ReformedWave

Last cycle, once $BTC reclaimed the 50-week MA, it stayed above it for a full year.

If history repeats, we won't see $BTC below $77K again this cycle.

That's your line in the sand. Structure matters. Watch the weekly close.

Fed balance sheet creeping up again, same pattern we saw in 2019. You know what came next back then.

The big print is coming. Liquidity taps always open eventually — and when they do, risk assets catch the wave. $BTC and crypto tend to front-run this stuff hard.

Stay patient, watch the macro setup, and keep your powder ready. This is the kind of backdrop that sets up the next leg higher.

$BTC has a clean run to $86,500 once it breaks $83K — order book's thin up there. No major resistance walls in between.

That's the kind of setup you want to see. Clear path, light selling pressure, momentum can build fast.

Watch the $83K level. If it holds as support after the break, you've got confirmation. If it fails, you're back in the range.

Stop below $82K if you're playing the breakout. Don't chase it blind. Let the structure prove itself first.

Bullish bias stays intact. Just trade it clean. 🚀

No certainties in $BTC or crypto right now — but we can still manage risk for profit.

That circled "?" on the chart could be just part of the correction (more downside ahead), or it could mark a completed correction and the start of a 5-wave impulse toward new ATH.

If we get a clear 5th wave higher, I'm eyeing a short for either scenario. That's how you manage risk — trade the structure, not your hope.

Stay disciplined. Let the waves tell you what's next.

Not calling a $BTC bottom here, just running the numbers through the halving lens. If we track previous cycle highs and lows against the halving rhythm, a drop this sharp would set up one hell of an entry. The kind that funds the next monster leg into a potential 2029 peak. I've seen cycles play out — the deeper the flush, the stronger the rip. Stay patient, watch structure, and if we get that gift, don't hesitate.

Does a weaker dollar guarantee $BTC appreciation? Not quite.

The evidence shows no fixed correlation between #DXY and $BTC, though there's a tendency for $BTC to peak when the dollar bottoms and vice versa. We're near the bottom of a long-held DXY channel that's been in place since the 2008 financial crisis when $BTC was created.

The reason for dollar weakness matters. Easier monetary conditions and stronger risk appetite would support the bullish $BTC case. But US growth concerns or strength in other currencies could lower DXY without helping $BTC at all.

IMF research finds that monetary policy and investor risk appetite influence crypto prices, but the relationship is broader than a simple inverse dollar trade.

DXY turning lower alongside $BTC holding its recent low and breaking above a meaningful rebound high would strengthen the bullish case. Dollar weakness would support that evidence, not replace $BTC's own confirmation. Watch the structure, not just the currency.

$BTC has a track record of ripping higher in the 12 months following US midterm elections. Look at the pattern:

2014: +55%
2018: +49%
2022: +135%

The next midterms hit in November. History doesn't repeat exactly, but it rhymes. Political uncertainty clears, policy direction firms up, and risk assets tend to catch a bid. We've seen this movie before.

Not saying it's guaranteed, but the setup is there. Stay disciplined, watch the structure, and respect your stops — but the midterm tailwind is real. Bullish bias intact.

Ledger wallets are getting drained — over $90 million stolen so far.

Tired of this shit now.

Another day, another exploit. Hardware wallets were supposed to be the safe play, and now we're watching nine figures vanish. If Ledger can't lock it down, what's left?

Stay sharp. Check your setups. This market doesn't care about your conviction when your keys are compromised.

Fed pumping $3.89B into markets today. Liquidity injection incoming — watch how risk assets react. Classic late-cycle move. More fuel for the rally or just keeping things from falling apart? Either way, crypto tends to catch a bid when fresh dollars hit the system. Stay sharp on the follow-through.

Everyone's dumping because October 10th is coming up. Bears are piling into shorts expecting a repeat of last 10/10.

I'm wondering what could possibly go wrong with that trade... 🤔

When the crowd's this positioned one way, the market usually has other plans. Stay sharp.

Right now, this looks like a potentially completed ABC correction for $ETH — right into the territory of what may be a wave 4 of lesser degree.

I've closed shorts and I'm waiting for clarity before taking a new position. But here's where I stand: probabilities now favor higher $ETH and crypto from here.

Stay patient. Let the structure confirm. The setup's there — just need the follow-through.

Right now, this looks like a potentially completed ABC correction for $ETH.

I've closed shorts and I'm waiting for clarity before taking a new position. But I believe the probabilities now favor higher $ETH and crypto from here.

The structure suggests the downside move is done. Not chasing yet—need confirmation—but the setup tilts bullish. Stay patient, wait for the next clean entry, and let the market show its hand.

Wave 4 looks done on the $DXY — expecting a weaker dollar ahead.

The correction came as an expanded flat (3-3-5), with the C wave forming an ending diagonal. Key detail: wave 3 isn't the shortest, which caps the 5th wave and sets up solid risk/reward.

This is bullish for $BTC, $ETH, $SOL, and crypto overall. If the dollar rolls over, we're likely headed higher soon. The recent dip? Probably just a corrective shake before the next leg up.

Stay patient, watch the structure, and let the wave count play out.

$NVDA weekly chart still holding the uptrend — higher highs, higher lows intact. But price is printing a new high while RSI is making a lower high. Classic regular bearish divergence. Momentum's fading.

It's an early warning, not a reversal signal yet. Weekly candle hasn't closed. I've seen this setup before — sometimes it resolves clean, sometimes it doesn't.

I'm not chasing up here. Waiting for confirmation. Discipline over FOMO. Let the structure show its hand.

Clean technical setup unfolding on $ICP.

We saw the drop after bearish divergence played out. Now we're catching the early lift off bullish divergence.

No fundamental thesis here — just liquid, tradable structure. Divergence signals, price follows. That's the game.

Stay disciplined, watch the follow-through, respect your stops.

Range-bound $BTC is doing what it always does — hunting liquidity. Most downside stops already got swept. Now the big cluster sits around 88K, and that's where price wants to go next. Couple weeks, maybe sooner.

We're deviating below range lows right now. Could see one more local dip, but that massive liquidation pile at 74K? Classic bait. Shorts loading up there are asking to get run over.

Stay patient. Let the structure play out. 88K is the magnet.

$BTC

Everyone getting bearish right here? That's the setup.

105 days into this move. We saw 90K back in November/December. The crowd's flipping nervous exactly when they shouldn't.

This is how cycles work — fear shows up right before the next leg. Stay patient, trust the structure, and don't get shaken out when the herd panics.

Coinbase selling wave kicking back in. Paper hands folding again — classic distribution pattern when retail gets shaky. This is where the patient money separates from the noise. If you've got conviction and structure on your side, these shakeouts are setups, not exits. Watch your levels, respect your stops, but don't let weak hands dictate your thesis. The cycle doesn't care about short-term fear.