting down to $3,400 - $3,450; if the support level of $3,460 is broken, look further towards $3,300 - $3,350.

The current price of the pancake is stable in the range of $112,000 to $113,500, with daily fluctuations narrowing. Both bulls and bears are currently in a stalemate between the resistance level of $113,500 and the support level of $112,000.

Technical signals indicate a slight bearish trend, with weak short-term rebounds. The daily MACD indicator shows that bearish momentum is dominant, and the EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is in a bearish arrangement, putting pressure on prices from short-term moving averages. The 4-hour moving average system is also in a bearish arrangement, and the death cross signal has not yet been repaired, indicating that the medium-term trend remains weak. The key level of $113,500 is a strong short-term resistance level; if it cannot be effectively broken, prices will continue to oscillate downwards; $112,000 is the intraday support, and if it breaks, it may further explore $110,000.

Suggested trading range:
For single orders: If the rise in the range of $113,300 to $113,800 encounters resistance, you can choose to enter a single order, targeting the lower range of $111,500 to $112,000.
For multiple orders: In the short-term support range of $110,500 to $111,500, choose to enter multiple orders in batches (light positions only, do not use heavy positions), targeting the upper range of $112,500 to $113,000.

The current trend of Bitcoin is slightly bearish, and shorting during rebounds is preferable. It is recommended to prioritize short orders.
The above suggestions are for reference only, mainly based on Shiban!!!

The current price of Ethereum is in the range of $4050-$4150, limited by resistance above $4150, and short-term support is formed at the integer level of $4000, but the rebound momentum is clearly insufficient.

Technical indicators show weak fluctuations, with a long-term downward trend. Daily level: It has been blocked near the 30-day EMA for two consecutive days, and the rebound strength is limited. Although the MACD bearish momentum has weakened, it has not yet formed a golden cross. Hourly trend line volume is shrinking, indicating a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, lacking the momentum for a strong rise. The key position of $4150 is the short-term resistance level; if it cannot break through, the price will remain weak; $4000 is the support at the integer level, and if it breaks down, it may test $3900.

Trading range suggestion: If it pulls back to the short-term resistance level of $4150-$4200, consider entering the market in batches, with the lower target looking at support levels of $4050-$4400. If it breaks below $4000, it may further look down to $3970-$3940.

Ethereum shows signs of a short-term rebound, but the long-term trend is still not out of weakness. It is recommended to short at highs after a rebound.
The above suggestions are for reference only; trading should still be based on actual conditions!!!

Bitcoin current price 117300 USD, the market is in a range-bound pattern. The technical analysis shows that the price fluctuates repeatedly between support and resistance, with multiple bullish candles on the daily chart. Market sentiment is relatively strong, with EMA indicators showing a bullish arrangement and a clear bullish trend. In the 2-hour chart, the price broke upward after fluctuating around 117000 USD, with the high approaching the previous swing high of 117865 USD, indicating some short-term pressure. The MACD 2-hour momentum is strengthening.

Suggested trading range: Short-term buying points can be around 116300-116800 USD, with targets of 117500-117800 USD.

The current price of Ethereum is 4600 USD, showing a typical range oscillation pattern, with prices running between the support of 4436 USD and the resistance of 4768 USD.
Although the moving average system presents a bullish arrangement, indicating that the market still has some bullish momentum, the extreme shrinkage of trading volume has created a divergence between volume and price, weakening the health of the upward movement. Additionally, the recent formation of a bearish engulfing pattern in the K-line has increased the risk of a short-term pullback. However, the 2-hour lows are gradually rising, and the highs are continuously testing the area above 4600 USD, with the daily line closing positive, forming a rebound structure, and the MACD 2-hour momentum strengthening, showing signs of a short-term bullish reversal on the daily line.

Recommended trading range: 4530-4570 range for partial buying, targeting 4630-4660.

After the news from the Federal Reserve was announced, the market started to show an upward trend in the early morning, reaching a peak of around 4640 USD. Looking at the hourly chart, there is already resistance above, and a pullback has begun. The MACD red bars are starting to shrink, a high-level death cross is beginning to appear, and the KDJ is in severe overbought territory. The market is quite strong, indicating a need for a pullback.

Suggested trading range: Enter long between 4600-4620, targeting 4530-4500.

On September 18, the Federal Reserve lowered the interbank overnight lending rate range to between 4.00% and 4.25%, reducing interest rates by 25 basis points, but the Bitcoin price reacted relatively calmly. After the interest rate cut announcement, Bitcoin's highest price was approximately $117,800, and then it slightly retraced to $117,000, remaining basically flat compared to the past 24 hours. From a technical perspective, on the daily chart, Bitcoin broke through the resistance level of $116,000, forming a bullish engulfing pattern and a golden cross resonance with MA, but the MACD red bars shortened, and the RSI approached the overbought zone at 70, indicating that upward momentum has weakened.

Suggested trading range: The range of 118,000-117,300 can be entered in batches, with a target of 115,500-116,000.