趋势感知

Jeff Dean resigns, must post overnight. The super idol at work for more than 10 years—my architectural design philosophy is largely inspired by Jeff Dean. He has carefully read every engineering paper he’s written; Jeff can be said to be a pioneer in internet technology (distributed computing frameworks, big data computing frameworks, AI, etc.).

Since Jeff joined Google in 1999, many of Google’s core architectures and technologies have come from Jeff. In terms of engineering output, he is the most prolific scientist in internet infrastructure technologies and AI foundational architecture—no one else comes close. Therefore, his departure caused Google’s stock to drop by 7% almost immediately.

After Jeff left, he will found an AI company focused on scientific discovery: Discovery Loop. You can think of it as a vertical version of Claude Code and Lobster (we can consider Lobster to be Agent Loop). But this Agent focuses specifically on scientific discovery—automating scientific and technological R&D exploration (through AI autonomous thinking and planning), and accelerating the efficiency of fundamental science exploration.

Previously, people have kept asking me what startup opportunities in AI exist on-device. I’ve always believed that, at the moment, all-purpose Agents and their tools that assist white-collar tasks don’t really make sense. On the one hand, some capabilities can be directly embedded during the post-training stage of large models; on the other hand, AI’s own path is to replace people, while the business model of Agents that assist humans is directly disproven. The characteristics of on-device startup opportunities might be: combine hardware + models, then go deep into a vertical area within a specific industry chain—e.g., Coding (Coding Agent Loop), Jeff’s Discovery Loop focused on scientific discovery, embodied intelligence (Tesla Optimus robots).
$GOOGL

Last night, the Federal Reserve did not raise interest rates, in line with expectations, but the QQQ didn’t rise. Now QQQ is extremely sensitive. Earlier I mentioned that by the end of the month I would be watching conditions; it seems that no clear rebound signal has appeared yet. Instead, the market is full of panic. Positive news can’t spark a rally, and negative news will inevitably trigger a sharp drop. This is a typical bear-market pullback signal. Currently, the QQQ Nasdaq index has already pulled back by 10%. If it goes through a secondary large-cycle pullback, then there’s still about another 10% downside. The market is ever-changing and unpredictable, so we’ll keep the “bottom hold” unchanged. If we gradually add positions, we should be a bit more conservative at first—wait for clear rebound signals before we enter with full weight.
Also, the fundamental story behind AI remains essentially unchanged. In my view, what we’re seeing is just capital taking profits for the moment and emotions driving the selloff. The market worries that AI compute-capex won’t translate into corresponding returns on the application side. After all, on the capital side, spending is on the scale of tens of trillions of dollars, while the application side doesn’t yet have a matching revenue structure—this concern about a bubble is normal.
But in the long run, the AI trend is unstoppable. A short-term pullback is precisely our opportunity to add positions. We’re betting on AGI—ASI will ultimately arrive!

#美联储料7月29日维持利率不变 Without a doubt, the most likely outcome is that things will remain unchanged. I analyzed the Federal Reserve’s decision in a livestream before. Next, I will analyze it from two dimensions: the standard answer and the non-standard answer:
In June, the FOMC kept the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75%. Currently, the core CPI is around 2.6%. Nominal interest rates are already higher than core inflation, so by this measure, monetary policy is not loose.
Of course, some people might argue that the U.S. government pays $1 trillion in interest on Treasury bonds every year—more than military spending—which accounts for 15%+ of fiscal expenditure, and that the total size of Treasuries is already around $40 trillion. They might say that rate hikes could accelerate a collapse of U.S. Treasuries. But I want to say that none of that is important—this isn’t the core point. The fundamental logic of how the global economy operates is within the dollar system. Treasury bonds equal dollars; the larger the Treasury market, the stronger the dollar. Of course, this requires a delicate balance—like an aerial acrobat performing on a tightrope. If you can’t control it, everyone knows what the consequences will be. The FOMC is the key institution that maintains this balance. Therefore, the focus isn’t on how much interest or how large the Treasury balance is; what matters is maintaining balance. For the U.S. government, the size and the interest have never been the most important factor; it’s not a single indicator. It’s about whether the overall set of indicators and their linkages are healthy (for example: the U.S. nominal GDP, fiscal revenue, global GDP, and the fact that global GDP growth also reflects the strength of demand for the dollar; improvements in global technology productivity increase dollar demand; inflation expectations, and so on).
Also, to maintain the balance I just mentioned, I believe the FOMC will definitely take action. In this critical period of competition over national destiny in the AI narrative, the probability of rate hikes is relatively low. Over the next few years, enterprises’ AI capital expenditures will shift from corporate earnings to financing and debt. In this situation, rate hikes could cause the AI bubble to burst early. Currently, U.S. AI compute capital expenditures exceed 700 billion u; next year, they are expected to reach 1,000 billion u. The scale is huge. Therefore, I think the room for action includes: structural divergence in CPI data—for example, independently tracking the AI industry chain; a mild balance-sheet reduction (quantitative tightening); and using tough talk (a strategy commonly used in the “wolf is coming” style—saying it but not doing it, which reduces market expectations, especially in the stock market, to prevent it from getting overheated). In short, they will definitely do something, but the likelihood of rate hikes is low.

After the recent sharp drop in semiconductors, a VIP member of Ren Zeping got liquidated and surged to the top of the hot search. I briefly looked into it. This Zeping isn’t an ordinary person. He has a PhD from Renmin University, and his work credentials are impressive: he served as a chief economist at multiple securities firms. He was even invited by Evergrande’s Xu Jiayin with a 15 million yuan annual salary to become Evergrande’s chief economist. I checked his official account—his content mainly focuses on macro trends, and he’s very sharp. In general, he only aggressively calls trades after a trend has already formed (in other words, hindsight “proving” after the fact). For example, this year: after gold had already been falling for a few months, he started saying gold was in a declining cycle and told everyone not to add positions. Then once AI semiconductors started rising, he began aggressively calling for semiconductors. (He claims the impact of the AI revolution is 100 times that of the Industrial Revolution; that pullbacks are “golden pits”; that “a thousand pieces of gold can’t buy a bull’s return.” His language is extremely aggressive. This may cause many of his VIP members to experience FOFO—fear of missing out while still positioned—and take overly aggressive positions. I wonder whether Evergrande’s earlier aggressive style was influenced by his aggressive style… hhh)

After all that gossip: since he’s basically a retail investor and all low-leverage positions got liquidated, does that mean leveraged capital has already been forced to sell at low levels, and whether selling pressure has reached a stage peak? Is the downside space limited going forward? I’m planning to start accumulating some long positions in South Korean semiconductor stocks.

$AKE , Continuing my previous logic, we have already reached an interim goal. We’ve currently pushed up by 10x. Next, we’ll look toward 20x—i.e., price moving toward 0.004. The main force is still at work; don’t worry, just follow along. But be careful with leverage. It’s possible they may first drive the price below 0.001, though the highest price will most likely break 0.004. As for whether to go toward the 100x target next, it depends on the K-line trend.

#美国6月CPI降至3.8%
At the early hours of July 15 Beijing time, the U.S. June CPI year-over-year came in at 3.5%, below expectations of around 3.8%-3.9% and also below the prior reading of 4.2%. This was mainly due to a decline in oil prices. As a result, although the Nasdaq rose, momentum was relatively weak. Recently, however, oil prices have been quickly driven higher by the U.S.-Iran conflict, which will affect subsequent CPI data. Since early June, QQQ (Nasdaq) has been in a 45-day pullback, and the 4-hour chart formed a converging triangle with a technical pattern breakout signal. Combining fundamentals, I think it is likely to break upward, but with limited momentum—meaning the upside may not be very large. You can buy on the long side; take profit at new highs. Bet on the next month: QQQ breaks to new highs.

$BTC I’m amazed by the things these old 6 are saying in their朋友圈 (circle)—they say BTC has a bit of “old-school old geezer” vibe, and ask what young people are playing. Come to think of it, that actually seems true. Back then, BTC was mostly played by teens and people in their 20s. Lately, I hardly ever see kids around 20 playing crypto anymore. So is it true now that it’s really the “middle-aged folks” and “old geezer” crowd who are playing? Prove you’re young—drop a comment.

# Is Tether also going to sell coins?
Tether transferred 4 BTC to Binance—what’s that for?

Is this testing the channel, and preparing to sell coins?

Earlier there was MSTR, and later there was Tehter—these are all top BTC-believing companies. Why would they sell coins? Has their conviction shaken?

If you know clearly, tell me in the comments—I want to learn, because I really don’t understand Tether’s motivation.

So here comes the question: if other top companies follow suit as well, will they start selling coins too?

$BIRB 4h Buy can still achieve new highs; the probability of it rising should be greater than the probability of it falling.