MurtiTheTrader
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MurtiTheTrader
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US stocks, options flow and crypto. Data-driven daily market notes, no FOMO. Risk first, always. Not financial advice.
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FOMO check: Everyone's saying "Democrats won, solar goes to the moon, buy now." First Solar hit +15.6% intraday, now it's +6.4% and more than half the gain is gone.
→ In January 2021, when the Senate flipped to the Democrats, the solar basket rallied 34 more days, only +5.8%, and that was the top
→ One year later it was at −38%, and today it's still −62% from that peak
→ Today's biggest call trade was ~$3.7M, on the sell (bid) side
I think political news gets priced in a day, but profit margins take years. Worst case: if First Solar drops back below yesterday's $186, the election rally stays a one-day thing; it's on my radar.
Watching: $BTC $SOL
#Stocks #Investing
FOMO check: Everyone's saying "Democrats won, solar goes to the moon, buy now." First Solar hit +15.6% intraday, now it's +6.4% and more than half the gain is gone.
→ In January 2021, when the Senate flipped to the Democrats, the solar basket rallied 34 more days, only +5.8%, and that was the top
→ One year later it was at −38%, and today it's still −62% from that peak
→ Today's biggest call trade was ~$3.7M, on the sell (bid) side
I think political news gets priced in a day, but profit margins take years. Worst case: if First Solar drops back below yesterday's $186, the election rally stays a one-day thing; it's on my radar.
Watching: $BTC $SOL
#Stocks #Investing
→ In January 2021, when the Senate flipped to the Democrats, the solar basket rallied 34 more days, only +5.8%, and that was the top
→ One year later it was at −38%, and today it's still −62% from that peak
→ Today's biggest call trade was ~$3.7M, on the sell (bid) side
I think political news gets priced in a day, but profit margins take years. Worst case: if First Solar drops back below yesterday's $186, the election rally stays a one-day thing; it's on my radar.
Watching: $BTC $SOL
#Stocks #Investing
97
Partly True
What nobody's watching: per Bloomberg data, the US has 7.5 million job openings, the same as 2019 levels, but the hiring rate is at 3.4%, a 2013 level.
→ In 2019, with a similar number of openings, the hiring rate was ~3.9%
→ Openings are 38% below the March 2022 peak (12.2M)
→ Layoffs rose from 1.9% to 2.1% in a single month
My take: companies are posting jobs but not opening the door. Worst case: if openings drop below 7 million, the "not hiring, but not firing" phase turns into layoffs. That's what I'm watching.
#Economy #Fed
What nobody's watching: per Bloomberg data, the US has 7.5 million job openings, the same as 2019 levels, but the hiring rate is at 3.4%, a 2013 level.
→ In 2019, with a similar number of openings, the hiring rate was ~3.9%
→ Openings are 38% below the March 2022 peak (12.2M)
→ Layoffs rose from 1.9% to 2.1% in a single month
My take: companies are posting jobs but not opening the door. Worst case: if openings drop below 7 million, the "not hiring, but not firing" phase turns into layoffs. That's what I'm watching.
#Economy #Fed
→ In 2019, with a similar number of openings, the hiring rate was ~3.9%
→ Openings are 38% below the March 2022 peak (12.2M)
→ Layoffs rose from 1.9% to 2.1% in a single month
My take: companies are posting jobs but not opening the door. Worst case: if openings drop below 7 million, the "not hiring, but not firing" phase turns into layoffs. That's what I'm watching.
#Economy #Fed
908
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BITCOIN UPDATE I’M STILL BEARISH, AND HERE’S WHY! 🚨⚠️
As you all witnessed, BTC bounced back from the $75,700 area and touched $81K. First, the market trapped long traders, and then it trapped short traders.
I’m still bearish. First of all, as everyone knows, Democrats won today’s US midterm elections, and in my view, this outcome is bearish for the market.
The market can remain volatile in the short term and trap as many traders as it wants, but that doesn’t change the overall market outlook.
There are several important upcoming events, including US Non Farm Payrolls (November 6), US CPI Inflation (November 10), US PPI (November 13), US Retail Sales (November 17), FOMC Meeting Minutes (November 18), US PCE Inflation (November 25), Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, the US Dollar Index (DXY), Treasury Yields, Nasdaq performance, Bitcoin ETF flows, and ongoing( Iran ) Israel geopolitical developments. All of these could have a significant impact on Bitcoin and the overall crypto market.
But don’t get too carried away by Bitcoin’s recent movement. Technically speaking, there hasn’t been any major bullish move yet. Yesterday, BTC was trading between $80K and $82K, and even today, it’s still around the same range.
If you want to turn bullish, that’s entirely your choice.
In my previous post, I clearly explained that BTC had technical support in the $75K / $76K zone, and the price bounced from that support and made its way back towards $80K. But this wasn’t something I had failed to mention before. In fact, I repeatedly mentioned in my posts that BTC could move towards $80K, $81K, or even $82K.
Despite that, I’m still bearish.
And I don’t have just one reason to support my bearish outlook. I have several reasons, which I’ve already explained in my previous posts.
For now, I’ll continue to wait for BTC to drop below $74K, which I believe could happen very soon. In my view, such a correction is also necessary for the market.
Anyone looking for crypto guidance just let me know.
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