概率交易法则

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1. The drop from 97963 may see a bottom at a smaller level, with the first target range being 93387-94261.
2. From a medium level perspective, the possible views since the green line 80524 are ranked as follows:
（1）is a horizontal adjustment for the blue line wave Y, forming wave XX. The top may be around 97963.
（2）is a zigzag adjustment for the blue line wave Y, forming wave XX. The highest rebound price will not exceed 105644.
（3）is a zigzag adjustment or new rise targeting the drop from the top 126296. The price range at the top is larger, and this possibility is not considered for now.
3. From a larger perspective, a drop below 80524 is needed to achieve relative perfection. Since 74500, there are 2 possible scenarios: super cycle 3-5, super cycle 5. The possibilities are ranked from highest to lowest as follows:

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1. The decline pattern from 97963 may be a single zigzag, and today's decline in price has once again strengthened the first possibility. The possible views since the green line 80524 are sorted as follows:
(1) is a horizontal adjustment for the blue wave Y, forming wave XX. The top is just recent.
(2) is a zigzag adjustment for the blue wave Y, forming wave XX. The rebound price will not exceed 105644.
(3) is a zigzag adjustment or new rise from the top 126296. The price range at the top is relatively large, and this possibility is not considered for now.
2. From a mid-level perspective, breaking below 80524 is necessary to achieve relative perfection.

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1. The downward pattern from 97963 looks very much like a guiding wedge, and the probability of the first possibility is gradually increasing. The possible views since the green line 80524 are ordered as follows:
(1) is for the horizontal adjustment of the blue line wave Y, forming wave XX.
(2) is for the zigzag adjustment of the blue line wave Y, forming wave XX.
(3) is for the zigzag adjustment from the top 126296 downwards or a new rise.
2. From a medium level perspective, breaking below 80524 is required to achieve relative perfection.
Since 3.74500, there are 2 possibilities: super cycle 3-5, super cycle 5. Ordered by likelihood from high to low as follows:

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1. The trend is gradually becoming clearer. The green line represents my personal view on the correction pattern since 80524, which could be a horizontal correction or a zigzag correction. Various perspectives are as follows:
(1) This is a horizontal correction targeting wave Y of the blue line, forming wave XX. The peak is just around the corner.
(2) This is a zigzag correction targeting wave Y of the blue line, forming wave XX. The rebound price will not exceed 105644.
(3) This is a zigzag correction targeting the decline from the peak at 126296. There is no price limit at the peak.
2. From a medium-term perspective, breaking below 80524 is required to achieve relative perfection.

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1. Continue seeking a peak. The green line represents my personal view and should not be used as an operational basis. (Article from January 12th, discovered today that it wasn't published successfully, so it's being reposted now.)
2. From a medium level perspective, breaking below 80524 is required to achieve relative perfection.
There are two possible scenarios for the market since 3.74500: super cycle 3-5 or super cycle 5. Considering all factors, personally, the order of likelihood from highest to lowest is as follows:
(1) It is a super cycle 3-5 (as shown in the chart). The current correction level is equivalent to the segment from 69000 to 15450. The correction endpoint is generally (but not necessarily) higher than 69000, with the favorable range between 70878 and 83956.

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1. The orange line represents a multi-toothed pattern. The decline from 94825 did not start with a motive wave, and there is currently no sign of a top, so we continue searching for the peak.
2. From a medium-term perspective, breaking below 80524 is required to achieve a relatively perfect scenario.
There are three possible scenarios for the market since 3.74500: super cycle 3-5, super cycle 5, and super cycle 3-2. Considering all factors, I personally rank them by likelihood from highest to lowest as follows:
(1) It is a super cycle 3-5 (as shown in the chart), with an adjustment level equivalent to segment 69000 to 15450. The end of this adjustment usually (but not necessarily) exceeds 69000, with a favorable range between 70878 and 83956.

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1. Price target above 92500 has been achieved, next looking for a peak, currently no reliable signs of a peak. If wave C makes a new high, it negates the orange line as a guiding wedge. Otherwise, it remains temporarily.
2. From a moderate level perspective, breaking below 80524 is necessary to achieve relative perfection.
3. The market since 74500 has three possibilities: super cycle 3-5, super cycle 5, super cycle 3-2. Considering all situations, I personally believe the order of likelihood from high to low is as follows:
(1) is a super cycle 3-5 (as shown), the adjustment level is equivalent to the segment from 69000 to 15450, and the endpoint of this adjustment will generally (but not necessarily) be above 69000, with a cheap range of 70878~83956.

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1. The small-scale platform shape verification is successful, continuing towards the target with no signs of a top for now.
2. From a medium level perspective, breaking below 80524 is necessary to achieve relative perfection.
Since 3.74500, there are 3 possible market scenarios: super cycle 3-5, super cycle 5, super cycle 3-2. Considering all situations, I personally believe the order from most to least likely is as follows:
（1）is a super cycle 3-5 (as shown in the picture), the adjustment level is equivalent to the segment from 69000 to 15450. This adjustment's endpoint will generally (but not necessarily) be higher than 69000, with a cheap range of 70878~83956.
（2）is a super cycle 5, which ended at 126200. A decline greater than 53591 dollars will follow, meaning the price will be below 72609, with a cheap range of 48245~72609.

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1. The rise starting from 84400 is a rebound, both long and short sides continue to struggle.
2. From a medium level perspective, a drop below 80524 is needed to achieve relative perfection.
3. Since 74500, there are 3 possible market scenarios: super cycle 3-5, super cycle 5, super cycle 3-2. Considering various situations, I personally believe the probabilities should be ranked from high to low as follows:
（1）is a super cycle 3-5 (as shown), the adjustment level is equivalent to the segment from 69000 to 15450, this adjustment's endpoint will generally (but not necessarily) be higher than 69000, the cheap range is 70878~83956.
（2）is a super cycle 5, which has ended at 126200, a subsequent drop greater than 53591 dollars will occur, meaning the price will be below 72609, the cheap range is 48245~72609.

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(1) The rebound from 74.74 (blue dot) is not strong enough, and there is no driving force observed. If it breaks a new high, there is a risk of peaking at any time. The upward trend that started from 64.92 tends to remain a rebound idea.
(2) From a larger perspective, there is still a possibility of breaking a new low once.

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1. The rise starting from 84400 is a rebound, encountering strong resistance near 90728 and falling sharply. The subsequent rise is not strong enough, and the outlook is concerning.
2. From a medium-level perspective, breaking below 80600 is necessary to achieve relative perfection.
3. Since 74500, there are 3 possible scenarios: super cycle 3-5, super cycle 5, super cycle 3-2. Considering various situations, I personally believe the ranking from most likely to least likely is as follows:
(1) is super cycle 3-5 (as shown), the adjustment level is equivalent to the segment from 69000 to 15450, and the endpoint of this adjustment is generally expected (but not necessarily) to be above 69000.

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1. The decline starting from 212.19 currently shows no signs of a driving force, and the momentum of the current decline is insufficient, leaning towards a bullish outlook.
2. The decline starting from 212.19 may be a large cycle wave 2 or a cycle wave 5-2, with the following requirements respectively:
（1）If it is a large cycle wave 2, the bottom of this decline should be below 158.
（2）If it is a cycle wave 5-2, the bottom of this decline should be above 158.
3. Combining 1 and 2, it is estimated that it may follow cycle wave 5-2 and be a horizontal adjustment.