作手Trader

🔥 Public companies buy another 2,305 BTC in a week! Strategy holdings: 846,000 BTC—how long can the coin-hoarding flywheel keep turning?

Last week, Strategy and Strive collectively increased their holdings by 2,305 BTC. Strategy now holds 846,000 BTC, while Strive has 26,355 BTC. In total, publicly listed companies worldwide hold about 1.273 million BTC.
Many people see this number and immediately think: public companies are crazily hoarding coins—BTC will definitely keep rising in the long run.
But I’m more focused on one question:
Is Strategy’s “financing → buy BTC → stock price rises → keep financing” flywheel truly a perpetual engine?
Strategy’s playbook is actually very clear: it raises funds through issuing new shares, preferred stock, debt, and other methods, then puts that capital into BTC. As long as the market is willing to give MSTR a higher valuation premium relative to BTC, the company can more easily keep financing and keep buying coins.
That’s also why when MSTR rises, it often clearly outperforms BTC.
But the flywheel isn’t a perpetual motion machine.
Once BTC falls, or the market starts compressing MSTR’s premium relative to its BTC assets, the company’s financing capacity may decline—and MSTR could even experience a larger drawdown than BTC.
Moreover, Strategy has already sold BTC this year and executed actions like topping up its USD reserves. This precisely shows: companies hoard coins—they don’t only buy and never sell.
So when I look at MSTR now, I don’t just focus on “how many more BTC it bought.” I look at four things:
BTC trend, MSTR’s relative strength versus BTC, MSTR’s valuation premium, and the stock’s technical structure.
My trading logic is also simple:
When BTC strengthens → MSTR is stronger → break out → pullback and confirmation—then consider right-side opportunities.
If BTC is rising but MSTR is clearly lagging BTC, or the premium is contracting quickly, I’ll become more cautious.
My core view:
Public companies hoarding BTC is becoming an increasingly important capital allocation strategy. But what’s truly worth studying isn’t “who buys more”—it’s this:
Can these companies ultimately convert “holding BTC” into “increasing value per share”?
So BTC is the core asset; MSTR is a high-beta BTC tool with capital structure.
What do you think?

*(For discussion only. Not investment advice.)*

🔥 ORCL plunges 60% in one year! With $66.4B RPO, even that can’t stop the pullback—what exactly is the market trading in the AI sector?

Trading to watch: $ORCL $BTC $TAO

Oracle (ORCL) closed on September 26 at $137.10. If we calculate from the all-time high of $345.72 set on September 10, 2025, the maximum drawdown is about 60.34%.

Strangely, Oracle’s AI business hasn’t fallen apart:
Q1 revenue was $19.3B, up 30% year-over-year; cloud infrastructure revenue was $7.4B, up 121%; RPO reached $66.4B, and the company delivered more than 300,000 GPUs.

So why is the stock down so much?
I think the market is no longer trading the question of whether there is demand for AI—it’s trading this instead:
When will AI orders truly turn into cash flow and profits?

📊 I. AI demand is real, but the investment is huge

Oracle’s operating cash flow this quarter was about $23.1B, but capital expenditures were $28.5B. Free cash flow was roughly -$5.4B.
At the same time, the company raised about $19.9B through an ATM program.

This suggests the AI cloud battle is entering a phase of “heavy reinvestment.” There are plenty of orders, but that doesn’t mean profits will show up immediately.

⚠️ II. What does this mean for AI in crypto?

I won’t conclude the AI track is over just because ORCL is down 60%. But it at least reminds us:

If a tech giant with real customers, real revenue, and $66.4B in RPO starts facing market tests of capital expenditures and cash flow, then AI tokens in crypto—especially those with high FDV but lacking real protocol revenue—also need to face equally brutal valuation scrutiny.

For the future of AI/DePIN, I care more about: real users, real compute demand, and real protocol revenue.
Not just looking at the two words “AI.”

💡 III. My trading thesis

The long-term AI trend hasn’t ended, but the market may be shifting from “telling stories” to “looking for realization.”
So I’ll focus on:

1. ORCL: whether AI cloud revenue can keep growing at a high speed, and when capex will translate into cash flow;
2. Crypto AI: whether the project truly has a real revenue loop;
3. BTC: whether, after macro liquidity is drained, funds continue to concentrate in large-cap defensive assets.

🔥 My core view

AI isn’t over, but the pure AI narrative is undergoing cash-flow validation.

$GOOGL has already taken profit at 363, and then it dropped again. I’m currently staying in cash and waiting patiently for the next high-quality entry signal.#AI股持续上涨还有哪些投资机会 #比特币突破8.7万美元创八个月新高

The $GOOGL long positions I shared during last night’s live stream are already up. You can see the target price at 363.#比特币突破8.5万美元

🔥 Tonight 02:00 Fed decision! Rate hikes could dip first then rise; an unexpected hold could lead to a big surge. Where will $BTC go tonight? #美联储加息是否已成定局


At 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on September 17, the Fed will release its interest rate decision and the dot plot, with speeches by Warsh at 2:30.
Currently the market is pricing in a 25bp rate hike of about 92%—93%, with the target rate expected to rise to around 3.75%—4.00%. So I think the hike itself has already been largely priced in by the market.
In the past stretch, PPI has been stronger than expected, core CPI came in above forecasts, oil prices are up, and U.S. Treasury yields have been at high levels. On top of that, yesterday’s CLARITY Act procedural vote failed to move forward, and the market has been continuously digesting negative news.
So tonight I’m mainly watching two scenarios.
First: Hike 25bp as expected.
I actually think BTC’s first move could be a drop.
If the dot plot doesn’t show a clearly more hawkish surprise, after the market completes the emotional release, it may return to trading the idea of “is this the last hike?”, and combined with Warsh’s remarks not further strengthening hawkish expectations, BTC could rebound.
Second: Unexpectedly no rate hike.
Since the market has already priced in a 92%—93% chance of a hike, the biggest change would be the “expectations gap.”
If the market believes inflation pressure is easing and policy will turn more accommodative in the future, BTC and U.S. stocks could rally quickly.
But if the market interprets “no hike” as new risks appearing in the economy or financial markets, it could also see a first wave of sharp volatility.
So tonight you can’t only look at whether there is a hike—what really matters is:
What the dot plot says, and what Warsh says.
My trading plan:
A small-position long can continue to be observed, but I don’t plan to add heavily before the decision.
If BTC sharply drops after a hike as expected, I would rather wait for an opportunity.
What I’d like to see is:
Sharp drop → longs get liquidated and releases pressure → price stops falling → second retest holds and doesn’t break → OI stabilizes.
Once this kind of structure appears, then consider adding on the right-side.
If price keeps making new lows while OI rises again, I won’t just blindly buy the dip just because it has fallen a lot.
My core view:
The 25bp hike has already been priced in. What hasn’t been fully priced tonight is the dot plot and Warsh’s remarks.
So I’m more focused on whether, after the negative news is “priced in,” there’s still fresh selling pressure.
How do you think BTC will move tonight?

🚀 $AAPL 9 September 9 Press Conference: Can a Foldable iPhone Bring a Second Growth Curve?
On September 9, Apple held its autumn event. Besides watching for new iPhones, the market has also been eagerly anticipating the long-rumored first foldable iPhone.
My view: The new product is a catalyst, but what truly determines AAPL’s future upside is whether Apple can re-open growth.
📱 Foldable iPhone
If it launches, it could increase the share of high-end models and the average selling price, and also spur some existing users to upgrade.
But Huawei, Xiaomi, and others have already laid the groundwork in advance. So the key isn’t whether there is a foldable display—it’s whether Apple can turn it into a new, high-profit growth driver.
💰 Supply chain costs
Demand from AI data centers is driving up memory and storage prices, which will also increase Apple’s costs.
Raising prices could hurt sales; not raising prices could compress profit margins.
So AAPL faces:
Sales vs. profit margin
🌏 The supply chain is also changing
Apple is pushing for supply chain diversification and seeking more suppliers. Adding suppliers is beneficial for bargaining power, but certification, yield, and stability still need to be validated.
🤖 The biggest long-term variable: AI
Tim Cook has moved to become Chairman, and John Ternus has taken over as CEO.
What the market truly expects isn’t just a few more AI features, but:
AI + chip + system + hardware + services
whether it can form a complete ecosystem.
If AI truly drives upgrades and service growth, Apple could gain a new valuation logic.
📊 On the trade, I care most about three things:
After the event, will the stock price keep rising or spike and then pull back?
Can the new products raise ASP and profit margins?
Can AI become a new growth engine?
So:
Positive catalysts landing doesn’t necessarily mean the stock will definitely rise.
If the new products exceed expectations, AAPL could open up fresh upside imagination; if they merely meet expectations—while costs rise and AI still falls short of expectations—you also need to be wary of the good news being priced in.
🔥 What do you think?
A: Foldable iPhone + AI unlocks a second growth curve
B: The new products have already been fully priced in; supply chain and AI risks are higher
C: Wait until after the event to decide
Feel free to comment A/B/C + your target price for AAPL!

🔥 $BTC Surges 24% in August! One of the strongest Augustes since 2017—but now it’s stuck around 78,000: Can it return to 80,000 in September?

In August, $BTC bounced back from around 63,000 and climbed all the way back above 80,000 at its peak; it has now pulled back to around 78,000.
Behind this rally were both inflows into the spot BTC ETF and short-covering that helped push prices higher. August’s total gain was about 24%, making it one of the best-performing Augustes since 2017.
But as September arrived, the market environment began to change:
⚠️ After Jackson Hole, Fed Chair Warsh sent a hawkish signal, suppressing rate-cut expectations
⚠️ Escalation in the Iran–U.S. situation pushed oil prices up, with inflation concerns reigniting
⚠️ ETF fund flows started to fluctuate again, and market disagreement has become much more pronounced
So what’s worth thinking about now isn’t:
How much BTC has risen?
But rather:
🔥 With more and more bad news, why is BTC still holding around 77,000?
📍 Two key levels
🟢 77,000–77,500: Key support for the short term
As long as there isn’t a high-volume, valid breakdown below this level, the current pullback can still be seen—temporarily—as consolidation after a strong uptrend.
🔴 79,400–80,800: Main resistance zone
Especially the 80,000 mark.
If it regains 80K on renewed volume, bulls may take back the initiative; if repeated attempts fail, watch for long-term funds at the highs continuing to realize profits.
💡 My trading plan
🚀 Hold above 80K: Slightly bullish
⚠️ Sideways around 77K: Wait and see
📉 Break below 77K on heavy volume: Be prepared for further pullback
I won’t blindly chase after a 24% gain in August, and I also won’t conclude the bull market is over just because near-term macro conditions have weakened.
What really matters isn’t guessing the next move—it’s whether BTC breaks above 80K first, or breaks below 77K first.
Also, Strategy has recently bought another 4,603 BTC at an average price of about $80,318, bringing total holdings to 845,050 BTC. At least from this action, it appears some long-term capital is still continuing to accumulate BTC.

🔥 What’s your take on the first week of September?

👇 Leave A / B / C and your target price, and let’s see what the market ultimately answers.