SabTheTrader

Just take a quick look over the weekend: two sets of data for @Riverdotinc 🐱🌊

One side is $RIVER contract trading volume.

From the peak in March, it’s been steadily dropping; now trading is noticeably calmer. After breaking the previous low a few days ago, the price is still grinding slowly at low levels.

The other side is Conversion 3.0:

S6, Day 59: yesterday it converted 108,609 River Pts. The Actual Rate is currently around 0.004, still a bit far from the Ideal Rate of 0.01.

One looks at market heat; the other looks at the conversion of Pts.

S6 is only left with about a month. Keep observing whether anything new shows up next.

* NFA, DYOR.

A few days ago, I dismantled the uses of Privacy, RWA, DuskEVM, and $DUSK one by one.
Looking at each piece individually, they’re actually not that hard to understand.

What’s truly difficult about @Dusk is getting these four parts to form a closed loop.

If the whole system can really run, its ideal state would be:
Assets come in → users come in → transactions are generated → network demand is generated → more assets and users are attracted.

And they should be able to create demand for each other, rather than each one doing its own thing.

Also, if Dusk can truly take off later on, its advantages might not be only “privacy technology.”

There are already many people working on Privacy itself.

What’s truly hard to replicate might be having these elements exist together at the same time: technology + compliance framework + source of assets + real market entry.

So going forward, if I keep observing, I’d be more interested in seeing some more specific data, such as:
1️⃣ Are on-chain transactions and fees going up?
2️⃣ Is the staking ratio changing?
3️⃣ Does RWA have ongoing trading and settlement?
4️⃣ How is the token supply in circulation changing?

And on top of that, the supply side itself will also affect the outcome:
Can new demand outpace new supply and potential sell pressure?

That might be what ultimately determines whether $DUSK can truly capture the business-growth upside.

Let the data speak for itself.👀

#dusk

🌕 You can’t judge a project just by how big its business is—you also need to see whether those businesses ultimately create real demand for tokens. Today I want to take $DUSK apart and look at it.👀

After all, this kind of situation is pretty common in Crypto:
Whether a project’s business is doing well is one thing, but whether the token can actually capture demand from those businesses is another.

So I specifically looked into what $DUSK is doing within the entire Dusk network.

At the moment, DUSK is the native token of the whole network.

In simple terms:
▸DuskDS:
DUSK is used for Staking, Governance, and Settlement.

▸DuskEVM:
Developers run Solidity dApps, and users perform on-chain actions that require DUSK to pay Gas and transaction fees.

▸DuskVM:
Privacy applications executing also require DUSK as Gas.

From here, at least in logic, it all connects:
If, in the future, more assets are issued, more investors enter, and more applications are deployed on DuskEVM—leading to more transactions and settlement—then theoretically, those on-chain activities would increase usage of the token.

But everyone still needs to keep two things separate:
“More project adoption” ≠ “Token must necessarily appreciate.”
There’s a long road in between.😂

Also, what I want to observe next is:
For every piece of real business Dusk adds, how much real demand does it actually bring to the token?

Is it more Gas consumption?
More Staking?
More settlement demand?
Or more tokens being locked in the network long-term?

One layer deeper, we also need to see whether these newly added demands can outperform the token’s own ongoing increase in supply—and the potential sell pressure afterward.

Because in the end, what determines whether the token can truly capture the upside of Dusk’s business growth likely isn’t “how big the project is,” but rather:
For each increment in business growth, how much value is genuinely captured and settled into the token.

I think this is the most important data to watch next.👀

#dusk $DUSK @Dusk

I found that this whole RWA thing also often gets oversimplified by us.😂

Back when people talked about asset tokenization, everyone’s first reaction was probably:
Take a set of real estate, a stock, or a bond, split it into lots of pieces, and put them on the blockchain to trade.

But if you think about it carefully, if tokenization merely cuts an asset into 10,000 tokens, it doesn’t really solve the most troublesome problems in financial markets.

For example:
Who can buy?
How do we verify an investor’s identity?
Where are the ownership records kept after purchase?
Can the asset be freely transferred to someone else?
How do dividends and voting work?
How are settlement and reconciliation of funds and assets completed after a trade?
And when regulators or auditors need to review, how should disclosures be handled?

So only after seeing all this do I slowly start to think:
RWA may not be as simple as “cutting assets into pieces.”

More importantly, it might be about whether we can move the entire lifecycle—
issuance → investor onboarding → holding → transfer → trading → settlement—
that used to be spread across different institutions and different databases, onto the blockchain gradually.

That’s also why I can better understand why $DUSK keeps talking about Privacy, Selective Disclosure, and Regulated Finance.

Because if financial institutions really move the whole asset lifecycle onto the chain, but also conveniently expose their balances, positions, cash flows, and trading counterparties to everyone in the world…
that probably isn’t very realistic.😂

And what Dusk Trade, by @Dusk , is doing now isn’t just about “issuing an RWA token”—it also focuses on handling investor onboarding, wallet binding, controlled transfer, payments, and compliant settlement all together.

Only when all these things start running smoothly does RWA truly move forward.

Without that, even the biggest tokenization numbers may only amount to “registering” traditional assets on-chain.

So in the end, what matters may not be who tokenizes the most assets, but who can truly get this market running.👀
#dusk $DUSK @Dusk

When studying @Dusk , I’ve actually had a very real question:
Why are there so many projects in Crypto working on “privacy”? 🤔
After all, if it were simply about privacy-preserving transfers, there are already well-established projects in the market like ZEC and XMR.

So why do we still need Dusk today?

What Dusk wants to solve isn’t exactly the same problem. It places more emphasis on:
Privacy + Selective Disclosure + Regulated Finance.

In simple terms, it’s not aiming for: “No one can see anything.”
It’s more like: “Not everyone should see it, but the people who need to can.”
That difference is actually pretty important.

Because if traditional finance were moved to the blockchain at massive scale, full transparency could be a problem.

Say an institution puts its assets, transactions, and settlement entirely on a public chain—then competitors can open a block explorer and see its balances, positions, flows of funds, and even counterparties…

That level of transparency might be something ordinary crypto users have grown accustomed to, but it may not be acceptable to real financial institutions.

And what Dusk is targeting right now is this middle ground:
While protecting sensitive information like balances, transactions, and holdings, it also allows—when necessary—selective disclosure to regulators, auditors, or specific counterparties.

Seen this way, I can understand why there are now more and more projects focused on “privacy + compliance.”

But here’s the question I’m truly curious about:
Do institutions really need confidentiality—but can that need ultimately translate into real, large-scale on-chain usage?

Technically, it might be possible. But whether anyone truly *has to* use it is another matter.

So next, when I keep watching $DUSK , besides the price, I’ll be more interested in whether Dusk’s RWA, institutional issuance, trading, and settlement can gradually generate real usage.

If they can, then this path is actually not the same story as traditional privacy coins.

If they can’t, then “privacy + RWA + compliance” might ultimately just be a very polished narrative.

That might be the most worth continuing to observe. 👀

#dusk $DUSK @Dusk

Originally, $DUSK was running just fine, and today it also plunged along with the overall market. Right now it seems to be in a consolidation phase; liquidity over the weekend is likely to be a bit weaker too 🤔

While the price stays active, @Dusk has also indeed made some fundamental progress recently: the DuskEVM Testnet is already live, and developers can directly deploy and test using familiar Ethereum tools like Solidity and Hardhat.

And what Dusk truly wants to do isn’t just a regular public blockchain—it’s to combine privacy, compliance, and on-chain settlement, targeting the regulated onchain finance and RWA market. ((That said, aren’t there more and more projects talking about privacy + compliance lately?

So next, I’m going to observe $DUSK while looking at two things at the same time:
① After this round of上涨, whether the price can hold key structural levels;
② Whether DuskEVM, RWA, and cooperation with institutional players can gradually turn into real on-chain demand.

Having both a price trend and a compelling narrative is of course ideal, but ultimately we still have to see whether the market is willing to keep pricing that narrative.

#dusk @Dusk

Oh my god, TermMax’s posting competition is way too fierce hahaha—there isn’t much traffic. But today I still have to finish talking about what I didn’t cover. It’s also to help myself and everyone understand things better: @TermMax . ៸៸¯ᗜ¯៸៸

Yesterday I talked about Fixed Rate. Today let’s take a look at @TermMax another product:
“ Vaults｜Earning Vaults ”

The具体 process is: you deposit USDC into it, and the Vault will help allocate your funds into different Fixed Rate markets—so you don’t have to pick markets one by one yourself. It’s a lot more convenient.

For example, if I put in 1000 USDC, the APY on the page is currently 4.83%. Assuming the yield rate stays the same:
👉 About 1003.94 USDC in 1 month
👉 About 1048.30 USDC in 1 year
There are also 72x Points.

Summary: yesterday’s Fixed Rate is you choosing the markets yourself; today’s Vault is one that helps you allocate.

⚠️ 4.83% is the current APY, not something locked in and unchanged after you deposit.

* NFA, DYOR.

#TermMax $TMX

$TMX’s TGE time is finally set at @TermMax , and the event has also arrived at the Binance Square! 🎉

First of all, remember to complete the newly launched Booster event today—it's very simple, and you can finish it in just a few minutes～

The answer to the third “Learn About TermMax” question is: ABACA ✅

After you’re done, don’t forget to go back to the event page to check your task status—don’t finish everything and forget to confirm it 😼

Next, let’s all wait together for the $TMX TGE on August 25!

#TermMax

$DOS , why did you reject me?～

Before going to bed, I’ll write down the trades I made today. It’s probably the two prettiest long positions I’ve taken in the last four years of trading NQ: 155 points & 250 pips.☕️

Coincidentally, today is also the fourth anniversary of trading NQ.

Over the past month, I can clearly feel my progress. Whether it’s waiting for a chance to enter or patiently waiting for the take profit, I’m steadier than before, and I’m increasingly trusting my judgment. Thanks to many trading gurus at home and abroad for their sharing—whether it’s books or videos. And thanks to myself, the one who never stops learning, practicing, and reviewing.៸៸¯ᗜ¯៸៸

My biggest takeaway recently can be summarized in one sentence from Livermore’s *Reminiscences of a Stock Operator*:
“Before the time is ripe, no matter how hard you work, it’s still all in vain.”

The direction may be right, but if the entry timing is wrong, it won’t just result in an unnecessary stop-out and draining your energy—it may also affect the original correct judgment. So I need to seriously write this line into my trade review journal.

These weeks I’ve posted less on here too, because I’m watching the market the moment I get up. In between I squeeze in cooking and cleaning the apartment, and then I keep watching the market all the way until I sleep at 3 or 4 a.m. Time just flies by.

At the same time, I don’t know what I should post. For one thing, I haven’t had many things worth writing lately. For another, I feel my research is still relatively shallow—if it ends up affecting others because of that, it wouldn’t be good.

Is it still too much pride and too cautious a problem? Looks like I probably won’t be able to become a KOL after all, haha. So what this account posts next will just be on a whim, haha.

If there are trades worth recording, I’ll post a trade review. If there’s life I want to share, I’ll post that. Occasionally I’ll just show off my cat.🐱

Anyway, I hope my recent trading condition can keep going. Other people’s models, trading insights, and trading habits can only serve as references. What’s truly useful are the things that you’ve tested yourself—and that genuinely fit you.

For example, I’m a day trader. If I can catch big moves, that’s great. If not, making a bit of profit during the day to cover living expenses, handling utilities and bills, and taking good care of myself and the cat’s life—that’s also more than good enough.

In the end, trading is still for living.

I sincerely wish every trader good physical and mental health, and the ability to live your life well—nothing matters more than that.

The Sharpe ratio isn’t about whether BTC is going up or not—it’s about whether the gains are worth the risk given such large volatility.

Now that BTC’s Sharpe ratio has fallen to a low since 2022, it indicates that the risk-reward for holding BTC over the past year has been poor: volatility is still there, but returns haven’t kept up. This doesn’t necessarily mean an immediate top or bottom, but it suggests that institutional capital will be more cautious and the market will place greater emphasis on fund flows and key support levels.

#比特币夏普比率创2022年来新低

Vitalik publishes a “Lean Ethereum” roadmap.

This time, the focus isn’t on a new upgrade going live right away. Instead, it’s the long-term direction for Ethereum over the next few years: Lean Ethereum.

💡 The core can be summarized in one sentence:
Make Ethereum lighter, faster, and easier to verify.

Ethereum’s problems are no longer just about expensive gas, or too many L2s and fragmented user experience. The protocol itself is becoming increasingly complex.

More complexity means higher development difficulty, harder security audits, and it becomes harder for ordinary people to understand. The cost of running and verifying nodes also keeps rising.

So this time, the direction isn’t to keep bolting on more features to Ethereum. Instead, it’s about reorganizing the underlying layers: while maintaining security and decentralization, make Ethereum simpler, more robust, and better suited for long-term scalability.

In this roadmap, several key points are worth paying attention to:
1️⃣ Improve L1 performance
The goal isn’t to have L1 take over all the work from L2. The goal is to make the mainnet itself stronger—with faster finality and higher throughput.

2️⃣ ZK will become more important
In the future, Ethereum will rely more on technologies like STARKs / zkEVM to reduce verification costs, rather than having every node repeat large amounts of computation.

3️⃣ Post-quantum security is on the agenda
Quantum computing may not break all cryptographic systems tomorrow, but planning ahead is necessary.

4️⃣ Privacy will become a more central direction
Not treating privacy as an add-on feature, but expecting Ethereum in the future to value privacy experience at the protocol level.

5️⃣ Reduce protocol complexity
This may be the most important point.
Once a system grows large enough, the real danger isn’t “not being flashy enough,” but being so complex that no one can fully understand it.

Of course, this isn’t a short-term, pump-and-dump kind of positive catalyst.

It’s more like a long-term engineering draft for 2026 to 2029, so I won’t interpret it as “ETH is about to skyrocket.”

But in the long run, at least it shows that the Ethereum team has realized:
Telling stories isn’t enough.

If these directions can truly be implemented step by step in the future, that’s the key to Ethereum continuing to maintain its position as the underlying public chain.
#vitalik公布精简以太坊路线图 $ETH

The U.S. says the action is intended to respond to Iran’s attacks on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and accuses Iran of violating the ceasefire conditions first.

Iran then launched retaliatory strikes, firing missiles and drones at U.S.-linked military targets located in Kuwait and Bahrain. At the same time, Iran accused the United States of undermining the ceasefire and subsequent diplomatic efforts.

So, more accurately, it is not yet that the U.S. and Iran have officially announced withdrawing from or terminating the ceasefire agreement. Rather, both sides have already resumed substantive hostilities, and the ceasefire is entering a state where it could collapse at any moment.

And the most market-relevant thing to watch this time remains the Strait of Hormuz.

Earlier, as the ceasefire took effect and some merchant ships resumed passage, the market began to unwind the war premium, and oil prices clearly fell.

Now, with merchant ships again coming under attack, the U.S. and Iran are re-engaging over control of the strait, and the market needs to reassess three issues:
1️⃣ Will navigation through the Strait of Hormuz be obstructed again?
2️⃣ Will Iran expand its strikes on merchant ships or energy facilities?
3️⃣ Will the U.S. retaliation escalate from limited military targets to a broader scope?

Since the news broke over the weekend, the traditional market has not yet fully repriced it.

After the market opens on Monday, first watch whether Brent and WTI gap higher, and whether gold, the U.S. dollar, and the VIX rise in sync.

For the crypto market and the Nasdaq, the more direct short-term pressure comes from risk-off sentiment and rising energy prices.

But this also should not be understood simply as: “war means oil must surge and risk assets must definitely fall.”

If merchant ships can still maintain passage and the strikes remain limited to military facilities, the market may only trade the war premium briefly. The truly dangerous signal would be a widespread shutdown of navigation in the strait, or attacks on key oil infrastructure.

So instead of rushing to chase the headlines, it’s better to first focus on the real conditions of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

Whether the ceasefire agreement has been formally torn up is one thing; whether crude oil can be shipped out smoothly is where the market will actually cast its vote with capital.

#美伊停火协议破裂

For those trading the Nasdaq $NQ every day, well, yesterday's drop of 2.2% is actually pretty 'normal' given the recent market action.

Recently, the Nasdaq's volatility has really picked up, with ±2% daily moves happening multiple times:
June 5: -4.18%
June 10: -1.98%
June 11: +2.54%
June 15: +3.07%
June 23: -2.20%

So in the context of the current market, it's not as dramatic as the so-called 'Black Tuesday' 😅

Moreover, this drop was quite concentrated:

- The semiconductor index fell by about 7.9%
- Micron $MUB dropped around 13%
- Nvidia $NVDAB fell about 4.1%
- Yet the Dow only slipped 0.09%
- Of the 11 S&P sectors, 6 are still in the green

This indicates that it's not a full-blown market panic sell-off, but rather a capital shift away from previously high-flying AI, chip, and overvalued tech stocks.

Micron is set to hold its Q3 earnings call on Wednesday, June 24 at 4:30 PM EDT (which translates to June 25 at 4:30 AM Beijing time, and 5:30 AM Japan time). As one of the focal points of this semiconductor sell-off, we'll see if its results and guidance can stabilize chip stock sentiment and give the Nasdaq a breather.

#Nasdaq down 2.2%

The Ethereum Foundation is set to slash its budget by 40%. The news is legit, but the cut pertains to the operational budget for 2026, not a 40% reduction in ETH holdings, nor is Ethereum halting development.

The foundation also confirmed the layoff of 54 positions, about 20% of the total staff.

So, this isn’t just about saving cash; it's a clear organizational trim and financial adjustment.

What impact does this have on ETH?
The layoffs won’t stop the network from producing blocks, nor will they directly change ETH's issuance, burn rate, or staking rewards.

The real concern is whether the reduction in budget will weaken R&D capacity:
Will upgrades be delayed?
Will core developers leave?
Will client security, privacy, and ZK research slow down?

Vitalik also acknowledged that this will result in losing some experienced engineers and research capability, so it can’t simply be interpreted as "higher efficiency post-layoffs."

However, a budget cut isn’t all doom and gloom.

In the past, the foundation needed to sell off some ETH or other assets to keep the lights on. With reduced expenses, theoretically, the amount of ETH that needs to be sold will decrease. Plus, the foundation has already started staking around 70,000 ETH, hoping to use the staking rewards to bolster its treasury.

That said, a 40% budget cut doesn’t mean that ETH selling pressure will drop directly by 40%; that's not the primary factor driving the price.

So my take on this situation is:

Short-term bearish.
The market sees "40% budget cut + 20% layoffs," and the initial reaction is likely to be one of lack of funds, turmoil, and slowed development. Especially since ETH is already lagging behind BTC, such news can amplify negative sentiment.

But in the medium to long term, it depends on whether Ethereum can continue to deliver.
If upgrades proceed smoothly, and core developers don’t keep leaving, the foundation’s finances might actually become healthier, and this adjustment could simply be a necessary trim.
If subsequent upgrades are delayed, security capabilities decline, and the community further fractures, then it will genuinely turn into a bearish fundamental for ETH.

A 40% cut is indeed alarming, but what truly determines ETH's value isn’t how much less the foundation is spending, but whether Ethereum can continue to push forward after these cuts.

#以太坊基金会将削减40%预算

This week's key economic data and event calendar, for those trading US stocks, take a look before you dive in.

* Data source: Jinshi Data

Does anyone know when $O is going to hit Binance's spot market?

The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has dropped to its lowest level since 1983.

The latest data shows that the US SPR is down to about 340 million barrels, with a weekly decrease of around 8.9 million barrels.

This news aligns perfectly with our previous analysis on the US-Iran deal.

As US-Iran relations cool, expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz increase, and the market begins to price in the return of Middle Eastern crude oil, pushing the war premium out further.

However, at the same time, the US's own strategic oil reserves are now at a 40-year low, with Cushing inventories also nearing low levels.

These two situations are not contradictory.

In the short term, we look at:
Whether the deal will be finalized, if the strait can reopen, and how much more crude oil will re-enter the market.

In the mid-term, we assess:
Whether the actual supply recovery is fast enough and how much inventory the US has left to buffer against risks.

In essence, the peace agreement is responsible for driving oil prices down.
But low inventories serve as a reminder to the market that oil prices might not stay low as easily as we think.

Current prices:
WTI: dropped from about $87.71 to $80.66, a cumulative decrease of about -8.0%;
Brent: dropped from about $90.38 to $82.92, a cumulative decrease of about -8.3%;

This indicates that the market is already pricing in the US-Iran deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

However, what we really need to monitor next is whether oil prices can hold at these lower levels.

If the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz falls short of expectations, or shipping and insurance costs don't decrease, or if the US-Iran deal faces further complications, the rebound in crude oil could happen quickly.

And once the US starts to refill the SPR, that will also create renewed demand for crude oil.

Therefore, this phase is still relatively bullish for NQ and US stocks in the short term:
Falling oil prices help ease inflation expectations and provide some breathing room for tech and growth stock valuations.

But the safety net in the oil market is already quite thin.

The market currently believes in peace. Just hope this peace doesn’t waver again.🤣

#美国战略石油储备创1983年来新低