Murphy
17年老韭菜；研究链上数据和宏观情绪相结合，构建自己的交易思维。保持谨慎乐观 | X: @Murphychen888
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The average relative unrealized loss of short-term holders (STH-RUL) has exceeded 5 standard deviations (purple line), which is a hallmark signal of extreme panic!
This is the first occurrence in this cycle, but it is the 11th time in the past 4 cycles, meaning it appears on average 3 times per cycle.
It seems like 'third time's the charm'; but logically speaking, any establishment of a bear bottom often occurs after bulls have completely surrendered hope, and the market unexpectedly welcomes new hope — if it doesn't work once, then try again.
Now, BTC has pulled back 50% from its peak, and it may not need to drop another 50% to trigger the next STH-RUL spike, but one thing is certain: this should not be the only occurrence before the bear bottom is established.
This is also why I believe that even though BTC is relatively close to the bear bottom in 'space', it is still clearly not enough in 'time'.
This is the first occurrence in this cycle, but it is the 11th time in the past 4 cycles, meaning it appears on average 3 times per cycle.
It seems like 'third time's the charm'; but logically speaking, any establishment of a bear bottom often occurs after bulls have completely surrendered hope, and the market unexpectedly welcomes new hope — if it doesn't work once, then try again.
Now, BTC has pulled back 50% from its peak, and it may not need to drop another 50% to trigger the next STH-RUL spike, but one thing is certain: this should not be the only occurrence before the bear bottom is established.
This is also why I believe that even though BTC is relatively close to the bear bottom in 'space', it is still clearly not enough in 'time'.
Sure enough, the allure of BTC at $60,000-$70,000 has begun to show for some large funds.
On-chain data shows that the whale group holding 10,000-100,000 BTC suddenly increased their holdings significantly when the price dropped to $76,000. Between February 1 and February 5, their holdings increased by 57,865 BTC, a total that is already far above the low point of October 25.
So, it's not that there is no demand in the market, but rather that they feel it's not cheap enough. Once the price offers good value, funds will act immediately. You might still be waiting for BTC at $30,000, but the keen-eyed whales may not give you that opportunity!
On-chain data shows that the whale group holding 10,000-100,000 BTC suddenly increased their holdings significantly when the price dropped to $76,000. Between February 1 and February 5, their holdings increased by 57,865 BTC, a total that is already far above the low point of October 25.
So, it's not that there is no demand in the market, but rather that they feel it's not cheap enough. Once the price offers good value, funds will act immediately. You might still be waiting for BTC at $30,000, but the keen-eyed whales may not give you that opportunity!
It seems that long-term holders are about to give in.....
🚩LTH-RPRL-7d EMA (Realized Profit and Loss Ratio) equals 1; globally, this indicates that LTH as a whole is no longer profitable;
🚩LTH-SOPR-7d EMA (Spent Output Profit Ratio) also equals 1; on a transaction basis, this indicates that LTH is on the verge of structural capitulation.
In the exchanges, "long-term and losing" chips are flooding in, all of this foreshadows that the "last straw that breaks the camel's back" is about to come ......
Once long-term holders begin to completely collapse, it is basically the last "shudder" of every bear market, and also the darkest moment before dawn.
Hang in there, let's be family together;
In two years, you will thank your resolute self now!
🚩LTH-RPRL-7d EMA (Realized Profit and Loss Ratio) equals 1; globally, this indicates that LTH as a whole is no longer profitable;
🚩LTH-SOPR-7d EMA (Spent Output Profit Ratio) also equals 1; on a transaction basis, this indicates that LTH is on the verge of structural capitulation.
In the exchanges, "long-term and losing" chips are flooding in, all of this foreshadows that the "last straw that breaks the camel's back" is about to come ......
Once long-term holders begin to completely collapse, it is basically the last "shudder" of every bear market, and also the darkest moment before dawn.
Hang in there, let's be family together;
In two years, you will thank your resolute self now!
Murphy
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The sensitivity of long-term holders to price continues to rise! If we were to carve the boat, the times when the price reached the same heights in the past three cycles were:
👉 2014.9.18, 2018.6.23, 2022.5.7, 2026.2.4; around these time nodes, some events pushed BTC into a deep bear phase:
👉 September 18, 2014: The aftershocks of the Mt. Gox collapse continued to ferment, and after September, the Chinese government stated it would crack down on BTC and cryptocurrencies;
👉 June 23, 2018: China completely banned cryptocurrency exchanges and ICOs; South Korea's leading exchange Bithumb was hacked;
👉 May 7, 2022: The Luna ecosystem collapsed, and FTX went bankrupt;
As the saying goes, "The top is a process, the bottom is an event" — perhaps the position we are in now is just one "black swan" away from the bottom.
The last shiver is likely to make LTHs emotionally collapse under high sensitivity, which is likely the end of this downward trend!
What will happen in 2026?.....
(The good news is: from the perspective of carving the boat, even if you buy in now and hold for the next round, there is a 99% chance you won't lose money.)
👉 2014.9.18, 2018.6.23, 2022.5.7, 2026.2.4; around these time nodes, some events pushed BTC into a deep bear phase:
👉 September 18, 2014: The aftershocks of the Mt. Gox collapse continued to ferment, and after September, the Chinese government stated it would crack down on BTC and cryptocurrencies;
👉 June 23, 2018: China completely banned cryptocurrency exchanges and ICOs; South Korea's leading exchange Bithumb was hacked;
👉 May 7, 2022: The Luna ecosystem collapsed, and FTX went bankrupt;
As the saying goes, "The top is a process, the bottom is an event" — perhaps the position we are in now is just one "black swan" away from the bottom.
The last shiver is likely to make LTHs emotionally collapse under high sensitivity, which is likely the end of this downward trend!
What will happen in 2026?.....
(The good news is: from the perspective of carving the boat, even if you buy in now and hold for the next round, there is a 99% chance you won't lose money.)
The sensitivity of long-term holders to price continues to rise! If we were to carve the boat, the times when the price reached the same heights in the past three cycles were:
👉 2014.9.18, 2018.6.23, 2022.5.7, 2026.2.4; around these time nodes, some events pushed BTC into a deep bear phase:
👉 September 18, 2014: The aftershocks of the Mt. Gox collapse continued to ferment, and after September, the Chinese government stated it would crack down on BTC and cryptocurrencies;
👉 June 23, 2018: China completely banned cryptocurrency exchanges and ICOs; South Korea's leading exchange Bithumb was hacked;
👉 May 7, 2022: The Luna ecosystem collapsed, and FTX went bankrupt;
As the saying goes, "The top is a process, the bottom is an event" — perhaps the position we are in now is just one "black swan" away from the bottom.
The last shiver is likely to make LTHs emotionally collapse under high sensitivity, which is likely the end of this downward trend!
What will happen in 2026?.....
(The good news is: from the perspective of carving the boat, even if you buy in now and hold for the next round, there is a 99% chance you won't lose money.)
👉 2014.9.18, 2018.6.23, 2022.5.7, 2026.2.4; around these time nodes, some events pushed BTC into a deep bear phase:
👉 September 18, 2014: The aftershocks of the Mt. Gox collapse continued to ferment, and after September, the Chinese government stated it would crack down on BTC and cryptocurrencies;
👉 June 23, 2018: China completely banned cryptocurrency exchanges and ICOs; South Korea's leading exchange Bithumb was hacked;
👉 May 7, 2022: The Luna ecosystem collapsed, and FTX went bankrupt;
As the saying goes, "The top is a process, the bottom is an event" — perhaps the position we are in now is just one "black swan" away from the bottom.
The last shiver is likely to make LTHs emotionally collapse under high sensitivity, which is likely the end of this downward trend!
What will happen in 2026?.....
(The good news is: from the perspective of carving the boat, even if you buy in now and hold for the next round, there is a 99% chance you won't lose money.)
Slowly declining, but not collapsing - A look at chip reconstruction under panic sentiment from URPD
On February 4th, BTC has fallen from the high of $97,000 on January 15th to $73,000; the speed is fast, and the magnitude is deep, instantly extinguishing the optimistic sentiment that originally thought there would be resistance at 80k. To say there is no panic would be a lie. Therefore, it is necessary to review what changes have occurred in BTC's chip structure during this period and what important information is hidden behind it.
For ease of understanding, I have compiled the complete URPD data into a table, using each $10,000 interval as a section, allowing for a clear observation of the trajectory of chip movement to assess current market sentiment and behavior.
For ease of understanding, I have compiled the complete URPD data into a table, using each $10,000 interval as a section, allowing for a clear observation of the trajectory of chip movement to assess current market sentiment and behavior.
Glassnode uses the cumsum formula to calculate those moments when ETF has net inflows, corresponding to the $BTC price weighted average, which characterizes a very "behavioral" institutional cost anchor.
Currently, BlackRock's average cost is: $83,696; Fidelity's average cost is: $73,752; now BTC has fallen below BlackRock's average cost, launching a psychological impact on Fidelity investors.
No wonder during the past November and December, BlackRock investors were the main bearish players, and by January, Fidelity became the main seller.
If BlackRock mainly consists of institutional investors, while Fidelity has more ordinary retail investors, plus MSTR's current average cost is $76,040......
Now it's good, blessings can be enjoyed differently, but hardships must be shared! Let's all be family together!
Currently, BlackRock's average cost is: $83,696; Fidelity's average cost is: $73,752; now BTC has fallen below BlackRock's average cost, launching a psychological impact on Fidelity investors.
No wonder during the past November and December, BlackRock investors were the main bearish players, and by January, Fidelity became the main seller.
If BlackRock mainly consists of institutional investors, while Fidelity has more ordinary retail investors, plus MSTR's current average cost is $76,040......
Now it's good, blessings can be enjoyed differently, but hardships must be shared! Let's all be family together!
Not Binance's fault, Binance shouldn't bear it
Recently, discussions regarding Binance have flooded the Twitter timeline. In my impression, it seems that during every cycle's bull-bear transition stage, centralized exchanges become the protagonists of the relevant events. For example, Mt.Gox in 2014, FTX in 2022...
Exchanges are the carriers of on-site liquidity, with extremely high weight; once problems arise, their impact on the market is devastating. History will judge the rights and wrongs, but at this moment, I do not wish to see any exchange face issues, just as I did not want to see FTX collapse back then.
There is a saying in the market: 'Binance sold 1 billion dollars worth of Bitcoin', and I have also seen CZ respond that this is a trading behavior of Binance users. So, is the current decline of BTC really 'Binance' dumping? From the overall data, I don't think so.
Exchanges are the carriers of on-site liquidity, with extremely high weight; once problems arise, their impact on the market is devastating. History will judge the rights and wrongs, but at this moment, I do not wish to see any exchange face issues, just as I did not want to see FTX collapse back then.
There is a saying in the market: 'Binance sold 1 billion dollars worth of Bitcoin', and I have also seen CZ respond that this is a trading behavior of Binance users. So, is the current decline of BTC really 'Binance' dumping? From the overall data, I don't think so.
BRS=100 ！This is a signal of short-term panic risk release.
It means that BTC has the possibility of rebounding after a significant drop within the price range of 75,000-78,000. At the same time, this is exactly the middle of the "double anchor structure" on the URPD, which historically has shown a support effect.
It is important to note that this indicator does not have a 100% win rate; there have been cases of failure during the bear market phase of 2022 (see Figure 2).
Please make appropriate trading decisions based on your risk tolerance, position control, and financial planning!
It means that BTC has the possibility of rebounding after a significant drop within the price range of 75,000-78,000. At the same time, this is exactly the middle of the "double anchor structure" on the URPD, which historically has shown a support effect.
It is important to note that this indicator does not have a 100% win rate; there have been cases of failure during the bear market phase of 2022 (see Figure 2).
Please make appropriate trading decisions based on your risk tolerance, position control, and financial planning!
Murphy
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Rebound Peak or Bull Market Start???
At the end of 25, when I renewed my contract with the Glassnode team, they acknowledged my contributions to the Chinese community over the past year, especially granting me access to the 'proprietary signals' which were originally only available to institutional clients. To be honest, the content here is completely different from what I've seen in the past (too professional), so much so that after all this time, I still haven't fully understood it.
However, there is one indicator that I have observed to be quite effective for capturing the peak range of rebounds, and I want to share it with my friends! — Bitcoin Risk Signal (BRS)
However, there is one indicator that I have observed to be quite effective for capturing the peak range of rebounds, and I want to share it with my friends! — Bitcoin Risk Signal (BRS)
The overall behavior of whales is changing, and demand continues to decline
The behavior trends of whale groups have shifted from early accumulation and hesitation to now stopping and even turning to distribution, indicating that the main demand side of the market is visibly withdrawing (Figure 1).
When whales begin to accumulate chips, it may not immediately reflect in prices, but it genuinely absorbs the excess supply and can stabilize and boost market sentiment. However, their current shift may have an even more profound impact on the market.
Similarly, we can see a similar situation through the AD-CDD indicator. On January 25, when this data was updated, the AD-CDD was 0.2 (see citation), and it has now dropped to 0.13 (Figure 2).
When whales begin to accumulate chips, it may not immediately reflect in prices, but it genuinely absorbs the excess supply and can stabilize and boost market sentiment. However, their current shift may have an even more profound impact on the market.
Similarly, we can see a similar situation through the AD-CDD indicator. On January 25, when this data was updated, the AD-CDD was 0.2 (see citation), and it has now dropped to 0.13 (Figure 2).
The gap filling has begun!
Finally, we have arrived at this day, faster than expected...
You may not believe me, but you cannot ignore the emotions and behaviors that objectively exist behind the data.
I know that at this moment, I should not say much more;
I hope you have already made plans in advance and I hope my tweets can be of help to you!
Finally, we have arrived at this day, faster than expected...
You may not believe me, but you cannot ignore the emotions and behaviors that objectively exist behind the data.
I know that at this moment, I should not say much more;
I hope you have already made plans in advance and I hope my tweets can be of help to you!
Murphy
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BTC falls with the market but does not rise, reflecting low sentiment and a lack of confidence
Pancakes, U.S. stocks, and gold suddenly dropped sharply at the same time, which is quite strange; the possible reasons currently include claims of U.S.-Iran geopolitical conflicts, speculation about yen carry trades being unwound, and potential escalation in the U.S.-Canada trade war... These are all just possible 'bearish expectations,' but one thing is certain — that is the 'behavior' exhibited.
BTC fell back down before even reaching 98,000. We have analyzed on-chain investor behavior, where 3-6 month holders chose to exit to preserve capital or minimize losses, leading to an outflow of funds from the market, and the sensitivity of long-term holders increasing, etc. This really illustrates the issue — an unwillingness to take risks and a lack of confidence in the continuation of the market trend is a typical characteristic of low sentiment.
BTC fell back down before even reaching 98,000. We have analyzed on-chain investor behavior, where 3-6 month holders chose to exit to preserve capital or minimize losses, leading to an outflow of funds from the market, and the sensitivity of long-term holders increasing, etc. This really illustrates the issue — an unwillingness to take risks and a lack of confidence in the continuation of the market trend is a typical characteristic of low sentiment.
Behavioral Implications of STH-RP (Teaching Edition) — From Holding Costs to On-Chain Interpretation of Bull-Bear Switch
STH-RP (STH Realized Price) calculates the price at which the last on-chain movement of addresses holding coins for less than 155 days occurred. In plain terms: where is the 'average cost' for those who bought BTC in the past 155 days — it represents the overall cost center for short-term holders.
Many friends equate it to SMA120 in candlestick technical theory, but they are fundamentally different. STH-RP is the 'human' cost, while SMA120 is the average of 'prices'; one reflects behavioral structure, and the other is mathematical smoothing.
SMA120 changes almost in tandem with price fluctuations, while STH-RP depends on the positions of the holding group during the last and current turnover. Theoretically, if high-priced chips remain still during a BTC drop, then STH-RP will not decrease with the price; conversely, the same applies.
Many friends equate it to SMA120 in candlestick technical theory, but they are fundamentally different. STH-RP is the 'human' cost, while SMA120 is the average of 'prices'; one reflects behavioral structure, and the other is mathematical smoothing.
SMA120 changes almost in tandem with price fluctuations, while STH-RP depends on the positions of the holding group during the last and current turnover. Theoretically, if high-priced chips remain still during a BTC drop, then STH-RP will not decrease with the price; conversely, the same applies.
Sure enough! If nothing unexpected happens, the unexpected will appear......
Starting from December 28, the investor confidence index has been slowly approaching the zero axis. Originally, we estimated that under the premise of maintaining the average rising speed, we would be able to return above the zero axis after 55 days.
However! After January 17, the index has once again gradually moved away from the zero axis. This means that our previous estimate of 55 days will need to be extended until we return to an upward trend, at which point we can reassess.
Alright, let's wait slowly...... The future will surely be bright, though the journey may be bumpy 😂
Starting from December 28, the investor confidence index has been slowly approaching the zero axis. Originally, we estimated that under the premise of maintaining the average rising speed, we would be able to return above the zero axis after 55 days.
However! After January 17, the index has once again gradually moved away from the zero axis. This means that our previous estimate of 55 days will need to be extended until we return to an upward trend, at which point we can reassess.
Alright, let's wait slowly...... The future will surely be bright, though the journey may be bumpy 😂
There are signs of capital fleeing the market
From a funding perspective, the net position of the total supply of mainstream stablecoins has shifted from positive to negative over 30 days. Although the issuance of stablecoins is not entirely used in the cryptocurrency market, the demand and application of stablecoins from some marginal gray industries are unlikely to be significantly affected by market sentiment. Therefore, the continuously decreasing portion is likely to be the real purchasing power that originally remained in the cryptocurrency market.
At the same time, the net position of mainstream stablecoins held in the exchange has shifted from positive to negative (30 days). This can also be seen from the fact that the exchange rate of USDC/USDT on Binance has consistently remained above 1 (indicating a sustained high demand for USDC), which suggests some signs of capital fleeing the market.
At the same time, the net position of mainstream stablecoins held in the exchange has shifted from positive to negative (30 days). This can also be seen from the fact that the exchange rate of USDC/USDT on Binance has consistently remained above 1 (indicating a sustained high demand for USDC), which suggests some signs of capital fleeing the market.
Understanding the cycle's repetition through the change of sentiment
From the history of BTC, each cycle of investor sentiment goes through 4 stages:
1. Optimistic area (dark purple / dark color): Large entities are significantly increasing their holdings, driving the price up;
2. Profit area (yellow / orange): As the price rises rapidly, early profit-taking chips begin to reduce their holdings;
3. Hesitation area (dark purple / dark color): The price retracts from a high point, and some investors choose to increase their holdings to average down their costs;
4. Disappointment area (yellow / orange): Investors lose confidence in the future market, and chips begin to loosen.
As the price drops to a certain extent, after the bottom consensus is reconstructed, investor sentiment will re-enter stage 1, and thus it repeats in cycles... Over time, it forms an endogenous rule of market sentiment change (indicator explanation at the end).
1. Optimistic area (dark purple / dark color): Large entities are significantly increasing their holdings, driving the price up;
2. Profit area (yellow / orange): As the price rises rapidly, early profit-taking chips begin to reduce their holdings;
3. Hesitation area (dark purple / dark color): The price retracts from a high point, and some investors choose to increase their holdings to average down their costs;
4. Disappointment area (yellow / orange): Investors lose confidence in the future market, and chips begin to loosen.
As the price drops to a certain extent, after the bottom consensus is reconstructed, investor sentiment will re-enter stage 1, and thus it repeats in cycles... Over time, it forms an endogenous rule of market sentiment change (indicator explanation at the end).
Those who grasp the essentials will be consistent!
For $BTC , I am long-term optimistic, but optimism does not mean blind faith. Taking a comprehensive view, staying rational and respecting objectivity is also my consistent principle. Whether the current market truly has the potential basis for a bull market does not change with my subjectivity, but is expressed by the real sentiment and confidence of all market participants through their actions...
So what is the true sentiment of the current market?
Let's carefully examine the following three sets of data together:
👉 2026.1.14 —— BTC price rebounded to $97,900;
Long-term holders (LTH) transferred 3,720 coins to exchanges.
So what is the true sentiment of the current market?
Let's carefully examine the following three sets of data together:
👉 2026.1.14 —— BTC price rebounded to $97,900;
Long-term holders (LTH) transferred 3,720 coins to exchanges.
After reading the "Binance Research 2025 Review", I am more convinced of one thing: the biggest misjudgment risk in 2026 is not being bearish or bullish, but using a "typical bull/bear" template to understand it.
First, let's look at some key data:
In 2025, the total market cap of cryptocurrencies briefly surpassed $40 trillion, with $BTC maintaining a market share of 58–60% for an extended period. The net inflow of BTC spot ETFs was $21.3 billion, and corporate holdings exceeded 1.1 million BTC. These are all signals of structural strengthening.
On the other hand, the number of active addresses on the BTC chain dropped by 16% year-on-year, and transaction numbers and fees did not follow the price expansion; most altcoins continued to underperform, and capital did not overflow. What does this indicate? - $BTC is transitioning from a "trading network" to a "macro financial asset"; ETFs, treasury companies, and potential future sovereign strategic reserves are replacing retail investors and on-chain speculation, becoming the main pricing force.
This also explains why everyone has been waiting for the "certain season" that never arrives? Because this round is not an environment of "indiscriminate liquidity diffusion", but rather an atypical cycle characterized by highly concentrated capital and stratified risk appetite. Structurally, $BTC , stablecoins, RWAs, and a few agreements that can genuinely convert to cash flow are absorbing incremental funds, while a large number of assets that "only have narratives and no income" are being marginalized.
This is also why I believe 2026 is more likely to be a transition between bull and bear markets and a reason for the "atypical bear market structure". The "three policy engines" (fiscal stimulus + monetary easing + deregulation) that Binance reports repeatedly emphasize indeed provide upward space for risk assets, but this liquidity is not "broad-based"; instead, it resembles an environment that rewards certainty and punishes ambiguity.
This differentiation is already happening: the market cap of stablecoins has risen to $305B, with a daily settlement volume of $3.5T, nearly twice that of Visa; RWA TVL reached $17 billion, surpassing DEX for the first time; top DeFi annual protocol revenue was $16.2 billion, exceeding the combined annual revenue of NASDAQ and CME.
All of this indicates that funds are moving towards assets that are "quantifiable, compliant, and sustainable".
Therefore, 2026 may not be a full bull market, but it is also not necessarily a traditional bear market; it is more like a stage of clearing by old OGs + structural reshaping. What truly matters is to see which assets are being structurally increased and which are just prices being desperately supported.
This is not a cycle of emotions, but a cycle of funds!
First, let's look at some key data:
In 2025, the total market cap of cryptocurrencies briefly surpassed $40 trillion, with $BTC maintaining a market share of 58–60% for an extended period. The net inflow of BTC spot ETFs was $21.3 billion, and corporate holdings exceeded 1.1 million BTC. These are all signals of structural strengthening.
On the other hand, the number of active addresses on the BTC chain dropped by 16% year-on-year, and transaction numbers and fees did not follow the price expansion; most altcoins continued to underperform, and capital did not overflow. What does this indicate? - $BTC is transitioning from a "trading network" to a "macro financial asset"; ETFs, treasury companies, and potential future sovereign strategic reserves are replacing retail investors and on-chain speculation, becoming the main pricing force.
This also explains why everyone has been waiting for the "certain season" that never arrives? Because this round is not an environment of "indiscriminate liquidity diffusion", but rather an atypical cycle characterized by highly concentrated capital and stratified risk appetite. Structurally, $BTC , stablecoins, RWAs, and a few agreements that can genuinely convert to cash flow are absorbing incremental funds, while a large number of assets that "only have narratives and no income" are being marginalized.
This is also why I believe 2026 is more likely to be a transition between bull and bear markets and a reason for the "atypical bear market structure". The "three policy engines" (fiscal stimulus + monetary easing + deregulation) that Binance reports repeatedly emphasize indeed provide upward space for risk assets, but this liquidity is not "broad-based"; instead, it resembles an environment that rewards certainty and punishes ambiguity.
This differentiation is already happening: the market cap of stablecoins has risen to $305B, with a daily settlement volume of $3.5T, nearly twice that of Visa; RWA TVL reached $17 billion, surpassing DEX for the first time; top DeFi annual protocol revenue was $16.2 billion, exceeding the combined annual revenue of NASDAQ and CME.
All of this indicates that funds are moving towards assets that are "quantifiable, compliant, and sustainable".
Therefore, 2026 may not be a full bull market, but it is also not necessarily a traditional bear market; it is more like a stage of clearing by old OGs + structural reshaping. What truly matters is to see which assets are being structurally increased and which are just prices being desperately supported.
This is not a cycle of emotions, but a cycle of funds!
币安Binance华语
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📝2025 Blockchain Development Overview: Binance Annual Highlights
Documenting our key advancements over the past year in regulation, liquidity, Web3 exploration, institutional adoption, user protection, and everyday crypto applications.
2025 Highlights Overview:
🔹Binance product trading volume reached $34 trillion
🔹Alpha 2.0 trading volume exceeded $1 trillion, attracting 17 million users
🔹Successfully prevented potential fraud losses of $6.69 billion
🔹Supported over 20 million merchants via Binance Pay
👉阅读完整报告
Documenting our key advancements over the past year in regulation, liquidity, Web3 exploration, institutional adoption, user protection, and everyday crypto applications.
2025 Highlights Overview:
🔹Binance product trading volume reached $34 trillion
🔹Alpha 2.0 trading volume exceeded $1 trillion, attracting 17 million users
🔹Successfully prevented potential fraud losses of $6.69 billion
🔹Supported over 20 million merchants via Binance Pay
👉阅读完整报告
Rebound Peak or Bull Market Start???
At the end of 25, when I renewed my contract with the Glassnode team, they acknowledged my contributions to the Chinese community over the past year, especially granting me access to the 'proprietary signals' which were originally only available to institutional clients. To be honest, the content here is completely different from what I've seen in the past (too professional), so much so that after all this time, I still haven't fully understood it.
However, there is one indicator that I have observed to be quite effective for capturing the peak range of rebounds, and I want to share it with my friends! — Bitcoin Risk Signal (BRS)
However, there is one indicator that I have observed to be quite effective for capturing the peak range of rebounds, and I want to share it with my friends! — Bitcoin Risk Signal (BRS)
Surprise! Absolutely a surprise!
This is the biggest prize I've ever won in my life! Before this, the biggest prize I won was a precious "Chaoshan" toothpaste......
In the Binance Square "100 BNB Grand Challenge" event, phase two, my article was selected as "Daily Featured Content" and I won a prize of 1 BNB. Thank you, Binance
, thank you, Yingge, and the event judging team for your recognition!
Maybe it was just lucky......
In this article on "Funding Structure + Position Structure = Market Direction," I correctly predicted the support and resistance levels in advance; the view that "short-term downside is limited, while upside resistance is smaller" aligns perfectly with BTC's current rebound. This article, which was previously restricted on Twitter, has now been reborn on Binance Square.
In the Binance Square "100 BNB Grand Challenge" event, phase two, my article was selected as "Daily Featured Content" and I won a prize of 1 BNB. Thank you, Binance
, thank you, Yingge, and the event judging team for your recognition!
Maybe it was just lucky......
In this article on "Funding Structure + Position Structure = Market Direction," I correctly predicted the support and resistance levels in advance; the view that "short-term downside is limited, while upside resistance is smaller" aligns perfectly with BTC's current rebound. This article, which was previously restricted on Twitter, has now been reborn on Binance Square.
That day has finally come...
When I opened my stock account, which was nearly worn smooth by time,
checking which stocks hadn't risen yet to buy a little for protection,
I was surprised to find there was still an ETF I hadn't fully sold before,
unintentionally holding it for 460 days and making a 50% profit,
instantly moved to tears of excitement...
These 460 days I devoted myself entirely to pursuing Web3,
only to miss the true love right in front of me.
Planting flowers intentionally, they don't bloom; planting willows casually, they flourish...
A-shares, won't you deceive me again this time?
When I opened my stock account, which was nearly worn smooth by time,
checking which stocks hadn't risen yet to buy a little for protection,
I was surprised to find there was still an ETF I hadn't fully sold before,
unintentionally holding it for 460 days and making a 50% profit,
instantly moved to tears of excitement...
These 460 days I devoted myself entirely to pursuing Web3,
only to miss the true love right in front of me.
Planting flowers intentionally, they don't bloom; planting willows casually, they flourish...
A-shares, won't you deceive me again this time?
Even in 2026, if it's a 'bear market,' it will still be an 'atypical bear market'
In the tweet posted on December 10, 2025, we calculated that the BTC price would need to drop to $62,000 (see citation) at that time to bring PSIP below 50%. The previous calculation on November 20 showed that the price would need to fall to $59,000 to achieve the same. Yesterday, I recalculated and the result remained $62,000.
The implication is that between November 20 and December 10, a large amount of low-cost holdings were swapped to high-cost positions (profit-taking), raising the overall cost basis. From December 10 to January 12, the volume of low-to-high swaps significantly decreased, and the overall cost basis remained almost unchanged, hence still $62,000.
The implication is that between November 20 and December 10, a large amount of low-cost holdings were swapped to high-cost positions (profit-taking), raising the overall cost basis. From December 10 to January 12, the volume of low-to-high swaps significantly decreased, and the overall cost basis remained almost unchanged, hence still $62,000.
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