Gold on Friday was like a roller coaster, first breaking through the key resistance level, then dropping down, with the lowest point in the tail end falling to around 4198. It ultimately closed with a long upper shadow bearish candle, and the trend was similar to what was previously expected.
From the daily chart, this upper shadow bearish candle indicates that there is significant pressure above. The previously bullish funds have started to take profits and exit after the rebound. Gold has fallen from 4380, and now it has rebounded to a key area, which may form a "double top" pattern (just like a mountain peak with two high points), so I think the rebound may be temporarily halted, and it is highly likely to adjust downwards next.
Today's trading suggestion mainly is "short on rallies"
• Focus on the pressure in the range of 4228 to 4245 above; if it rises to this vicinity, short positions can be considered;
If it breaks below 4170, then from the four-hour chart, the market may change from oscillation to a clear downward trend, potentially seeing 4130 or even 4050. If the market itself is relatively weak today, it may not even rise above 4220; at this point, you can monitor the 5-minute chart for signals, and wait for a clear downward signal to enter a short position; if it unexpectedly breaks through 4220, then wait for it to rise to the range of 4228-4245 before placing short orders.
Yesterday's layout for gold short at 4127 went as expected, continuously dropping to around 4174, with real trading taking profit and capturing nearly 55 points of space, very fragrant.
Chen Nan's Viewpoint: Gold is likely to pull back in the short term, while crude oil continues to fluctuate back and forth.
Gold surged first and then fell yesterday, with a daily candlestick forming an inverted T shape; crude oil saw a slight increase yesterday, with a daily candlestick forming a solid bullish line with a small upper shadow. The specific market situation needs to be monitored with real-time guidance.
From the daily chart of gold, the price started to decline after hitting a previous resistance level, so we need to pay attention to whether it will continue to move down at the daily level. Looking at the 4-hour chart, the candlesticks have continuously declined and have broken below the short-term moving average, which is also starting to diverge downwards slowly, indicating signs of weakening in the short-term trend. Currently, the price is temporarily supported around 4220, but the rebounds after hitting this level several times during the day, both in terms of strength and duration, have been insufficient, so be cautious as it may slightly break below this support level and continue to decline thereafter. Looking at the hourly chart, the candlesticks are basically following the short-term moving average, maintaining a clear downward trend, with a focus on the short-term pullback situation.
Operation Suggestions:
• You can short around 4224 to 4225, with a stop-loss set at 4231.6;
• You can also go long around 4185 to 4186, with a stop-loss set at 4178.2. Specific actions still need to be combined with real-time market conditions.
If the direction is right, no matter how far the road is, you won't be afraid to walk it. Prove your true skills with time, and use those skills to create a better future. If you trust me, I will lead you to earn money, and once you make money, there will be no worries.
The market changes quickly, and following the trend is the most reliable approach. When the trend comes, act decisively; don’t insist on going against the market to catch the bottom, or you will only suffer. In trading, never act impulsively; the market is known for treating all kinds of "discontent" harshly, so never hold onto losing positions stubbornly. Many people have experienced this, right? The longer you hold, the more anxious you become; the losses keep increasing, you can't eat well, can't sleep well, and you miss many opportunities to make money. If you also have these troubles, why not try following Li Cai? It might help you figure things out all at once.
The market on Monday for gold first rose and then fell back, oscillating back and forth, and the K-line closed as a doji bullish line for the day. In the short term, it's still a strong state of "wanting to rise but not rising decisively." Looking at the technical indicators, the 5-day moving average and the 10-day moving average have formed a golden cross and are still rising, indicating that there is still enough upward momentum in the short term.
The resistance level above is first looking at the previous day's high point around 4265. If this position is broken through, then look at the range between 4275 and 4276, as well as near 4340. Among these, 4340 is critical; starting from the low point of gold at 3886, connecting the highs and lows along the way forms the upper line of the rising channel, which is nearby and represents a significant resistance.
The support level below, first look at the previous day's low point of 4205. If this position is broken, the short-term market may weaken. Further down is the range between 4172 and 4162, which was the high point during the oscillation last Wednesday and Thursday. If it breaks back down, we need to see if this area can turn from "previous high point" into "current support."
The short position we gave yesterday at 4252 was entered directly at the current price at that time, and indeed earned dozens of points, easily secured.
Midnight Chat on Gold: The Thinking Has Changed Tonight
Previously, I always suggested buying bullish above 4000, but this idea has now paused. The daily chart has formed a doji, and gold is likely to adjust downwards next!
With December just beginning, the general direction is not yet fully determined, but I personally feel that there will be a drop first. Whether looking at technical charts, news, or the trends of gold prices over the past few months, the conclusion is: wait for the price to rise before shorting.
In terms of news, we need to watch whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, and we cannot rule out the possibility of positive news later that could cause gold prices to rise. When the time comes, any movement will definitely be first reflected in the gold price!
Specific operational advice: Short sell around 4245, with a short-term target near 4200.