Ethan_Blake

The U.S. jobs market just threw a surprise at markets.
August payrolls came in at 162,000, almost three times the roughly 53,000 jobs economists were expecting. The unemployment rate stayed at 4.1%, while previous months were also revised higher.
At first glance, strong employment sounds like good news. But for markets, especially crypto, it creates a different problem: the Federal Reserve may have less reason to ease policy.
Following the jobs report, expectations for a September rate hike jumped to around 58%, up from roughly 49% the day before. Treasury yields moved higher, with the two-year yield reaching its highest level since January 2025. Stocks also came under pressure, with the Dow and S&P 500 finishing lower.
Bitcoin felt the pressure too. BTC had pushed above $82,000 earlier in the session before giving back gains and slipping below the $80,000 area as traders adjusted their Fed expectations.
For crypto, this matters because higher-for-longer interest rates can make risk assets less attractive. When bond yields rise, traders often become more selective with capital, and highly speculative assets can feel that shift quickly.
But the September hike is not locked in yet.
The next major test is the U.S. CPI report on September 11. If inflation comes in hotter than expected, the case for another hike could strengthen. If inflation cools, those rate-hike expectations could reverse just as quickly. Fed officials have also indicated that the inflation data will be important for the September decision.
My view: I would avoid reading too much into one jobs report. The CPI is now the number I’d be watching most closely.
For BTC, the key question is simple: can it reclaim $80K and hold it, or does macro pressure keep sellers in control?
September just got a lot more interesting.

Bitcoin’s oldest holders are starting to become more active again.
According to recent on-chain data shared by CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, the 90-day moving average of spent UTXOs from wallets that have held BTC for more than five years has climbed to around 1,500 BTC.
That is roughly double the level seen in May.
For Bitcoin watchers, this is an interesting shift. Coins that have stayed untouched for five years or more are usually associated with long-term holders who are less likely to react to short-term market noise. When these coins start moving, traders naturally pay closer attention.
But there is an important detail here: moving BTC does not automatically mean selling BTC.
A spent UTXO simply means an old Bitcoin output was used in a transaction. The coins could be heading to an exchange, but they could also be moving to a new wallet, being consolidated, or transferred because of security concerns.
The recent activity is especially interesting because Bitcoin has been trading in a relatively tight range around the $80,000 area. When price is stuck in consolidation, increased movement from older holders can sometimes signal that bigger players are reassessing their positions.
There is also a possible security-related factor. Recent Coldcard-related concerns have encouraged some users to move funds into new wallet setups. That kind of migration can make old Bitcoin UTXOs appear “active” on-chain without representing actual market selling.
My view: I wouldn’t treat the 1,500 BTC figure as a bearish signal by itself. I’d watch where these coins are going. Large transfers toward exchanges would be more meaningful than simple wallet-to-wallet movement.
For now, OG activity is rising, but the real story will be whether this turns into sustained selling pressure—or simply old coins changing addresses.
Bitcoin’s next move may depend on what these long-dormant coins do next.
$BTC