加密交易笔记

1. In-depth Interpretation of 'Trump's Strategy' — A Carefully Designed Political Economy Game
1. Goal One: Precise 'Data Strike', Kidnapping the Federal Reserve
The Federal Reserve's Dependency: The Federal Reserve's decisions heavily rely on economic data, especially the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP), JOLTS job openings, unemployment rate, and other labor market data. This data is collected, organized, and published by federal employees from government agencies (such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics BLS).
Artificially Creating Data Distortion: Once the government shuts down, the release of this data will immediately stop. The Federal Reserve will be like 'flying in the dark', losing its most important navigational instrument. This will lead to several serious consequences:

1. Core Results of the Meeting: The conservatives achieved a great victory
Rate cut but not enough: The Federal Reserve decided to cut rates by 25 basis points (0.25%) at this meeting in 2025, which is a typical 'defensive rate cut'. Just like a doctor feels that a patient has mild cold symptoms and prescribes some medicine to prevent worsening, rather than immediately administering strong medication.
The dot plot reveals the truth: The latest 'dot plot' from Federal Reserve officials suggests that the pace of rate cuts will slow down in the remaining meetings of 2025. This clearly conveys the central bank's continued high vigilance against inflation and its reluctance to rapidly and significantly cut rates at the pace expected by the market (or Trump).

1. Current situation: Why is everyone "waiting"?
Now the whole world, from Wall Street big shots to Trump, is watching the Federal Reserve. It's like a long-awaited heavy rain, and everyone is waiting for the first drop to fall.
Waiting for what? Waiting for "interest rate cuts."
In simple terms: an interest rate cut means the Federal Reserve decides to lower the cost of borrowing for banks. When banks have lower costs, the loan interest rates for individuals and businesses will also decrease. This is akin to "injecting water" into the entire economy, which can stimulate investment and consumption, benefiting the stock market, real estate, and more.
Why now? Because US inflation (the rate of price increase) has already decreased from its peak, but there are signs of an economic slowdown. The Federal Reserve needs to walk a tightrope between "preventing a resurgence of inflation" and "avoiding an economic recession." If they cut rates too late, the economy may experience a "hard landing"; if they cut rates too early, inflation may return.

1. Why hasn't the CPI data stirred any reaction? — Because the answer has already been known!
It's like: Tomorrow the exam results will be released, but you already know from the teacher that you scored 90 points. So when the report card is actually issued, you certainly won't be excited to jump up.
So: The latest CPI (inflation data) has come out, and it's similar to what everyone guessed before (inflation is gradually cooling down). Therefore, the market has no reaction because the result has already been 'digested in advance.' Everyone is no longer concerned about 'how many points were scored,' but rather about 'based on this score, when will the parents (Federal Reserve) give pocket money (interest rate cuts)?'

The focus of the current market has shifted from 'Will there be a rate cut in September?' to 'How significant will the rate cuts be in the coming years?' The key to all of this lies in the 'dot plot' released by the Federal Reserve in September.
Next, let's break it down step by step:
1. Background: Why is market sentiment tense?
Imagine a summer where the weather is hot and stuffy (high interest rate environment), and everyone is looking forward to a refreshing downpour (rate cut) to cool things down. Previously, everyone predicted that the first rain in September would definitely come.
Expecting a cooling: But in recent weeks, the weather forecast has changed. Data shows it doesn't seem as stuffy anymore (inflation has eased but remains stubborn), so people are starting to doubt: 'Can it still rain in September?' Some even worry that if it doesn't rain at all, will the crops (economy) in the fields die of drought (recession)? — This is the process of the market transitioning from discussing 'whether or not to cut rates in September' to 'whether the U.S. economy is in recession.'

1. How to correctly understand the relationship between 'economic downturn' and the market?
"An economic downturn does not necessarily mean recession, and even if it enters a recession, it may still recover" is a very critical dividing line between professional investors and ordinary retail investors.
Plain interpretation:
You can think of the economy and the stock market (or cryptocurrency market) as two people:
Economy: is a person walking steadily on the ground. Whether he walks fast (good economy) or slowly (bad economy) depends on the road beneath his feet (various economic data).
Market: is a dog running forward. It always runs ahead of its owner, sometimes running too far (overly optimistic expectations), and sometimes running back to its owner (expectation adjustments).

The latest U.S. non-farm data is indeed not very optimistic, with employment increasing by only 22,000, which is not only one of the lowest levels in recent times but also significantly below market expectations. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate has risen to 4.3%, and although the absolute value is not extremely high, it has increased by 0.9 percentage points within a year, indicating that the labor market is weakening.
In this context, the market almost completely expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September. But the key question is: what is the reason for the rate cut? If it is due to risks or even signs of recession in the economy, it could actually be a signal to be wary of.

1. About Stablecoins
The core position of Binance: Binance is the world's largest stablecoin trading platform, handling about 70% of stablecoin transactions and is a key channel for stablecoins flowing into the market.
Development history: The concept of stablecoins originated from the Bitcoin community's 'colored coins'. USDT was born in 2014, but it really rose to prominence after 2017, thanks to the support of exchanges like Binance. Its second wave of growth was driven by providing a convenient alternative for users in regions like Asia who needed dollars but faced difficulties opening accounts.
Strong business model: The stablecoin business is one of the most profitable sectors in the crypto field. The model is simple: users deposit money, and the platform issues coins; users redeem, and the platform converts back to cash. This model has a low threshold, high liquidity, and huge market potential.