Standard Top-Bottom Conversion The highest point ran all the way with 0 drawdown It's okay if you couldn't keep up this time, just follow for next time You might not dare to follow my trades, but you should dare to simulate following them #加密市场反弹
Today many people in my circle are watching Taleb and discussing whether to cut losses. Actually, Taleb's point is to not set a stop loss casually and then be swept away, missing out on long-term gains (well, that's exactly what happened with my XRP yesterday, and I even made a profit). From my personal experience, if you are looking at structure, then stop loss when the structure fails. If you are looking at logic, then stop loss only when there is a logical error. In May of this year, I messed up with ETH perfectly, looking long while trading short. I was looking at the data logic of ETH, and the larger trend was indeed very strong, so I should only consider exiting when the data logic is falsified or when the larger trend weakens. However, I frequently opened positions in the short term, and I was right, heavily investing correctly, but I couldn't hold on. In the future, I will try to make mistakes without cutting losses. Many players on the blockchain should have some experience; during the early stages of massive fluctuations, a 10%, 30%, or even 50% stop loss is completely illogical and can easily be taken out. So where does the firm belief in holding positions come from? I believe it comes from the judgment of emotions and narratives, which are things beyond candlestick charts. Trading purely based on candlesticks will definitely lead to failure, without a doubt. Because I died just like that in 2024.
In short, my revelation is to look more at the larger timeframes and never look long while trading short; open positions based on logic and signals outside of candlesticks. Additionally, control your position size well to ignore the noise of the market.
I also call it impact in bcoin. Recently, I have been continuously shorting. I couldn't hold the short position with the order number, especially for mon, I should reflect on this, mainly because I don't want to lose money, I want the curve to look better. But trading is essentially gambling; it is a game of using stop-loss to seek profits. If you don't dare to invest, don't dare to sit at the table, you definitely won't win.
In the future, I will try to open positions with the order number as much as possible; courage is the anthem of humanity.
Let's talk about the recent market trends. This wave of Bitcoin has risen significantly, and in the past, such an increase would usually lead to the emergence of altcoins, or even a direct surge of emotional narratives. For example, in May, we saw the emergence of the Hippo.
But this time, there hasn't been any, which is actually a very bad signal. It's impossible to go long unless I observe the main narrative. Continuing to short or mainly staying on the sidelines is advisable.