翻跟斗的翻

#BTC #ETF
My views on the adoption of ETFs and subsequent trends:
First of all, I think passing is a high probability event. This is just my opinion. Nowadays, there are quite a few people who say they will not pass.

Assumptions:
Everyone is paying attention to ETFs
Everyone has placed their bets.
Everyone knows the so-called "good things are bad when they are cashed in"

In a market where everyone knows where the market will go, how exactly will the market go?
This is a very interesting question.
So what exactly will the trend be?

The moment the news is announced, prices will rise quickly. It is recognized that 5w is the limit
Because short sellers want to close their positions. Of course, there may also be people who buy in hindsight, and these people may be at risk of being trapped on the hill.

After the upward surge, there will be a decline after the "good news is realized". This kind of drop is more likely to be a negative drop.

There is another possibility, if everyone's expectations have been priced in now. Then there may not be such big fluctuations after the results are announced. What traders trade is the "expected difference". If there is no expected difference, there will be no big fluctuations. $BTC

#BTC #etf #BTC现货ETF
I forgot where I saw that ETF was announced last night
As a result, after waiting all night, the world was silent
I read the news today and it said it will be announced on the 10th.
Tomorrow after tomorrow

The drama of the ETF passing is really like watching the hot searches on Weibo
The plot keeps reversing
But the people in the currency circle are not the melon-eating people on Weibo.
Traders bet with real money
A reversal and the money is gone. Another reversal, and the money is gone again. Who can bear this?
🤣

There is support at 4w, see the red horizontal line. The descending triangle reaches near the horizontal line many times without breaking.
This horizontal line basically coincides with the daily Bollinger upper track. When you reach the upper track, there will be support.
Let's see if it falls below.

On the 4h chart, the price is running in the green descending channel. If it falls below the 4w level, then the next support is the super intensive trading area in front of around 3.8w. By the time the descending channel intersected the 3.8w level, it was Christmas Day.

What a perfect script. It’s too neat~

The greed index has dropped slightly. It's a good thing.
If everyone is calmer, it may not fall to 3.8w, and it will usher in the next rise after a month of fluctuations. This makes everyone happy. Why do you have to jump in and play with heartbeats, right?
#BTC🔥🔥 #etf #一起来跟单 #合约锦标赛 #圣诞行情 $BTC

Life has been busy for a month, and I haven't had time to pay attention to the market.

During this period, Bitcoin rose again, reaching 44,000. It feels really good to let it go and let its balance increase.

Of course, we cannot be blindly optimistic. This is self-cultivation as an old leek.

I'm thinking about closing my position.

I haven’t watched any information or news for a month. As soon as I opened various information websites, a lot of things came into view.

CZ was accused and Binance was fined. Some people say that this is the landing of regulatory boots, which is conducive to the subsequent development of the market and the issuance of ETFs.

Arthur Hayes was asked on the podcast what he thought of this cycle.

Looking back on the last bull market, after Bitcoin rose to new highs, market optimism spread. How many big Vs have vowed that this bull market is different and will not be a four-year cycle. Bitcoin has entered an institutional bull and sustained long-term bull market.

Everyone knows what happened next.

Every time someone says "this time it's different" but it's the same every time.

So, what about this bull market? Still the same?

The institutional bulls that have been talked about since the last bull market have really ushered in the possible approval of BlackRock’s spot ETF application in this bull market. Since 2013, some people have said that artificial intelligence will pose a threat to the blockchain. This year, some people have said that the new narrative may be the combination of artificial intelligence and Bitcoin. The narrative of each bull market is different and the tipping point is different. Some old stories are still being told, and new stories are also being brewed.

It can only be said that when the cycle comes, the market needs a narrative.

The process of more and more people believing in this narrative and joining in is the process of market rising.

When the market is buzzing with people and everyone is overly optimistic and believes that it will keep rising, risks are accumulating.

If you ask me, will the four-year cycle repeat itself? Will we enter an eternal bull market? I have no idea.

However, the most important thing that an old leek learns after being rubbed enough in the market is to always stay awake and in awe.

A tumultuous week.
It fell below 3.5w and suddenly pulled back last night.

This pull brings back the light.
It couldn't get over the previous high, the indicator deviated, and it went down again in 1 hour.

Not that it will plummet. However, the continuous rise was blocked.

At a high level in the morning, I closed the position I added last week.
The original warehouse is still there. The leverage is very low, so there is nothing to worry about.

Do you think it will rise sharply after closing the position?
Every time we get to a key position, we have to think about it, whether it is a draw or a draw.

Trading is the art of regret.
In order to have both peace and prosperity in this world, there must always be giving and gaining. #etf #BTC #一起来跟单 #注意资金安全

On the night of the 9th, btc and eth had different rhythms.

BTC fell rapidly when it reached 3.8w, and its holdings fell off a cliff. A big wave of liquidation is coming

The price of eth is strong. In the past period of time, eth has been relatively weak compared to btc, but it has finally caught up.

eth just hit the daily Bollinger upper track, and there was a significant correction in the next few days. Therefore, the callback will still come if it should come.

The advantage is that the callback shrinks

The upper track of the daily Bollinger is also just at the previous high point.

Whether it is the big liquidation of Bitcoin or the double resistance level of ETH, it shows that there is resistance here.

But the good thing is that in the past few days, whether it is BTC or eth, the price has held up without a deep correction.

The ideal situation is to hold the price, adjust in a choppy manner, and then start the next uptrend. #etf #BTC #ETH #一起来跟单 #合约
$BTC $ETH

There is a feeling that Bitcoin is about to break through.

From the 1h small structure point of view, in the previous shocks, the callback duration was larger than the upward spurt.
Today is a rise with volume, and adjustment is shrinking. Open interest has also been increasing.
Of course, we only look at Binance’s perpetual volume.

The big cycle is stuck on the upper Bollinger track. A posture of taking off.

Big Pie is lying sideways like this, watching Xiao Coin going crazy every day. What the hell is ORDI more than doubled?
It feels like I’m missing out on 100 million every day.
#BTC #一起来跟单 #注意资金安全

#BTC #sol #etf #ARB #sei $BTC $ETH $BNB The market seems to be stationary again. The longer the market goes sideways, the more panicked it becomes and the lower the possibility of rising.

Looking at the Bollinger Bands, the daily line is still on the upper track. The 4-hour line has gone sideways to the track line. The 1-hour line has gone sideways to the track line, and the track has begun to close.

If the next wave of rise does not start, then the best situation is that it will fluctuate within the 1-hour track.

Short-term players can sell high and buy low. If short-term players watch the 15min and 5m tracks and sell high and buy low, they should have been doing it for several days.

There is an explosion of small coins every day. If the big pie is horizontal, the small coins will have a stage to perform.

#BTC
Let’s continue to talk about the psychological traits needed to make money in the currency circle.

2. The goal is clear and specific.
There are too many ways to play in the currency circle. It’s also a place with few barriers.
When I came here, I saw opportunities everywhere, and the flowers became more and more charming.
Things with a low threshold often require a lot of effort to do well, and you need to be better than many people.
Therefore, it is not easy for most people to specialize in one field and do one thing well.

3. Willingness to learn.
The currency circle is a new thing, and new technologies, applications, and gameplay are being produced every day. Updates and iterations are too fast.
If you don’t study, you will definitely not survive one episode.
If you think that you can make money along the way, or if you listen to people calling for orders and ask about which currency can rise, I'm afraid you can only go in the opposite direction.
The money you earn through your own abilities is truly yours.
Don't people often say: The money earned by luck will be lost sooner or later by strength. This sounds joking, but it's true.

4. The courage to take risks.
Humans are inherently risk averse. This explains why many people end their floating profits prematurely and hang on to their floating losses.
Speculation is a matter of dancing with risks. If you want to wear a crown, you must bear its weight. If you want to get big profits, you must face high risks.
But that doesn’t mean it’s enough to just have a heart that dares to take risks. You must learn to manage risk and calculate how much risk you need to take. Can you bear this risk? Speculation requires not only taking risks, but also being able to calculate.

5. The ability to self-reflect.
How many people will blame others and others when they encounter setbacks and failures?
Looking for excuses from the outside is the most natural reaction for people.
But the market doesn't listen to you.
In front of the market, everyone is small and insignificant. The financial market is a place where people can understand better. Don't make excuses when encountering problems, because it will be useless if you do.
The only thing that is useful is self-reflection, constantly reflecting on your strengths and weaknesses, abilities and shortcomings, and looking for ways to improve. $BTC

Last night, the correlation between Bitcoin and the trend of US stocks was relatively strong.

The small fluctuations after 8 o'clock in the evening are earlier than those of US stocks, but the fluctuations after 3 o'clock are later than those of US stocks.

The good thing is that it broke through the previous small shock convergence triangle. The bad thing is that this time I touched the sharp peak of 3.58w in the previous wave again, but it didn't pass.

This increase is rather questionable.

Bollinger's opening in 4 hours was too big, even bigger than the big plunge in May 21. The short-term deviation is a bit large.

If you already hold multiple orders, just grab them.

If there is no order that wants to enter the market here, it is better to observe the market and enter if the volume exceeds the previous high point.
#BTC #etf #一起来跟单 #注意资金安全 #加息 $BTC

write script
Scenario 1: Go straight up through the 4h mid-track, to 2.74, and then back to 2.7, rising in shock.
Scenario 2: Oscillation between 2.66-2.7, gaining momentum
Scenario 3: Touch 2.7 and continue to fall
————
How do I think it will go? I would say, the first one. If you ask why I think it is the first type, I can only say: it feels...
#BTC #

Walking pretty strong. Thinking it was the weekend, I slowly increased my position and waited. Sure enough, a small adjustment. There is a high probability that it will need to be adjusted again.
Keep reminding yourself not to be impatient. If you want to improve your trading performance, you must be prudent. $BTC

All three major U.S. stock indexes rebounded sharply last night. On the last day of the National Day holiday, overseas markets experienced a relatively large rebound, which may reduce the pressure on us to open next Monday.
Bitcoin did not rise sharply with US stocks. Last night it hit 28,000 again, hitting the 1h Bollinger Track again. However, it fell back again, and there is still a somewhat long upper shadow line.
At the same time, the 4h Bollinger Track has supported many times.
Still bullish. When the oscillator pulls back to its low level, you can consider adding a small amount to your position. $BTC

The last step is to rush #BTC $BTC

Talk about the determination of trading mentality

Last night, btc rushed up and saw 28,000
Is this going to continue to rise? I haven’t received my 27,000 order yet, and I haven’t filled up enough positions yet.
In the past, he must have been impatient. I can't remember how many times I saw the market suddenly surge. I could calm down for half a minute at most. After watching the market for half a minute, I couldn't help but chase after it.
Last night, I held back and didn't pursue it. Because I judged it before and thought it would not rise so quickly.
Must my judgment be correct? Of course not necessarily.
But a qualified trader needs to have a little determination to stick to his own judgment. It doesn't matter if you are wrong, just develop a new strategy based on the new situation next time.
The mentality of changing from following the fluctuations of the market to gradually calming down is a process that a trader must go through.
Trading is a spiritual practice, and the journey is long and long. $BTC

The overall market pattern remains unchanged. Now we have a feeling of convergence and see if it can be supported near the mid- to long-term moving averages.
1h Bolin, after breaking through the upper track and falling back on October 2, last night was the second time it hit the upper track. It rushed very hard, but it was still beaten back.
1h mid-rail and 4h mid-rail are both at 27,000. The previous judgment remains unchanged. The strategy remains unchanged