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U.S. Stocks’ Three Core Sectors’ Core Stocks:
🟡 Semiconductor Sector: Marvell Technology (MRVL), Micron Technology (MU), Intel (INTC), Applied Materials (AMAT), Lam Research (LRCX)
🟡 Optical Communication Sector: Lumentum (LITE), Nokia (NOK), Coherent (COHR), Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI), Corning (GLW), Ciena (CIEN)
🟡 Storage Sector: , SanDisk (SNDK), SK hynix (SKHY), Western Digital (WDC), Micron Technology up 2.36%, Seagate Technology (STX)
🟡 Semiconductor Sector: Marvell Technology (MRVL), Micron Technology (MU), Intel (INTC), Applied Materials (AMAT), Lam Research (LRCX)
🟡 Optical Communication Sector: Lumentum (LITE), Nokia (NOK), Coherent (COHR), Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI), Corning (GLW), Ciena (CIEN)
🟡 Storage Sector: , SanDisk (SNDK), SK hynix (SKHY), Western Digital (WDC), Micron Technology up 2.36%, Seagate Technology (STX)
After experiencing a “plunge” during the Asian trading session, spot gold has gradually recouped its intraday losses in the European session, and has now once again touched the $4,400 mark.
📺 Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation in Singapore believes concerns about currency depreciation have flared up again, adding extra pressure on the U.S. dollar and prompting international spot gold to surge “dry-land spring up” from the $4,000 level. We think this area is increasingly resembling a periodical bottom.
📺 Analyst David Scutt said the current market is still likely to face resistance from the 200-day moving average. If it pulls back again below 4,367, it could make long positions hesitate.
$XAU
📺 Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation in Singapore believes concerns about currency depreciation have flared up again, adding extra pressure on the U.S. dollar and prompting international spot gold to surge “dry-land spring up” from the $4,000 level. We think this area is increasingly resembling a periodical bottom.
📺 Analyst David Scutt said the current market is still likely to face resistance from the 200-day moving average. If it pulls back again below 4,367, it could make long positions hesitate.
$XAU
欧鹏
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Gold rallies as oil prices rebound and returns to around $4,400; is the price no longer affected by geopolitical tensions? After spot gold weakened at the start of this week, it quickly regained its losses and has been gradually trending higher. It is now stabilizing above the $4,400 psychological level. Earlier, gold faced pressure mainly due to a clear strengthening of the U.S. dollar.
Over the weekend, reports said the maritime blockade in the Strait of Hormuz has been further upgraded. The U.S. military has begun guiding commercial vessels to avoid Iranian ports, further indicating that there is still a considerable distance between the U.S. and Iran before a real resolution to the current crisis can be reached.
The latest update shows that Tehran has submitted a list of conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, U.S. President Trump said the U.S. will continue to wait for additional accumulation of economic pressure on Iran. Overnight reports also indicate that Trump urged Iran to provide compensation and instructed its negotiating representatives to firmly raise this demand in any future talks with Iran.
However, as stocks strengthened, the dollar later gave back some of its gains. The U.S. employment report released last Friday came in weak, causing market expectations for the Federal Reserve to further hike rates to decline, which in turn drove a clear rise in Asian equities. While major U.S. stock indexes are still trading near record highs, upside momentum appears relatively limited, and the FX market overall lacks a clear directional trend.
With a light macroeconomic calendar on Monday, market attention has shifted to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision to be released on Tuesday, and the U.S. CPI report on Wednesday. Market consensus is that the RBA will keep interest rates unchanged, but its latest economic forecasts may still provide clues about the policy direction in the coming meetings.
As for the U.S. CPI, markets expect overall inflation year-on-year in July to be 3.4%, slightly lower than June’s 3.5%. Core CPI year-on-year is expected to be 2.5%, also below the prior 2.6%.
If the final data largely matches expectations, it could further reinforce the market’s view that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in September, thereby continuing to support gold and pushing it higher. $ETH
Over the weekend, reports said the maritime blockade in the Strait of Hormuz has been further upgraded. The U.S. military has begun guiding commercial vessels to avoid Iranian ports, further indicating that there is still a considerable distance between the U.S. and Iran before a real resolution to the current crisis can be reached.
The latest update shows that Tehran has submitted a list of conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, U.S. President Trump said the U.S. will continue to wait for additional accumulation of economic pressure on Iran. Overnight reports also indicate that Trump urged Iran to provide compensation and instructed its negotiating representatives to firmly raise this demand in any future talks with Iran.
However, as stocks strengthened, the dollar later gave back some of its gains. The U.S. employment report released last Friday came in weak, causing market expectations for the Federal Reserve to further hike rates to decline, which in turn drove a clear rise in Asian equities. While major U.S. stock indexes are still trading near record highs, upside momentum appears relatively limited, and the FX market overall lacks a clear directional trend.
With a light macroeconomic calendar on Monday, market attention has shifted to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision to be released on Tuesday, and the U.S. CPI report on Wednesday. Market consensus is that the RBA will keep interest rates unchanged, but its latest economic forecasts may still provide clues about the policy direction in the coming meetings.
As for the U.S. CPI, markets expect overall inflation year-on-year in July to be 3.4%, slightly lower than June’s 3.5%. Core CPI year-on-year is expected to be 2.5%, also below the prior 2.6%.
If the final data largely matches expectations, it could further reinforce the market’s view that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in September, thereby continuing to support gold and pushing it higher. $ETH
Crude oil $BZ $CL rises again, which is not a good thing for crypto 💔
The U.S. July CPI will be released at 20:30 Beijing time on August 12. The market is waiting for this data to provide the next direction for Treasury yields and the rotation in tech stocks. Goldman Sachs’ economics team expects that the core CPI month-over-month in July will rise 0.19%, slightly below the market consensus of 0.2%.
The U.S. July CPI will be released at 20:30 Beijing time on August 12. The market is waiting for this data to provide the next direction for Treasury yields and the rotation in tech stocks. Goldman Sachs’ economics team expects that the core CPI month-over-month in July will rise 0.19%, slightly below the market consensus of 0.2%.
Gold rallies as oil prices rebound and returns to around $4,400; is the price no longer affected by geopolitical tensions? After spot gold weakened at the start of this week, it quickly regained its losses and has been gradually trending higher. It is now stabilizing above the $4,400 psychological level. Earlier, gold faced pressure mainly due to a clear strengthening of the U.S. dollar.
Over the weekend, reports said the maritime blockade in the Strait of Hormuz has been further upgraded. The U.S. military has begun guiding commercial vessels to avoid Iranian ports, further indicating that there is still a considerable distance between the U.S. and Iran before a real resolution to the current crisis can be reached.
The latest update shows that Tehran has submitted a list of conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, U.S. President Trump said the U.S. will continue to wait for additional accumulation of economic pressure on Iran. Overnight reports also indicate that Trump urged Iran to provide compensation and instructed its negotiating representatives to firmly raise this demand in any future talks with Iran.
However, as stocks strengthened, the dollar later gave back some of its gains. The U.S. employment report released last Friday came in weak, causing market expectations for the Federal Reserve to further hike rates to decline, which in turn drove a clear rise in Asian equities. While major U.S. stock indexes are still trading near record highs, upside momentum appears relatively limited, and the FX market overall lacks a clear directional trend.
With a light macroeconomic calendar on Monday, market attention has shifted to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision to be released on Tuesday, and the U.S. CPI report on Wednesday. Market consensus is that the RBA will keep interest rates unchanged, but its latest economic forecasts may still provide clues about the policy direction in the coming meetings.
As for the U.S. CPI, markets expect overall inflation year-on-year in July to be 3.4%, slightly lower than June’s 3.5%. Core CPI year-on-year is expected to be 2.5%, also below the prior 2.6%.
If the final data largely matches expectations, it could further reinforce the market’s view that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in September, thereby continuing to support gold and pushing it higher. $ETH
Over the weekend, reports said the maritime blockade in the Strait of Hormuz has been further upgraded. The U.S. military has begun guiding commercial vessels to avoid Iranian ports, further indicating that there is still a considerable distance between the U.S. and Iran before a real resolution to the current crisis can be reached.
The latest update shows that Tehran has submitted a list of conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, U.S. President Trump said the U.S. will continue to wait for additional accumulation of economic pressure on Iran. Overnight reports also indicate that Trump urged Iran to provide compensation and instructed its negotiating representatives to firmly raise this demand in any future talks with Iran.
However, as stocks strengthened, the dollar later gave back some of its gains. The U.S. employment report released last Friday came in weak, causing market expectations for the Federal Reserve to further hike rates to decline, which in turn drove a clear rise in Asian equities. While major U.S. stock indexes are still trading near record highs, upside momentum appears relatively limited, and the FX market overall lacks a clear directional trend.
With a light macroeconomic calendar on Monday, market attention has shifted to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision to be released on Tuesday, and the U.S. CPI report on Wednesday. Market consensus is that the RBA will keep interest rates unchanged, but its latest economic forecasts may still provide clues about the policy direction in the coming meetings.
As for the U.S. CPI, markets expect overall inflation year-on-year in July to be 3.4%, slightly lower than June’s 3.5%. Core CPI year-on-year is expected to be 2.5%, also below the prior 2.6%.
If the final data largely matches expectations, it could further reinforce the market’s view that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in September, thereby continuing to support gold and pushing it higher. $ETH
The earliest is July 4th👇 We’re bullish on Microsoft—when we look one month later, it’s $513. Choose quality assets and just hold☕️
Set a take-profit at $MSFT
Set a take-profit at $MSFT
欧鹏
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$MSFT Microsoft price from weekly chart level from 2010 to now: whenever the price pulls back to the vicinity of EMA120/EMA200, it will always usher in a new round of upward move. Of course, this doesn’t mean this time will be the same. A more certain approach is to wait until the price returns above the moving averages and the bulls once again take the upper hand before entering.
On July 15, when we were bullish on Microsoft, the price was still $390.
Right now, Microsoft $MSFT has risen to $513 🚀
Right now, Microsoft $MSFT has risen to $513 🚀
欧鹏
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BullishIf Microsoft does as we modeled on July 4,
Microsoft $MSFT at 390 is your last chance to get in—I’m personally bullish 🚀🚀🚀
For details, see below 👇🏻 my analysis of Microsoft on July 4
Microsoft $MSFT at 390 is your last chance to get in—I’m personally bullish 🚀🚀🚀
For details, see below 👇🏻 my analysis of Microsoft on July 4
Partly True
Hong Kong AI application sector gains strength. Zhipu (02513.HK) rises more than 4%, with $ZHIPU and $MINIMAX up over 4%, while Tencent Literature, MiniMax, and other stocks also move up.
Recently, volatility in the AI hardware supply chain has increased. More high-elasticity areas such as storage and optical modules have begun to bear pressure from profit-taking, so some funds naturally rotate toward the “application layer.” However, the logic inside this sector is not the same across all stocks. Zhipu focuses more on models and API capabilities, while MiniMax is more oriented toward end-user AI applications and overseas users. Tencent Literature is tied to content IP and AI content creation tools, and WeRide and Pony.ai correspond to autonomous driving and robotaxi scenarios. But the biggest issue with AI application stocks is that their business models are still in the validation stage: model-calling costs, user retention, paid conversion, regulatory compliance, and the rollout speed of autonomous driving—all of these can affect valuation stability.
Recently, volatility in the AI hardware supply chain has increased. More high-elasticity areas such as storage and optical modules have begun to bear pressure from profit-taking, so some funds naturally rotate toward the “application layer.” However, the logic inside this sector is not the same across all stocks. Zhipu focuses more on models and API capabilities, while MiniMax is more oriented toward end-user AI applications and overseas users. Tencent Literature is tied to content IP and AI content creation tools, and WeRide and Pony.ai correspond to autonomous driving and robotaxi scenarios. But the biggest issue with AI application stocks is that their business models are still in the validation stage: model-calling costs, user retention, paid conversion, regulatory compliance, and the rollout speed of autonomous driving—all of these can affect valuation stability.
After a relatively calm start to the summer, sentiment in the gold market is clearly heating up. Exceptionally strong bullish momentum has pushed the gold price through the consolidation range it had been trading in for the past two months. Over the past week, gold has surged by nearly $300, with drivers coming from one disappointing U.S. labor-market report after another.
Gold logged its best week since January.
Looking back, this rally began on Tuesday, when the U.S. Department of Labor reported a month-over-month decline in June job openings, highlighting a cooling labor market. Gold then briefly tested the initial resistance level around $4,100. The following ADP data also missed expectations. On Wednesday, ADP reported that the U.S. added only 44,000 jobs in July in the private sector, below economists’ prior estimate of about 65,000. Gold prices then broke above $4,200 per ounce.
By Friday, the uptrend accelerated further. The U.S. Department of Labor reported that in July, the U.S. economy shed 23,000 jobs, while economists had expected a gain of 85,000. This marked the second instance this year of contraction in U.S. employment levels.
As cracks in the labor market gradually became more evident, the market began dialing back pricing for potential Federal Reserve rate hikes. The gold price then broke through the $4,300 per ounce mark. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market now assigns a probability of below 50% for a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed in September. Before the Friday data release, the market expected the odds of a rate hike to be close to 60%.
Adrian Day, President of Adrian Day Asset Management, said the U.S. employment report confirms that the weakness in the labor market is significantly worse than what recent headlines have suggested. Even though the unemployment rate has fallen, it’s because more people have exited the labor force. This substantially reduces the pressure for the Fed to raise rates—or at least, it adds pressure from the opposite direction. The bottom in gold has been formed.$XAUT
Gold logged its best week since January.
Looking back, this rally began on Tuesday, when the U.S. Department of Labor reported a month-over-month decline in June job openings, highlighting a cooling labor market. Gold then briefly tested the initial resistance level around $4,100. The following ADP data also missed expectations. On Wednesday, ADP reported that the U.S. added only 44,000 jobs in July in the private sector, below economists’ prior estimate of about 65,000. Gold prices then broke above $4,200 per ounce.
By Friday, the uptrend accelerated further. The U.S. Department of Labor reported that in July, the U.S. economy shed 23,000 jobs, while economists had expected a gain of 85,000. This marked the second instance this year of contraction in U.S. employment levels.
As cracks in the labor market gradually became more evident, the market began dialing back pricing for potential Federal Reserve rate hikes. The gold price then broke through the $4,300 per ounce mark. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market now assigns a probability of below 50% for a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed in September. Before the Friday data release, the market expected the odds of a rate hike to be close to 60%.
Adrian Day, President of Adrian Day Asset Management, said the U.S. employment report confirms that the weakness in the labor market is significantly worse than what recent headlines have suggested. Even though the unemployment rate has fallen, it’s because more people have exited the labor force. This substantially reduces the pressure for the Fed to raise rates—or at least, it adds pressure from the opposite direction. The bottom in gold has been formed.$XAUT
In the previous big bear market, after BTC completed a bottom wick in June 2022, it didn’t immediately reverse. Instead, it traded sideways at low levels for nearly 300 days, until 2023 when it gradually emerged from the bear market and re-entered a range-bound upward cycle.
And in this round, BTC also saw a clear bottom wick in June. So what’s really worth watching next may not be whether it can rebound right away in the short term, but whether BTC stops falling below $60,000, and then again uses around 300 days to complete base building and trend repair.
If the time structure is indeed close to the last cycle, then around the first quarter of 2027 could become a very important time window for the end of this bear market.
Of course, time can only serve as a reference. What truly confirms that a bear market has ended is that the price regains the long-term moving averages and allows the long-term trend to turn from down to up again.
History won’t simply repeat itself, but market cycles are often more regular than we think.
$BTC
And in this round, BTC also saw a clear bottom wick in June. So what’s really worth watching next may not be whether it can rebound right away in the short term, but whether BTC stops falling below $60,000, and then again uses around 300 days to complete base building and trend repair.
If the time structure is indeed close to the last cycle, then around the first quarter of 2027 could become a very important time window for the end of this bear market.
Of course, time can only serve as a reference. What truly confirms that a bear market has ended is that the price regains the long-term moving averages and allows the long-term trend to turn from down to up again.
History won’t simply repeat itself, but market cycles are often more regular than we think.
$BTC
Below is a list of key events next week:
Monday
Bank of Japan releases an excerpt of deliberation opinions from the July monetary policy meeting
Tuesday
U.S. ADP employment change for the week ended July 25
Wednesday
CoreWeave (CRWV) earnings conference call at 5:00 a.m. (UTC+8) (after the close of U.S. markets on Tuesday)
U.S. July CPI and core CPI
U.S. EIA crude oil inventories for the week ended August 7
Thursday
Cisco (CSCO) earnings conference call at 4:30 a.m. (UTC+8) (after the close of U.S. markets on Wednesday)
U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ended August 8, and U.S. July PPI
Remarks by 2026 FOMC voting members and Cleveland Fed President M. H. Barkin
Remarks by 2027 FOMC voting members and Richmond Fed President Barkin on the economic outlook
Friday
Applied Materials (AMAT) earnings conference call at 4:30 a.m. (UTC+8) (after the close of U.S. markets on Thursday)
U.S. July retail sales (monthly)
U.S. August preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, preliminary one-year inflation expectations, and June business inventories (monthly)
$CRWV $CSCO $AMAT
Monday
Bank of Japan releases an excerpt of deliberation opinions from the July monetary policy meeting
Tuesday
U.S. ADP employment change for the week ended July 25
Wednesday
CoreWeave (CRWV) earnings conference call at 5:00 a.m. (UTC+8) (after the close of U.S. markets on Tuesday)
U.S. July CPI and core CPI
U.S. EIA crude oil inventories for the week ended August 7
Thursday
Cisco (CSCO) earnings conference call at 4:30 a.m. (UTC+8) (after the close of U.S. markets on Wednesday)
U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ended August 8, and U.S. July PPI
Remarks by 2026 FOMC voting members and Cleveland Fed President M. H. Barkin
Remarks by 2027 FOMC voting members and Richmond Fed President Barkin on the economic outlook
Friday
Applied Materials (AMAT) earnings conference call at 4:30 a.m. (UTC+8) (after the close of U.S. markets on Thursday)
U.S. July retail sales (monthly)
U.S. August preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, preliminary one-year inflation expectations, and June business inventories (monthly)
$CRWV $CSCO $AMAT
“A “bad” and “how bad” are two different things. Nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, but government employment dragged it down—accounting for over 70%‼️ In July, actual U.S. nonfarm employment decreased by 23,000, far worse than the market expectation of an increase of about 85,000. However, after further breakdown, it turns out that this weakness in employment has not broadly spread to the private sector. Government employment fell by 53,000 in the month, with local governments down by 57,000—one of the biggest drags this month. Leisure and hospitality employment fell by 40,000 as well, showing a clear downturn, possibly reflecting temporary job exits after large events ended. By contrast, most core private sectors still maintained positive growth, with professional and business services, education and healthcare, and construction all continuing to add jobs.
Therefore, this nonfarm report looks more like concentrated drag from the public sector and certain service industries on the aggregate total, rather than a widespread layoff in the corporate sector. Meanwhile, the July unemployment rate, unrounded, was 4.09%, slightly better than market expectations—also indicating that the labor market is still in a state of “hiring cooling off, but layoffs have not yet clearly spread.”
In addition, May and June nonfarm data were both revised down consecutively, continuing the recent pattern of employment data revisions tending to be larger than expected. Overall, the market’s immediate interpretation of “-23k” as a broad-based employment deterioration may be a bit aggressive. In the short term, the data still supports expectations for further Fed rate hikes, benefiting U.S. Treasuries and gold. But in the medium term, what truly needs to be watched is whether the weakness in employment further spreads from government and specific service industries into core private sectors such as manufacturing, professional services, and construction. $
Therefore, this nonfarm report looks more like concentrated drag from the public sector and certain service industries on the aggregate total, rather than a widespread layoff in the corporate sector. Meanwhile, the July unemployment rate, unrounded, was 4.09%, slightly better than market expectations—also indicating that the labor market is still in a state of “hiring cooling off, but layoffs have not yet clearly spread.”
In addition, May and June nonfarm data were both revised down consecutively, continuing the recent pattern of employment data revisions tending to be larger than expected. Overall, the market’s immediate interpretation of “-23k” as a broad-based employment deterioration may be a bit aggressive. In the short term, the data still supports expectations for further Fed rate hikes, benefiting U.S. Treasuries and gold. But in the medium term, what truly needs to be watched is whether the weakness in employment further spreads from government and specific service industries into core private sectors such as manufacturing, professional services, and construction. $
After entering August, the “catalysts” in the tech sector are concentrated: AI model launches, chip conferences, big tech earnings reports, and hardware new products will take the stage one after another. This may affect the performance of the technology sector—please stay alert.
$NVDA $GOOGL $BTC
$NVDA $GOOGL $BTC
SK Hynix shares plunge 10% $SKHY SK Hynix’s stock price has crashed, with the apparent trigger being a sentiment contagion sparked by guidance from a U.S. storage giant that triggered fears of “disaster.” But underneath lies the market’s deep concern about an inflection point in the memory cycle. SK Hynix chose to dilute its equity through a U.S. IPO at the industry’s peak boom—something some investors see as a signal of “selling at high levels.” Combined with concerns about supply ramp-up as Chinese makers such as CXMT increase production, the market is re-pricing the sustainability of memory industry momentum. The core contradiction is the stage mismatch between aggressive investment in the AI upstream and the downstream commercialization and monetization.
The synchronized weakening in Samsung Electronics ($SAMSUNG ) and SK Hynix ($SKHY ) reflects that market disagreement over the persistence of storage-sector business momentum is still intensifying. Goldman Sachs’ bullish assessment represents the long-term industrial logic, but in the short term, the stock price remains suppressed by sentiment-driven transmission from the U.S. stock “storage blowup.” The key points to watch next are whether major memory makers can provide positive guidance on capacity and pricing, and whether demand for AI storage such as HBM can continue to exceed expectations. These factors will determine whether the two storage leaders can stabilize and drive an index rebound.
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