Roger波杰克

Nvidia reports after the market closes next Tuesday. The market has stopped paying attention to the $108 billion mark and is now waiting for $113 billion.

With expectations raised this high, merely meeting them would count as a miss. Once Nvidia reports, downstream optical modules and the AI compute supply chain will be repriced too—either they rally again, or they all get hit.

$NVDAB

The FDA issued a safety communication today: all GLP-1 weight-loss injections must add a warning to their labels that they may, in rare cases, cause the eye condition NAION, which can lead to reduced vision or even blindness.

This decision is based on clinical trials and post-marketing adverse reaction reports, meaning cases have already been reported. Semaglutide has long been seen as the most certain bet in this space, but regulators have now raised a safety concern. Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are both in this market, and the outlook is no longer quite so clear-cut.

$LLYB

B200 computing rental rates have surged 74% in three months—and they’re still rising.

NVIDIA has been battered by gossip these past few days, but rental rates don’t lie: downstream customers are still paying real money to scramble for cards, and computing power is nowhere near oversupplied. The first to cash in on higher rental rates are computing-power leasing companies with cards and data centers. In the A-share market, Chuangxin Data, Runze Technology, and Foxconn Industrial Internet are all in this space.

$NVDA

Oppenheimer upgraded AMD to Outperform today, betting that data center revenue will rise 135% next year. AI stocks are still getting hammered in premarket trading, so making a call like this now takes real conviction.

When bad news keeps piling up near the lows, someone’s usually up to something. The AI selloff has probably run its course, and institutions are starting to change their tune at the lows—that’s more worth listening to than the voices calling a top. In China’s A-share market, the company most closely tied to AMD is Tongfu Microelectronics, which handles its packaging and testing.

$AMD

Hong Kong stocks surged 257 points intraday, only to be dragged down in the end by Meituan, which fell more than 6%. The Shenzhen Component Index was still up 1.2% in the morning, but turned negative by the close, finishing at the day’s low.

Taiwan stocks rose nearly 5% the same day, yet the three major institutional investors were net sellers of NT$94.5 billion, using the rally to unload shares. This Asia-Pacific rally and retreat from the highs sends one message: rally highs are for getting out, not chasing in. Those who chased the highs today are all left holding the bag.

Moderna continued to hit new highs.

Earnings beat expectations. On 11/09, it reached an intraday high of $280.8, a 52-week high, and closed at $269, up 5.8%. A year ago, it was still at $22; in September, it was around $140.

Last week, I said this pharma-led rally had entered its third phase: immersed in pharma. The main theme is simple and hasn’t changed.

$MRNAON

Nvidia’s largest buyer in Southeast Asia dragged Jensen Huang into an intelligence scandal.

Megaspeed was spun off from gaming company 7th Avenue in 2023. Century Huatong is a shareholder in 7th Avenue, with about a 10% stake. Its early managing director was Alice Huang (Huang Le), whose husband was also once jailed for smuggling Nvidia graphics cards. At a drinking party in Taipei in 2024, she said, “I bet I can get Jensen to come,” and Jensen Huang showed up.

The New York Times found that a Malaysian affiliate of Megaspeed had bought at least $4.8 billion worth of Nvidia equipment in less than two years. When U.S. officials visited the data center, large numbers of servers were still unopened. A U.S. intelligence memo assessed that she had been recruited by China’s Ministry of State Security. On Sunday, Jensen Huang wrote to employees, admitting he had been unfaithful to his wife, and the board launched an independent investigation.

People in the computing industry had known about the relationship since June. As supply channels tightened, B300s on the Shenzhen spot market were being hyped to 20 million yuan apiece.

With profits reaching 300%, people aren’t even afraid of the gallows. The tighter chip controls get, the more people are willing to do this business.

$NVDAB

Direct API access. Same model, different providers.

The same benchmark can score anywhere from 37% to 93%. You’ll never know how much they’ve cut corners. Resellers sell your data on to others while passing off cheaper models under Claude’s name.

Sterling, launched today by @miranetwork, runs five checks on every provider behind every model: model identity, tool calling, whether parameters are followed, silent failures, and claimed context length. Scores are publicly displayed on the verification page, and providers that fail verification won’t receive your requests.

That’s where the “full-power” guarantee comes from: not the providers’ own claims, and not developers testing their own models by their own rules, but Mira monitoring the entire market from the outside using the same set of tests.

Claude is first, at half price. Pay with USDC or $MIRA . Your chance to get full-power Claude for half price.

$MIRA

$QQQON nearly hit a circuit breaker, then fell 1% after hours and found support at the previous high from the end of 2025.

It stabilized, so I bought a little more.

I didn't expect semiconductors and the indices to fall like this. Healthcare didn't hold up either.

Value is back, and the old guard is rallying.

The stock market these days is all about eating $MCDON, shopping on $PDDON, and wearing $NKEON. Those were the golden days for carbon-based lifeforms.

It’s uncertain whether semiconductor stocks have bottomed out in the short term. If they rebound, the old guard may pull back, making for a good entry point.

Version: Soaked in Medicine

The MRNA perpetual on Binance surged nearly 5% in a single 4-hour candle overnight on 11-04, reaching around 246 and nearing the previous high above 250 from late October. Back in September, it was still around 140.

I’ve said before that this round of healthcare leadership has three stages: savings are king, standing in the light, and being soaked in medicine. We’re now in the third stage.

Is there a bear market?

$MRNAON

Until Chinese New Year, this may be the last 🍑🐔

Relatively predictable policies and liquidity

Caught 🏠👩, missed 👮‍♂️🍚

I saw nine_'s take: The next 3–6 months may be the last window of opportunity. After that, the market will be much more boring, so we need to prepare for winter in advance.
- Project teams: TGE as soon as you can; market liquidity will become scarcer, making it increasingly difficult
- KOLs: Build up your cash flow through multiple channels
- Retail investors: Protect your ammo; don't spend recklessly

$BTC

Not a single demo email was sent, yet this batch of newcomers got signed to Beatport’s Label of the Year.

La Zic Records is a label founded in 2024 by Milan-born, London-based DJ and producer Cristina Lazic. This year, it won Beatport’s 2025 Hype Label of the Year award in Ibiza.

When scouting new talent, she skipped the demo inbox and opened submissions on Pacer:
- More than 400 artists submitted their work
- The label selected 20 tracks for a public vote, which received more than 5,000 votes
- The six artists with the most votes were signed to the fourth volume of the compilation, “Zodiac Circus”

The compilation launched on October 22 and premiered the same day during Amsterdam Dance Event (ADE), with Alex Branson, Beatport’s Senior Vice President of Industry Partnerships, also on stage.

Pacer is an AI music tool in KOR’s product suite.
KOR aims to build an App Store for creative assets: verifying works on-chain, connecting them with buyers, and settling payments in stablecoins—all running on Base from end to end.
The La Zic deal shows that the discovery and connection piece works.

Here’s a look at the ecosystem behind it:
- Chain: Base, a Coinbase-incubated L2, where more than 150,000 KOR IDs have already been minted
- Funding: $7.5 million Series A, backed by 1kx and Blockchain Capital, at a $100 million valuation; the company has officially disclosed over $2 million in gross product revenue
- Regulation: The EU MiCA white paper has been filed and published in Malta
- Market: Trading opens November 4 at 22:00 Beijing time

Three numbers to consider:
- 10 billion tokens in total, with approximately 22.87%—about 2.29 billion tokens—in circulation at launch
- The team holds 15% and investors 22.38%; nothing unlocks at launch, and the first 10% is released only after one year
- Series A valuation: $100 million

As creation gets cheaper and cheaper, discovery and getting paid become the scarce parts. That’s the segment KOR is betting on—and it’s building on Base, aligning with the chain’s characteristics and appeal.

$KOR

Sequoia co-leader Alfred Lin has made Kalshi’s 2020 Series A deck public
18 pages. Not a single mention of Polymarket—just one thing: licenses

Alfred Lin, one of Sequoia’s two leaders (former COO of Zappos, and an investor in Airbnb and DoorDash), has made public the entire deck Kalshi used to pitch Sequoia back then.
When the deck was made, Kalshi hadn’t yet obtained a license and hadn’t made a single trade.
In February 2021, it raised a $30 million Series A led by Sequoia. Last week, it just closed its Series G: $1 billion at a $40 billion valuation.

The moat, according to slide 7 of the deck:
- Getting a CFTC license takes an average of 1–2 years
- Its partner is the only clearinghouse able to clear event contracts
- Once liquidity takes hold, no one can dislodge it
The goal back then was to reach $5.1 billion in monthly trading volume and $370 million in annualized revenue within five years.

The hottest prediction market in 2020 was actually Polymarket:
- It launched in June, with on-chain trading using USDC; trading volume topped $1 million in three months
- On-chain trading volume was about $26 million in the month of the election
- Kalshi was still waiting for approval. It didn’t launch to the public until July 2021, and its cumulative trading volume in its first two months was only a few hundred thousand dollars

But Polymarket didn’t have a license:
- In January 2022, the CFTC found it to be an unregistered trading venue and fined it $1.4 million, forcing it to block U.S. users
- Three years later, founder Shayne Coplan paid $112 million to buy the licensed exchange and clearinghouse QCEX, allowing Polymarket to return to the U.S.

Today, Kalshi’s annualized trading volume exceeds $1 trillion, and annualized revenue from its non-sports business exceeds $1 billion. It surpassed its five-year goal long ago.
The claim on slide 7 of the deck that “getting a license takes an average of 1–2 years” was borne out by Polymarket over nearly four years and $112 million.

Meta, Anthropic, and OpenAI—the money has hit a snag for all three big AI spenders in a single week:

- Meta: S&P downgraded its credit outlook to negative; free cash flow turned negative for the first time in Q3, and now it plans to sell $95 billion in new shares
- Anthropic: Blackstone, the lead investor in its chip financing, changed its tune and expects it to get only a BB rating (the highest junk-grade rating) after its IPO
- OpenAI: According to the FT, its fundraising target was cut from $30 billion to $20 billion; SoftBank, which invested $64.6 billion in it, saw its cost of default protection hit 432 basis points on 10/20, a four-year high

The bond market is pulling back first:
- Nvidia-backed CoreWeave saw its cost of default protection briefly top 1,100 basis points
- Oracle is down to the last rung of investment grade; its cost of default protection topped 300 basis points in October, putting it in junk-bond territory

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said on 10/22 that what’s lacking now is capital.
Has all the bad news been priced in? To short it further from here, you’d need a company to actually blow up.

$NVDAB $ORCLB $CRWVB

OpenAI cut its price, and it still hasn’t sold out.

The FT reports: OpenAI CEO Altman has cut this funding round from $30 billion to about $20 billion, and the valuation from $1.4 trillion to $1.25 trillion. The initial closing still can’t even reach $20 billion.

Some investors have voluntarily reduced their subscription amounts. The largest investment is still from the UAE consortium led by Abu Dhabi’s MGX. The subscription deadline is Friday, specifically to get it done before Anthropic goes public in mid-November.

That same day, the Nasdaq fell nearly 3%, down 7.8% from its October 6 high.

The primary market is starting to cut AI valuations on behalf of the secondary market.

$MSFTB

First buy up all the memory, then complain that your computer’s memory is going to waste.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said on Stripe co-founder Collison’s podcast that DRAM sits in everyone’s computer and is used only 5% of the time—“quite terrible”—and should be centralized in the cloud.

Last year, OpenAI signed letters of intent with Samsung and SK Hynix for 900,000 DRAM wafers a month, an estimated 40% of global supply.

Intel said this week that memory is too expensive for PCs to sell. Shipments are expected to fall 12% this year and another 10% next year. Its stock plunged 23% after hours.

The AI PC story is over. From now on, computers will be rented.

$INTCB

Healthcare and $PEPE weathered this wave of steep declines, so those who listened still have ammo in hand.

The healthcare bet is Eli Lilly $LLYB ; its earnings beat expectations, and the stock continued making new highs.

There’s only one choice to make next: buy the dip in beaten-down AI stocks, or keep holding strong assets.

Eli Lilly earnings beat expectations, hitting another new high.

On October 20, Eli Lilly rose more than 4% intraday, climbing above $1,290 and surpassing its August 19 closing record of $1,280. Tonight, earnings beat expectations, and the stock continued to rise.

$LLYON soaking in meds to dodge the crash—steady happiness.

$PEPE started, would Brother Sun ever harm you? 😁

Yesterday Brother Sun’s associated address withdrew another 46.5 trillion PEPE from Poloniex, and I followed. Today, $PEPE 24-hour rose by about 13%.